This morning CBS News reported that Lagging In The Polls, Palin Shifts To Fear Tactics. Can anyone in their right mind take A Know Nothing Winky-Dinky seriously enough to fear the nonsense that comes randomly shooting out of her lipsticked trap? Apparently not in Virginia, where Obama now holds a double-digit lead over McCain. She keeps using words like "dangerous," "fearful" and "afraid" in the increasingly hysterical and desperate speeches the McCain team writes for her and it only reminds voters of John McCain's career-long erratic behavior, hair-trigger temperament, and of the serial hysteria his campaign has degenerated into.
USAToday noted that today was the end of a record-breaking registration campaign in half the states in the nation-- record-breaking for Democrats, heart-breaking for Republicans.
Democrats have added more than 800,000 voters and Republicans have lost 300,000 in eight of the most tightly fought states in the presidential race: Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire. Changes occur when voters switch parties or are removed from registration lists because they moved, died or haven't voted in recent elections.
No wonder McCain is so desperate and has decided to turn the rest of the campaign into a brutal slash and burn gutter exercise that even Karl Rove says is over the top and even Tom DeLay has qualms about!
And like Virginia, Ohio is also slipping further and further from McCain's clammy grasp. Yesterday's Columbus Dispatch reported that Obama is now up by 7 points statewide. If that holds, McCain needed bother staying up late for the 2 remaining debates. The sweetest part of McCain's nosedive is that he's dragging the entire Republican Party down with him, just the way he did in the special congressional elections in Illinois, Louisiana, and Mississippi, where 3 red districts rejected McCain and his candidates-- running the same kind of viciously negative campaign McCain is doing now-- for moderate Democrats supported by Obama. McCain's coattails look like they will be the most toxic in the history of the Republican Party.
In 2006 rubber stamp Republican Randy Kuhl beat security-oriented progressive Democrat Eric Massa 52%-48%. This year the two campaigns have around the same amount of money on hand (Massa- $534,000 and Kuhl $572,000). According to a Republican polling firm, McLaughlin & Associates, January showed Kuhl way ahead, 46-26%. That's a steep hill to climb. Eric has climbed it. Today's release of a Beneson Strategy Group poll has Eric at 47% and Kuhl trailing with 42%.
We're seeing results like this on the local levels everywhere in the country. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Al Franken (D-MN) have pulled ahead of incumbent Republican rubber stamps Gordon Smith and Norm Coleman. And national Republicans have virtually written off any chance Elizabeth Dole has for keeping her seat in North Carolina. Politico: "Top Republicans say they have no hope for Dole in North Carolina. 'There's no point in even counting the votes,' said a top McCain official." They say the only Republican chance for a pick-up in the Senate is if Lieberman makes his jump to their side official.
Similarly, there are no Democrats with endangered seats except for Chris Carney (PA) who has been voting like a Republican and deserves to lose his seat; unfortunately, even a reactionary scumbag like Carney will be helped by an Obama landslide. Heavily red House seats that are looking like they will elect Democrats in November include the at-large Alaska seat, currently held by bribe-taking Don Young, but even non-criminal types in the GOP are getting ready to start hunting for jobs on K Street after November. Some of the most likely Democratic prospects (all races where the Democrat is currently polling ahead or even):
Charlie Brown (CA-04)- up 5%
Alan Grayson (FL-08)- up 4%
Parker Griffith (AL-05)- up 5%
Jim Himes (CT-04)- dead heat
Walter Minnick (ID-01)- up 6%-- and yes, that's Idaho in a district with a PVI of R+19!
Betsy Markey (CO-04)- up 9%
Frank Kratovil (MD-01)- dead heat
Mark Schauer (MI-07)- up 6%
Gary Peters (MI-09)- up 4%
Ashwin Madia (MN-03)- up 5% (brand new poll)
Larry Kissell (NC-08)- up 11%
Martin Heinrich (NM-01)- up 6%
Harry Teague (NM-02)- up 4%
Dina Titus (NV-03)- up 11%
Michael McMahon (NY-13)- GOP has given up
Dan Maffei (NY-25)- up 1%
Steve Dreihaus (OH-01)- dead heat
Vic Wulsin (OH-02)- dead heat
Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15)- up 5%
John Boccieri (OH-16)- up 8%
Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03)- up 4%
Gerry Connolly (VA-11)- up 31%
Gary Trauner (WY-A-L)- dead heat
Most district have no polling available. If you're interested in helping your favorite Democrats in House races, there's a People For the American Way contest going on right now, where you can leverage even a small donation for your favorite candidate into a big check. Right now Judy Feder (VA-10), Gary Peters (MI-09) and Russ Warner (CA-26) are battling it out for the top slot, but it's very early going and already Marin Heinrich (NM-01, Dennis Shulman (NJ-05), and Debbie Cook (CA-46) are starting to move up. Click here to take a look.
And if you're wondering why Eric Massa took that gigantic jump in the polls, I think this video will help you understand: