Although we progressives don't like to contemplate the prospect of a Trump presidency, it would be wise to at least be prepared for such an eventuality, especially since polls show Clinton and Trump in a virtual tie. (Trump is now leading Clinton in Nate Silver's 538 analysis, down from a 75-25 Clinton lead about a month ago). Even if Trump loses, the dynamics of American politics and government will have changed considerably, and progressives need to think about how to deal with those changed dynamics.
There are obvious dangers for progressive policies with Trump in the White House. Clearly, Trump will go after Obamacare, tighten immigration policies and promote a law and order crackdown. If the Republicans retain the Senate - the House is pretty much guaranteed to remain Republican through 2022 because of gerrymandering - then Obamacare will likely be repealed, although it is unclear how quickly it will be replaced and with what.
Depending on the nature of Trump's anti-immigrant proposals, they are likely to be blocked by a Democratic Senate, or even watered down by a Republican Senate. However, Trump could go the executive order route, in which case Democrats would find themselves taking a similar tactic against Trump's executive orders as the Republicans took against Obama's actions. Trump might also use executive orders in law-and-order initiatives if his proposals risk running afoul of the Constitution or the Democratic Senate.
If incidents of domestic and foreign terrorism increase - as they are likely to -- a Trump administration might attempt a crackdown on civil liberties, which would certainly provoke a fight from progressives and even some libertarians on the right. However, since Trump is skilled at stoking public fears, he could probably succeed in winning over public support for limits on speech and movement, as well as beefed-up surveillance of suspect communities.
Another, less obvious but equally important outcome of a Trump presidency could be a severe economic decline. Most of Trump's trade and tax policies, not to mention the volatility of his personality and the political instability he represents, would likely impact economic growth and faith in the American economy. This could lead to more inflation, loss of jobs and financial instability. To counter these adverse economic effects that would hit middle-class, working-class and minority communities the hardest, progressives might have to make political alliances with some strange bedfellows - particularly the business community and big banks - who strongly oppose Trump's damaging economic proposals.
Similarly, Trump's nationalist and isolationist foreign policy could create lots of problems in our relations with other countries. His anti-China rants could conceivably lead to a trade war with China, our biggest creditor, and severely impact not only our economy, but also our national deficit and fiscal stability. And his get-tough attitude towards terrorism, as well as his "you-gotta-pay" approach to our allies, threatens to destabilize the globe. Here again, progressives may have to line up with a more globalist and interventionist world view to combat the xenophobic isolationism of Trump.
Obviously, Trump's personality - which has been a central focus of both of his campaign and of the Clinton campaign - will be critical in any Trump administration. It is probably inevitable that he will commit offenses that would be regarded as impeachable by many in Congress, and therefore it is important for progressives to think about how they might position themselves in an impeachment proceeding. Simple revenge or retribution cannot be the theme of an impeachment, as the Republicans learned from the Clinton impeachment.
There may be a few - very few - positives for progressives in a Trump presidency. For one thing, he has soundly rejected both establishment Republican and Tea Party orthodoxy, which may be good news for pro-choice supporters and those who support higher taxes on the wealthy. He also may be softer on climate change, bank regulation and other traditional conservative positions than either the establishment or Tea Party factions. However, the racism and xenophobia of his core supporters will spell trouble for minority communities, immigrants and other progressive constituencies.
Even if Trump loses, the political landscape will have changed dramatically. It is unlikely - even with a Democratic Senate and White House - that immigration reform, universal health care, strong environmental rules, increased taxes on the wealthy, infrastructure and education spending or a boatload of other progressive programs will make it into law. There will be an opportunity to change the direction of the country after the 2020 Census by correcting the Republican gerrymandering that will guarantee a Republican House until 2022. In the meantime, progressives would have to continue their uphill battle.