The prospects for President Obama's re-election have dimmed considerably in the past few months, but it is worth considering -- especially for his supporters -- what an Obama second term might look like. While the President's failings in the first term have been well chronicled, most recently in Ron Suskind's book Confidence Men, what are the chances for a different, more successful second term in the White House?
Although the economy will certainly seal Obama's fate, both in the election and in a second term, much will depend on the President himself. The rap on Obama during the campaign was that he was great at inspiring speeches but short on specific policies or experience. To a large extent, that criticism has been borne out by the events of his first term.
As described by Suskind and others, Obama has been a poor manager, often outmatched by advisers like Rahm Emmanuel and Larry Summers, who hijacked the domestic agenda and ran circles around the President in terms of implementing policy. Obama has also proven that while he doesn't exactly have a tin ear for politics, he certainly doesn't have the political acuity of a Bill Clinton or even a Ronald Reagan, both inside and outside the Beltway.
Having said that, Obama still has several things going for him. He is an inspiring speechmaker, better than either Reagan or Clinton, and possibly even FDR. While the Republicans like to blast his "empty rhetoric," Obama has an almost preternatural ability to lift his audiences to a loftier plain, especially on the knotty, divisive issues of our time. This alone can be a great gift of leadership if used properly.
And people still like him. Despite the plunge in his approval ratings and general pessimism about the country, the public likes Obama, even some of those who disagree with his policies. The criticisms of his performance as President are that he is weak, or that he has been mislead by his advisors or by powerful special interests. However, lots of people are still rooting for him to succeed. Compare this to the public view of George Bush, who was widely disliked at the end of his presidency, and even Bill Clinton, who people only grudgingly acknowledged was an effective leader despite his moral failings.
Assuming Obama overcomes the steep climb to re-election, what can he do differently in the second term? First of all, acknowledge his shortcomings -- at least to himself if not to the American public. After his historic election, Obama seemed determined to prove that he could excel at every aspect of the Presidency, despite his lack of experience. Obama is not a good manager and probably never will be. Instead of trying to fill that role, he should hire good people who have those skills and make them accountable. (Bill Daley as Chief of Staff was a first step in that direction).
Obama should also accept that his political instincts are far from perfect. Again, that does not present insurmountable problems, since there are lots of folks inside and outside the Beltway with highly tuned political instincts. He should hire them and listen to them. Axelrod, Plouffe and Jarrett are fine, but they are essentially loyalists -- other voices are needed for authentic balance.
If Obama is a poor manager with only middling political savvy, what does he have to offer America in a second term? The answer -- plenty. If he is re-elected, Obama still has the opportunity -- and it is a rare one for American presidents -- to be a transformational leader. In a very telling quote from Suskind's book, John Podesta, Clinton's Chief of Staff and head of Obama's transition team, describes what is probably Obama's greatest strength, and what separates him from brilliant political strategists like Clinton. "Obama draws people out of their comfort zone, " Podesta is quoted as saying. "He ends up making them rise to the occasion. He doesn't just synthesize and sell a solution. He's creating a space where solutions can happen."
In an era where America is undergoing a profound transformation in both its economic structure and its political culture, creating a national space for solutions may be the ultimate test of presidential leadership. Few presidents, with the exception perhaps of FDR and Lincoln, have had the opportunity, and challenge, to lead the nation through such an enormous transition. Any historian will acknowledge that it was neither strong managerial skills nor political instincts that made those leaders strong. Instead, it was their vision of America and its future that guided these presidents through years of failure and struggle. If Obama can develop a clear-eyed vision of America's future -- and of his own strengths and weaknesses as a leader -- then his second term holds great promise.