iPhone app iPad app Android phone app Android tablet app More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Ian Fletcher

GET UPDATES FROM Ian Fletcher
 

Is Romney for Real on Trade?

Posted: 09/09/11 09:10 AM ET

Some good news for once!

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's stand on trade issues, if he truly means what he says and goes the full distance with his published proposals, offers America the best shot at a real and sustained economic recovery that any major officeholder or candidate has yet offered.

His proposals aren't perfect, they aren't consistent, and I have no interest in endorsing the entirety of his economic philosophy, let alone his candidacy. But they are still an order of magnitude more serious about fixing America's catastrophic trade mess than what has been proposed elsewhere.

Like it or not, he's way ahead of Obama on this stuff.

Let's calibrate this by looking at some key excerpts from his campaign website publication entitled "Believe in America: Mitt Romney's Plan for Jobs and Economic Health." [My comments in brackets.]

AN ORDER TO SANCTION CHINA FOR UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES

"Direct the Department of the Treasury to list China as a currency manipulator in its biannual report and directs the Department of Commerce to assess countervailing duties on Chinese imports if China does not quickly move to float its currency."

[This is big. Currency manipulation is a huge part of China's surplus with the U.S. And to actually mention duties?! That's been unthinkable up to now. Obama certainly hasn't touched it.]

"Of course, opening markets must be a two-way street. For America truly to benefit in global commerce, we need to ensure there is access for our entrepreneurs to sell their high-quality products and services. This means that agreements must protect intellectual property from those who would violate the rules of free enterprise. Too often, trade agreements do not adequately address these concerns. Even when they do, actual enforcement lags."

[Aha! He's figured out that trade agreements on paper don't amount to anything. They have to be enforced, with real sanctions. This is radical.]

"President Obama has also singularly failed in handling commercial relations with China. He came into office with high hopes that displays of American goodwill toward Beijing would lead to better relations across all fronts. Predictably, the goodwill has not been reciprocated; China is driven by its own interests, not by appeals to its sentimentality. Having tried and failed with "engagement," the Obama administration now behaves as if the United States has no leverage in dealing with a country that routinely steals our designs, patents, brands, know-how, and technology..."

[Yup. Time to stop playing by Sermon on the Mount rules with a dictatorship.]

"Chinese companies have simply reverse-engineered American products, with no regard for the patents and other protections of intellectual property rights that are crucial to our own economic well-being. The Chinese government facilitates this behavior by forcing American companies to share proprietary technology as a condition of their doing business in China. A recent study by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce reports that international technology companies consider these practice to be "a blueprint for technology theft on a scale that the world has never seen before."

[Yup again.]

"China's unfair trade practices extend to the country's manipulation of its currency to reduce the price of its products relative to those of competing nations such as ours. While the extent and impact of the manipulation is widely debated, the practice provides an invisible subsidy to Chinese goods sold internationally and an invisible tariff on other nations attempting to sell in China. Despite making gestures to the contrary, China's government often excludes foreign goods from consideration for its government purchases. And it uses a variety of unfair practices--for instance, inventing regulations and standards that only Chinese companies can meet, and artificially lowering costs for Chinese companies-- to tilt the playing field in its favor. Instead of responding forcefully, the Obama administration has acted like a supplicant. Having borrowed hundreds of billions of dollars from Beijing to pay for its agenda, it has placed America in a weak position at the very moment when we need to stand tall."

[Ditto.]

CREATE REAGAN ECONOMIC ZONE

[Unfortunate nomenclature, obviously aimed at Republican primary voters, but the principle here is sound: you can't have free trade with everybody, only those who genuinely accept fair rules of the game.]

"But we can hardly rest there, for there is an opportunity to pursue a game-changing multilateral agreement among like-minded nations genuinely committed to the principles of open markets. As president, Mitt Romney will pursue the formation of a "Reagan Economic Zone." This zone would codify the principles of free trade at the international level and place the issues now hindering trade in services and intellectual property, crucial to American prosperity and that of other developed nations, at the center of the discussion."

"Such a partnership would be extraordinarily attractive to most developed nations, and to those developing nations that have embraced free enterprise and open markets. With membership open to any nation willing to abide by the rules, two primary U.S. objectives would be fulfilled. First, as the most open and innovative economies came together, the dynamism of the resulting economic zone would serve as a powerful magnet, drawing in an expanding circle of countries willing to abide by the rules in exchange for greater access to one another's markets. At the same time, it would also serve as a mechanism for confronting nations that violated trade rules while free-riding on the international system. Creating a large open market, and excluding countries that failed to respect the rule of law, would prevent cheaters from prospering and provide a major incentive for them to reform."

[Yup.]

"We also must resolutely counter efforts by unscrupulous exporters in China and elsewhere to evade the remedial measures we already impose in response to their unfair trade practices. Chinese exporters, for instance, sometimes ship their products to third-party countries and fraudulently declare the products as originating there to avoid remedies that have been imposed on unfairly traded goods. Such practices need to be brought to a swift end. As president, Mitt Romney will allocate the necessary resources to investigating the actual point of origin for suspect products arriving on our shores and impose harsher penalties on those who would circumvent our laws. The return on the increased investment in enforcement would be immediate and substantial."

[Yup.]

"American corporations should not be left in a position in which they are afraid to pursue their interests to the full extent of the law. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) in a Romney administration will be tasked with pursuing all significant claims of unfair trade practices. It will also take a far more active role in encouraging private firms that have been victimized to raise claims both in U.S. courts and at the WTO. If the USTR can be their advocate in and out of court, American companies and the country as a whole will be in a stronger position."

[Yup.]

IMPOSE TARGETED TARIFFS OR ECONOMIC SANCTIONS

[The "t" word! Gosh! Haven't heard that from anyone but fringe candidates like Trump.]

"Mitt Romney believes we need to consider the use of targeted unilateral and multilateral sanctions. For instance, if the United States identifies a Chinese firm or industry that is relying on unfair practices or misappropriated American technology for its competitive advantage, we should be in a position to impose punitive measures in response. If China makes it a priority to strong-arm Western corporations in industries with particularly valuable technologies, we should join with our allies to ensure that it does not obtain the technology transfers it seeks."

DESIGNATE CHINA A CURRENCY MANIPULATOR AND IMPOSE COUNTERVAILING DUTIES

"Current U.S. law requires that the Department of the Treasury release a biannual review in which it identifies any countries that are manipulating their currency to gain an unfair advantage. The Department of Commerce also has the power to find that Chinese currency policy constitutes an unfair subsidy to Chinese exporters, and to assess countervailing duties on Chinese products. The Obama administration has declined to take either action, effectively accepting China's problematic practices. That acceptance has to end. If China fails to move quickly to bring its currency to fair value, the Department of the Treasury in a Romney administration will designate China a currency manipulator and the Department of Commerce will impose countervailing duties."

[This last sentence, if taken seriously, would amount to the biggest action in defense of America's trade interests since Nixon imposed a 10% tariff in 1971.]

"The United States does not have to accept forever the practices that have led to a huge and seemingly perpetual trade deficit with China. We have opened our economy to China, and China must be persuaded to extend the same privilege to us. China's export-driven economy desperately needs access to our markets and innovations, and we have the leverage to demand that it competes on fair terms in return and provides similar access to its market for U.S. exporters. A Romney administration will work with Congress and our international partners to alter China's behavior. The Reagan Economic Zone will be a key instrument in that effort, offering China an attractive reward for better behavior as an alternative to aggressive responses to continued intransigence."

"The time has to come to lay out a series of steps that China must take to become a responsible member of the global economy. And the time has also come to lay out the consequences that would accompany its failure to make rapid progress toward that end. Despite what the Obama administration appears to believe, the United States is working from a position of strength. Mitt Romney understands that fundamental point and all that follows from it. He will seek to right our trade relationship with China and strengthen our commercial ties with the rest of the world. Nothing less than economic recovery is at stake."

[Yes, Gov. Romney, this is correct. We're never truly going to recover without fixing trade. You seem to be the only candidate who understands that.]

This above is all a very serious package, if it's not ("Hope and Change" anyone?) bluff and fluff designed to be thrown away once in office.

It might well be that, of course, as Mitt Romney is as corporate a candidate as they come, and the Fortune 500's opinion on standing up for the American economy (don't) is no secret. But equally, Romney may be well aware that big business is driving America over a cliff right now, and that somebody is going to have to save American capitalism from itself.

This is well-precedented in American history: it is roughly what both Presidents Roosevelt did, in different ways.

If Romney truly understands the underlying economics of our present trade mess, he knows that the present order is unsustainable. And he--and his backers--probably calculate that they'd rather have a Republican clean it up than a Democrat.

Romney, whose background is that of a serious businessman, not just a front man for business interests like Bush II or Obama, may well understand. (Unlike either of them, he actually knows enough to disagree with his own advisers on this stuff.)

Romney is clearly signalling to the business class that he's not a maniac on these issues. That's why he continues to support the pending trade agreements with Panama, Colombia, and South Korea. These are bad. But if we passed them and seriously implemented the policies Romney talks about above, we'd be infinitely better off than we are now.

Are you for real, Mitt? Give us a sign.

 
 
 

Follow Ian Fletcher on Twitter: www.twitter.com/IanFletcher

 
 
  • Comments
  • 84
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
Page: 1 2 3  Next ›  Last »  (3 total)
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Fred Scarran
02:34 PM on 09/24/2011
Talking head on TV said, "That's Obama channeling his inner Ronald Reagan."

Gawd.

Well the internationalists won, I don't see how anyone could possibly be an American nationalist.
10:14 PM on 09/19/2011
Romeny isn't perfect but as long as our current President has his head in the sand about where jobs come from and the alternatives on the Republican debate stage are . . . . well, you know, he looks like a pleasant compromise.

However, before you latch on to him it is really worth checking out former Democratic Congressman and Govenor Buddy Roemer who switched to the GOP and is now a dark horse presidential candidate. See the Navarro-Autry piece at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-navarro-and-greg-autry/democrats-may-get-flanked_b_967698.html
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Bob Kulong
10:11 PM on 09/12/2011
I would be skeptical about Romney as much as anyone, but I think this paragraph is important:

"Romney, whose background is that of a serious businessman, not just a front man for business interests like Bush II or Obama, may well understand. (Unlike either of them, he actually knows enough to disagree with his own advisers on this stuff.)"

That is what has been missing from our last few presidents, Clinton included. Basic competence and business literacy. Business and economics are so beyond the grasp of the likes of the Obama's or Bush's that they'll quickly defer to the advisors and lobbyists. Regardless, it's a positive development to see one of the leading candidates raise these issues when all other signs are so dismal.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Fred Scarran
01:44 AM on 09/15/2011
Bain Capital isn't exactly a manufacturing company, and Romney is no industrialist.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Bob Kulong
07:40 PM on 09/15/2011
That's true, but I'd give his work experience an edge over the community organizer and the Texas Rangers party-boy figurehead.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TheTightwireGuy
Attempting to balance reason and passion
01:08 PM on 09/12/2011
As someone who does not want the social conservatives to gain more power in the US, I am saddened by reading Dr. Fletcher's analysis. Because it is spot on.

And after the GOP presidential primary circus is over, with Romney winning his party's collective nod, this economic strategy will resonate with independent voters in a way that the Obama team's current economic plan does not. And Obama's political team has been pitching up this huge softball to the GOP by its failure to grasp the depth of and deal with the economic gutting of the US that unfair competition with China has caused over the past decade.

What is so disturbing is that Obama has, over the last two years, set himself up to fail in the 2012 election versus someone who could campaign as being a better economic steward, i.e. Romney-the-former-business-leader-who-knows-how-the-economy-works, by (a) repeatedly making the political argument that bipartisan policy is best, and (b) failing to demonstrate his own boldness in addressing the economic crisis our country is in. And while one can applaud his recent display of strength in arguing for action by the GOP-controlled Congress, what he calls for is not anywhere near enough to truly address the problem.
08:01 AM on 09/12/2011
I really enjoyed reading this article, since it seems to provide insight in to the total disconnect between politics, reality, business and the social fabric of a society here in the USA. Sadly, we are some what defenseless on all accounts. The "we" being the candidate.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
becky bradshaw
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth
10:08 PM on 09/11/2011
"A really efficient totalitarian state would be one in which the all-powerful executive of political bosses and their army of managers control a population of slaves who do not have to be coerced, because they love their servitude. To make them love it is the task assigned, in present-day totalitarian states, to ministries of propaganda, newspaper editors, and school teachers."

Aldous Huxley
photo
SoylentGreenIsPeople
You know how to use Google too !
12:17 PM on 09/11/2011
NO, Romney is not telling the truth.
Mankiw, Romney's economic advisor says,

"For example, passing the free trade agreement with South Korea, which has languished in Congress more than four years after first being negotiated, would be a step in the right direction. So would reining in the National Labor Relations Board; its decision to block Boeing from opening a nonunion plant in South Carolina may have been hailed by organized labor, but it surely did not hearten investors."

They call it bait and switch, Obama did the same thing with NAFTA in 2008 and sent his advisor Austan Goolsbee to the Mexican Consulate to tell them Obama didn't really mean what he was saying. Politicians can only get elected these days by deceiving the US public.
It's called Bait and switch.
http://michael-hudson.com/2011/08/discussing-obamas-motivations/
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
01:35 PM on 09/11/2011
Some more of Mr. Mankiw's work...

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2001854367_bushecon10.html
The Seattle Times: Nation & World: Bush report: Sending jobs overseas helps U.S.

"WASHINGTO­N — The movement of American factory jobs and white-coll­ar work to other countries is part of a positive transforma­tion that will enrich the U.S. economy over time, even if it causes short-term pain and dislocatio­n, the Bush administra­tion said yesterday.

The embrace of foreign "outsourci­ng," an accelerati­ng trend that has contribute­d to U.S. job losses in recent years and has become an issue in the 2004 elections, is contained in the president'­s annual report to Congress on the U.S. economy.

"Outsourci­ng is just a new way of doing internatio­nal trade," said N. Gregory Mankiw, chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisors, which prepared the report. "More things are tradable than were tradable in the past. And that's a good thing."

[snip]

Last year's Economic Report of the President predicted that 1.7 million jobs would be created in 2003. Instead, the nation lost 53,000 jobs. In Bush's three years in office, 2.2 million jobs have disappeare­d.

Since the Great Depression­, it has never taken this long for the economy to begin creating jobs after emerging from a recession. After the last recession ended in 1991, it took 14 months for employment to begin expanding. Current problems with the economy have gone on nearly twice as long, 26 months..."
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Fred Scarran
11:13 PM on 09/11/2011
Yup. I won't believe a candidate unless they declare themselves a Protectionist.
photo
guveqzero
Inventor and Innovator
11:10 AM on 09/11/2011
These policies are never too late. But the ghost of Smoot has haunted too many professors for far too long to let them be seriously considered. Like Obama, once in office the rogue students will persuade the next guy that it is folly. Therefore, victory must be achieved with the professors first, then it doesn't matter who is elected to office. We actually need to make the whole process even more irrelevant to make it work, simply because consensus comes from common experience.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
becky bradshaw
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth
11:40 AM on 09/11/2011
It would be much easier to evaluate Obama if he had been elected King instead of President. As President, he needs the cooperation of Congress. It has not been a secret. The Republicans have been sabotaging everything that Obama has tried to accomplish.

It is easy for us Monday-morning quarterbacks to say he should have let the government shutdown, but he was faced with no-win choice on multiple occasions. Anyone who fails to hold the Republican leaders more than 90% responsible, has not been paying attention.

Reference: http://auburnjournal.com/detail/185273.html
photo
jeffrey678
You don't happen to make it. You make it happen.
10:44 AM on 09/11/2011
President Obama did the same thing to get elected in 2008. Remember ?
photo
HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Ian Fletcher
Economist, Coalition for a Prosperous America
08:05 PM on 09/11/2011
Sure, but that doesn't, in and of itself, prove anything.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Fred Scarran
11:14 PM on 09/11/2011
Both major parties, Green, Libertarian, are all globalist, it proves a conspiracy.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
DAE
02:28 AM on 09/11/2011
Its a bogus program. First US Multinationals are the ones who support China's depreciated currency. They've made billions upon billions doing so. Don't expect Romney to follow through on his proposal. Anyway China's currency is appreciating faster now than ever and its planned to continue to do so. Second the overall Chinese trade surplus is shrinking fast and many industrialized countries such as Germany, South Korea and Japan frequently have a trade surplus with China. So its up to us to compete with other foreign manufacturers who are doing very well in China. We already have mechanisms to challenge various Chinese trade policies and we do, just as they challenge ours. Any change in our trade regime with China will not go over well with corporate America. As they will be calling the shots with a Romney Administration, don't hold your breadth. Third as the Yuan appreciates so does the value of China's economy in dollar terms. China's GDP in Chinese terms is 33 trillion Yuan. At 6.5 Yuan per Dollar that equates to about $5 trillion. If the Yuan was valued at 4 Yuan per Dollar (a 40% appreciation) the Chinese economy would be valued at $8.25 trillion. The favorable ramifications of that for the US are questionable.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
becky bradshaw
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth
09:09 AM on 09/11/2011
The primary reason that American industry doesn't compete with China is a lack of investment. If Texas Instruments builds a factory in China instead of Texas, we will import those parts. It has happened with semiconductors, cellphones, computers, and soon, automobiles.

Reference: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704300604575554113034347850.html
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
DAE
11:58 AM on 09/11/2011
That's my point. China didn't force Texas Instruments to invest their. They did it on their own volition. US Corporations have no commitment to their mother country. They are only interested in the bottom line. The Chinese government has a stake in most large Chinese corporations and they are committed to developing the Chinese economy. Our corporations are not committed to developing our economy any longer. Corporate charters used to require corporations to work for the public interest or the state could revoke their right to exist. We need to go back to that system.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
DAE
03:51 PM on 09/11/2011
Whatever. You do realize Taiwan is claimed by China but is a separate political and economic entity.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
becky bradshaw
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth
05:28 PM on 09/11/2011
Taiwan and China are at the same time separate and combined. The industrial areas of China that work with the United States, are more managed by Taiwan than by the government in Beijing. Most of the Chinese companies that we hear about, for example Foxconn, are actually Taiwanese companies, with a factory(s) in China. But both sides do release venomous rhetoric from time to time.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
mrclark
I search for the America I believed in as a boy.
12:19 AM on 09/11/2011
If Romney starts to push this he will become the next President. Obama is very vulnerable to a candidate with a populist tone even if he is a republican. Obama's record bears out his stances on issues and it isn't real pretty. The President hasn't run the country like he campaigned and that strengthens the republican candidates hand against him as well.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
becky bradshaw
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth
07:24 PM on 09/10/2011
The publication referred to in Mr. Fletcher's article, "Believe in America: Mitt Romney's Plan for Jobs and Economic Health," was removed from the Romney Website yesterday (try clicking on "publication" link in the 5th paragraph).

It apparently is not a position paper that Mitt Romney will endorse. Where does Romney stand on any issue? He takes both sides of every argument.
photo
HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Ian Fletcher
Economist, Coalition for a Prosperous America
08:06 PM on 09/11/2011
The publication was moved. Google it.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
becky bradshaw
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth
09:31 PM on 09/11/2011
With Google, I found: (http://www.mittromney.com/blogs/mitts-view/2011/09/believe-america-my-plan-jobs-and-economic-growth), but it does not include many of the excerpts included in your article.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
thorolyfedup
thoroly disillusioned
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
becky bradshaw
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth
09:31 PM on 09/11/2011
Nope, that's not it.
05:10 PM on 09/10/2011
I'm glad to see Romney address trade. If he promises to END H-1b work visas and related work visas he has my vote.
Obama actually wants more work visas.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Fred Scarran
07:35 AM on 09/10/2011
You know what's great about globalization? You can be working for a company which is owned/invested by a foreigner, so increasing taxes on the rich won't effect your job.

The more globalization, the less applicable the Laffer Curve and trickle down/supply side economics becomes.

Tax the rich
Tax the rich
Tax the rich

Everyone chant along.
05:08 PM on 09/10/2011
End free trade
End free trade
End free trade
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Malcolm Hensley
Last of the Reagan Republicans
05:40 PM on 09/10/2011
To all Republicans by now you should have noticed that trickle down economics does not work if the rich can invest off-shore and then export back to the U.S.!!!

Free trade is incompatible with trickle down economics! Unless you count sending the money to fast developing nations to help their poor!

Charity should start at home.

The best current choice for President as long as you are a working man is Mitt Romney!

President Obama is still to close to Wall Street - who would have thought it???!?!?!
08:51 PM on 09/09/2011
The RMB will as soon DROP in exchange rate than rise, especially if the export trend (dropped like a rock) continues. THEN WHAT?

As some other posters point out, the floating of the RMB would also mean the end of the Greenback as major reserve currency. With that, no more guaranteed right to print dollars "on demand" (no actual printing is involved - it is all done electronically with the press of a button). No more trillions of foreign money buying Treasuries and GSE's.

It would be a rather different world.