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Ian Fletcher

Ian Fletcher

Posted: February 11, 2011 10:07 PM

I'd like to respond to those commentators (Don Boudreaux, Dan Griswold, and others) who deny that American manufacturing is in decline.

These critics ask how American manufacturing can possibly be in decline when US manufacturing output is at an all-time high.

This sounds like a reasonable objection to the claims of decline made by myself and others. But it's not.

Here's the problem: decline is always a relative term, so the question, if one asserts that American manufacturing is in decline, is what is the appropriate level of American manufacturing output?

Critics of the decline thesis tacitly assert that the appropriate level is "more than yesterday," so if our manufacturing output is going up, all seems to be well. Nothing simpler!

Unfortunately, the only rational standard for how much America should produce is how much Americans wish to consume. Because the only way to consume is either to produce what you wish to consume, or produce something else you can exchange for it.

And this is where American manufacturing is clearly falling short, because America is running a huge trade deficit in manufactured goods, and we don't produce enough of anything else (raw materials, services) to cover the gap. So instead we borrow and sell off existing assets to pay for imports.

If Americans were willing to consume less, our manufacturing output would be just fine. But I don't know a lot of people eagerly volunteering to accept a lower living standard.

At some point, it all comes out in the wash. Either America must start producing more, or consuming less. And the longer we remain in denial about the fact that manufacturing is a sick sector in this country, the more likely it will be the latter.

Another way to look at this problem is to observe that Don Boudreaux's impressive figures about how "measured in inflation-adjusted dollars, U.S. manufacturing output in 2009 was about ten percent higher than it was in 2000" come into proper focus when you remember that our overall economy was 32% bigger in 2009 than in 2000.

So in fact, manufacturing isn't booming, it's standing pat. And while there's no intrinsic reason manufacturing has to hold steady as a percentage of the economy, it sure as heck does have to stay big enough to match our consumption levels, which it isn't doing.

 
 
 
I'd like to respond to those commentators (Don Boudreaux, Dan Griswold, and others) who deny that American manufacturing is in decline. These critics ask how American manufacturing can possibly be in...
I'd like to respond to those commentators (Don Boudreaux, Dan Griswold, and others) who deny that American manufacturing is in decline. These critics ask how American manufacturing can possibly be in...
 
 
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03:00 PM on 02/15/2011
It should be seen in absolute terms, but the key is whether or not productivity is in decline?
JNarragansett
Check your premises
11:26 AM on 02/15/2011
Unfortunately, the only rational standard for how much [the Fletcher Household] should produce is how much [the Fletcher Household] wish to consume. Because the only way to consume is either to produce what you wish to consume, or produce something else you can exchange for it.

I guess this means you need to quit your service job and get into manufacturing, or acknowledge that your point really isn't about manufacturing at all because there are a variety of things that we can trade for manufactured goods.
RTIII
Poster of over 0.0135% of all HufPost comments
12:28 PM on 02/16/2011
"there are a variety of things that we can trade for manufactur­ed goods. "

Maybe, but I'd like to see your list of what we ARE trading for manufactured goods - other than just "dollars", which fails to answer the question. The truth is, our balance of trade, whatever in for whatever out, is WAY out of whack and the house of cards we have now cannot stand long-term.
JNarragansett
Check your premises
01:58 PM on 02/16/2011
What is the balance of your trade with the grocery store? Would you be better off if you refused to buy anything from a grocery store until that store started buying things from you? How can you just give them "dollars"?
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Ian Fletcher
Economist, Coalition for a Prosperous America
01:21 PM on 02/16/2011
But you've precisely proved my point.

If we don't produce and sell goods and/or services worth what we consume, then we are either running down our savings or going into debt.

U.S. agricultural exports aren't even remotely big enough to balance our trade, and we run a deficit in raw materials due to oil.

We run a surplus in services, but it's going down due to offshoring.
JNarragansett
Check your premises
01:54 PM on 02/16/2011
You concede that this in no way illuminates the quality of our manufacturing because it is in no way limited to manufacturing. That means it does not counter the fact that manufacturing is at an all time high.
JNarragansett
Check your premises
01:57 PM on 02/16/2011
Also, since you have finally understood how this logic works just as well at the household level. You have an enormous trade deficit with the grocery store, the clothing store, car manufacturers, etc. How much does that trade deficit worry you?
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Konnie
Really South Carolina??
11:22 AM on 02/14/2011
well until american manufacturing decides which side it's on nothing it going to help. it's a circle,
put american workers on the factory floor building products americans and other american companies can buy/want to buy/will feel proud to buy and the worker will spend his paycheck buying what his paycheck will buy right here in america.

bidness needs to promote single payer universal medicare for all and get that monkey off their backs/bottom lines once and for all. then they need to in source all those jobs, and broadcast that as patriotic.

no one has tried advertising that MADE IN AMERICA was the alternative to RAISING TAXES.
RTIII
Poster of over 0.0135% of all HufPost comments
12:30 PM on 02/16/2011
Great post, right on, new fan.
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10:24 AM on 02/14/2011
A profitable plant being offshored...

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/09/29-11
Memo to Labor Movement: Follow UE's Lead and Fight Corporate Outsourcing | CommonDreams.org

"...In the case of Haskon, the plant targeted for closing has been a consistent money-maker for Esterline Technologies, based in Bellevue, Wash. The company has been a major defense contractor and the beneficiary of at least $66.9 million in taxpayer dollars from 2000 to 2009. This stream of tax dollars was very helpful in pumping up Esterline’s net earnings to $119.8 million last year. The federal contracts also helped Esterline CEO Robert W. Cremin to cream off $6,731,506 in total compensation in 2009. CFO magazine recently reported, “the company's defense contracts assure it a solid base of revenue for years to come."

Yet Esterline—the beneficiary of so much taxpayer-provided revenue, is moving rapidly to shut down Haskon, which has been producing sophisticated silicone gaskets and door-seals for all the major airplane manufacturers and the federal government for the past 80 years. Esterline will thereby add 100 more people to the ranks of the jobless in Taunton, a city of 56,000 where the unemployment rate is already at 9.9%.

[snip]

The struggle to save jobs at Haskon is precisely the kind of fight in which labor needs to invest enormous resources. Clearly, putting all of labor’s eggs in the Democratic basket is one investment that has not paid off."
RTIII
Poster of over 0.0135% of all HufPost comments
12:33 PM on 02/16/2011
The closings of profitable plants in the USA has been happening in large numbers since roughly late in Clinton's presidency when the incentives shifted.

Until we make this painful to business, they'll continue to go where they can make the very most money, not just make money.

One vital aspect of this is the abdication of our soverigenty to these so-called "free trade" deals that excoriate our environmental and labor values and in which we lower tarriffs and our competitors do not - hardly fair (or "free").
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12:52 PM on 02/16/2011
Amen!...

http://www.citizen.org/documents/FinanceReregulationFactSheetFINAL.pdf
To Rescue Main Street, We Need to Curb the WTO

"...The WTO rules require deregulati­on – and lock-in – of financial services that countries “liberaliz­e” under these terms.

[snip]

For instance, the Glass-Stea­gall Act created a firewall between commercial and investment banks to prevent the former from speculatin­g with consumers’ savings. But the U.S.’ 1997 FSA commitment­s noted an intent to change Glass-Stea­gall to conform with WTO rules. The Gramm-Leac­h-Bliley Act, which did so, passed in 1999 – the year the FSA went into effect....­"

The WTO is the global government people feared the UN would become.
08:43 AM on 02/14/2011
I have to tell you. I was in IKEA this weekend and bought about 12 items. My mother and I stopped to check where the items were manufactured. Out of all 12 items, EVERY SINGLE ITEM was made in China. Seriously. Nothing is made in America any more. How sad is that.
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09:58 AM on 02/14/2011
http://www.onesourcechina.com/
Import Caskets from China for Thousands Less Than What US Manufacturers Charge
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cyclone70
When one facepalm isn't enough
10:32 AM on 02/14/2011
I am thinking of just making my own pine box
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cyclone70
When one facepalm isn't enough
10:31 AM on 02/14/2011
would seem a bit strange to me to go to a scandanavian furniture store to buy chinese made funiture
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tacevad
American SS Card Carrying Socialist
08:28 AM on 02/14/2011
It is not the abilities needed to make things in the US, It is not the drive of the work ethic here, it IS the GREED that has driven the jobs from our shores.
To Those who say we can make 10 cents more profit on making something there versus here I say we need a Government willing to tax that someting 10 cents more IF it is not made here. Yes the prices we pay will increase but we will still have the jobs that will pay the bills.
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BBackSoon
Hello, I must be going.
11:56 AM on 02/14/2011
You are trying to be rational, that will never do, the Powers that be will not allow you to mess up their Offshore dream.
07:11 AM on 02/14/2011
This post by Ian Fletcher was about manufacturing. Instead of debating the arguments put forth by the author, the commenter "luminavi" hijacked the post to clobber it with relentless attacks on India and Indians. Since Indian-made imports in manufacturing comprise of a tiny tiny share of US' total manufacturing imports (which are heavily dominated by Chinese imports, followed by other countries such as Japan, Germany, Mexico, Canada and others), the commenter's diversion was off-topic and it did a disservice to the debate sought by the author.

I invite the readers to explore the extensive set of data and links I've posted below, but, to summarize,

2009:
US GDP: ~ $14,500 billion

US Total Imports: $1,945.7 bn
-- US Imports from India: $33.7 bn

US Total Exports: $1,570.8 bn
-- US exports to India: 26.5 bn

US Total Trade Deficit: $374.9 bn
-- US Trade Deficit with India: $7.2 bn

Trade numbers above are for combined goods and services trade. Looking at services trade (which includes outsourcing transactions such as call centers) alone, again for 2009:
-- US services imports from India: $12.4 billion
-- US services exports to India: $9.9 billion
07:22 AM on 02/14/2011
Contd.

A quick glance at the numbers shows that US' trade with India is both small as well as reasonably balanced. In addition, Sec. Clinton's 2009 visit and Pres. Obama's 2010 visit to India netted a further $50-55 bn US exports to India (over a period of time). I have posted some information on the deals signed in my comments below.

Finally, while China holds $900 bn (21%) of US' external debt of about 4.3 trillion USD (Japan 20.4%, UK 11.1%, etc), India held less than 1% of US' debt. That's "proof in the pudding" that the anti-India propaganda is not well-founded in facts.
luminavi
Love kicking over anthills on both left and right.
03:51 PM on 02/14/2011
You know, if you want to write a BLOG, you should ask HP, and not try to pathetically post that data here in the comments section. It just makes you look ignorant and desperate when you say stuff like "diversion was off-topic" or "disservice to the debate" and "hijacked the post." Give credit to the moderators for being wise enough that in commentary, anything and everything is fair game.

People are waking up. They're catching on. Ohio has already banned outsourcing. I think Indiana and Wisconsin will follow next. The November 2010 elections have brought forth a new wave of leaders and politicians who are more sensitive now to the clamor of their people. We just need to keep up the pressure.

Then it'll happen in Milwaukee, and Chicago. Then eventually New York and California. We've got a long ways to go. But it'll happen, because Americans are stubborn, resilient and smart. When the tough gets going, we fight back.

Fair and balanced trade? If that's the reality, then you have nothing to worry about, right? But if it so happens it ISN'T, well ... 2012 is coming. People who want to be President better do something about this issue, cuz they're not gonna win if they don't!
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cyclone70
When one facepalm isn't enough
06:41 AM on 02/15/2011
Probably won't happen in IN as long as Mitch Daniels is the states outsourcer in chief
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MSROADKILL612
love auto biographys. any appS to write mine?
07:08 AM on 02/14/2011
One advantage European workers have is that few indians speak german for example (not that they speak intelligible english either). I refuse to listen to a pitch and struggle to understand every sentence. I am polite but firm about it.
07:20 AM on 02/14/2011
India was a false diversion created by one zealous anti-India commenter here. Call centers have very little to do with the topic of discussion of this post, i.e. manufacturing, and the transactions involving outsourcing of call centers to India are worth only about $3 to 4 billion, a mere drop in US' overall trade of about $2 trillion imports and $1.5 billion exports. The primary culprit contributing to US' huge trade deficits in manufacturing are China trade deficits (US' goods trade deficit with China in 2010: $273 billion), followed by a handful of other countries not including India. Please see my earlier comment above: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/deCruz/yes-american-manufacturin_b_822280_77271303.html
luminavi
Love kicking over anthills on both left and right.
02:44 PM on 02/14/2011
Oh, are you referring to me, Desi? I'm not anti-India --- trust me, I want both Indians and Chinese thrown out. It just so happens 75% of the H1-B and L1 visas are dominated by people from India :)

We may have a much bigger trade deficit with China, but we have a LABOR deficit with India. Millions of our jobs have been shipped there, and downright abuse of our visa programs is being done over here.

Call it a "false diversion" all you want. People here know better. If you love India you so much and defend it so eagerly, why don't you just go back there? Or do you want to have it both ways? Be a "citizen" here and yet take part in the exploitation?

If you really CARED about your people back home, you'd be telling people here of how badly they're being treated, and how high employee turnover is. But, as I'd mentioned before, we KNOW where you're coming FROM. You care for neither country, just your own selfish self-interests.
01:26 PM on 02/14/2011
You certainly have a point here. One of the advantages of English speakers is that they usually don't have to bother learning multiple foreign languages, as nearly everyone else around the world speaks English. In a globalized economy, however, that advantage backfires.
I live in Europe and, same as in the US, manufacturing jobs with lower qualifications are being outsourced. White collar and service jobs, on the other hand, are relatively safe, because of the language barriers. There simply aren't that many people in the world, much less in developing countries, that do speak German, Italian, Dutch, French, etc. That means less competition for European workers.
The simple fact that English is such a prominent language globally, becomes a disadvantage in that context.
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parlimentMike
Terrorists keep you in fear
06:49 AM on 02/14/2011
But this is the "new" economy the old rules don't apply. We have voted time and time again against reality since 1980. War is safety, Cutting spending on People is a moderate position, and continuing failed policies just a little while longer will fix our problems.
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02:28 AM on 02/14/2011
Question for deCruz.

Does India have universal health care, like China ?

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14986-worlds-largest-health-system-rejects-free-market.html
World's largest health system rejects free market - health - 20 October 2008 - New Scientist

"Free-market economic reforms rolled out across the Chinese health system in 1978 have led to a collapse in healthcare provision for a fifth of the world's population, researchers have concluded.

The Chinese government, recognising the disparities in access to healthcare between the urban rich and rural poor, is planning to overhaul the world's largest health system. The plan, entitled "Healthy China 2020", aims to restore universal access to primary healthcare by 2010..."

U.S. workers may lose their job-based health insurance:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/28/health-care-tax-break-deficit_n_788852.html
Job-Based Health Care Threatened

"WASHINGTO­N — Job-based health care benefits could wind up on the chopping block if President Barack Obama and congressio­nal Republican­s get serious about cutting the deficit.

Budget proposals from leaders in both parties have urged shrinking or eliminatin­g tax breaks that help make employer health insurance the leading source of coverage in the nation and a middle-cla­ss mainstay...:
03:07 AM on 02/14/2011
India has government-run free healthcare service for the poor, and traditionally, large companies, AFAIK, provide free clinics for their employees on campuses. I don't know much about the situation with more recent modern IT and other companies, but I believe most of them provide health insurance to their employees.

China likely has a stronger healthcare system now, but they are 4 times richer than India (per-capita GDP wise), they have 10-20 times the dispensable income that India has (due to large trade surpluses China enjoys with the US and many other countries), and their economy is controlled tightly by the government (which makes centralized healthcare a lot easier), whereas Indian government depends on taxes collected as in the US for their social welfare programs.
03:56 AM on 02/14/2011
should read as: 'whereas the Indian government depends solely on tax revenues for their social welfare programs, as is the case in the US.'
01:38 AM on 02/14/2011
I don't agree. No other could have manufactured the proof of Iraq's WMDs the way we did.
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Berettasskeeter
For what we are about to receive, may we be truly
01:58 PM on 02/14/2011
What proof was manufactured? The US took out several tons of yellow-cake uranium, which Plame's husband said didn't exist. There is some evidence, from military and inspector sources, that Saddam was pulling the wool over the inspectors' eyes the whole time, removing, what, bathroom tissue from some of the facilities to be inspected? Also that the Russians were moving equipment, and what, toilet bowl sanitizer, from the country?!
Further, Saddam used WMD's against Iran and against his own people. How is that proof manufactured?!
What evidence was manufactured?

Semper fi
04:42 PM on 02/14/2011
Sorry for the format. There's lots more if you look.

Chemical weapon attacks
See also: Iraqi chemical warfare
Location Weapon Used Date Casualties
Haij Umran Mustard August 1983 fewer than 100 Iranian/Kurdish
Panjwin Mustard October–November 1983 3,001 Iranian/Kurdish
Majnoon Island Mustard February–March 1984 2,500 Iranians
al-Basrah Tabun March 1984 50-100 Iranians
Hawizah Marsh Mustard & Tabun March 1985 3,000 Iranians
al-Faw Mustard & Tabun February 1986 8,000 to 10,000 Iranians
Um ar-Rasas Mustard December 1986 1,000s Iranians
al-Basrah Mustard & Tabun April 1987 5,000 Iranians
Sumar/Mehran Mustard & nerve agent October 1987 3,000 Iranians
Halabjah Mustard & nerve agent March 1988 7,000s Kurdish/Iranian
al-Faw Mustard & nerve agent April 1988 1,000s Iranians
Fish Lake Mustard & nerve agent May 1988 100s or 1,000s Iranians
Majnoon Islands Mustard & nerve agent June 1988 100s or 1,000s Iranians
South-central border Mustard & nerve agent July 1988 100s or 1,000s Iranians
an-Najaf -
Karbala area Nerve agent & CS March 1991 Unknown

(Source:[25])# ^ a b "Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq’s WMD, Chapter 5 - Iraq’s Chemical Warfare Program". September 30, 2004. https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd_2004/chap5.html. Retrieved 2007-09-13.
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12:07 AM on 02/14/2011
Mr. Fletcher could have just stated "Yes, America Really Is In Trouble", since there are few jobs immune to offshoring; e.g. police.

Any job that can be performed at a desk or a computer can be performed overseas for much less; e.g.:

o computer programmer

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=4ea_1195705444
LiveLeak.com - "30 Days: Outsourcing" (2006) (Part 1/2)

The "star" is Chris Jobin, a programmer whose job was outsourced to India. He traveled to India and stayed for 30 days as an employee of a call center.

o accountant
o architect
o engineer
o radiologist
o car designer
o legal services:

http://www.manufacturingnews.com/news/10/0126/outsourcing.html
Outsourcing Firms And Foreign Countries Target More American Service Industries, Especially U.S. Law Firms

The medical industry is being globalized, per the Price Waterhouse Cooper report from 2006:

http://www.eucomed.org/upload/pdf/tl/2005/extranet/communications/resources/healthcast2020.pdf
HealthCast 2020: Creating a Sustainable Future

"...England builds a patient safety reporting system on same concept as aviation safety system in U.S.

The Philippines export nurses around the globe.

The U.S. turns to Indian and Australian companies for outsourcing radiology readings

Companies in South Africa contract with the NHS in England for a variety of surgical procedures

Australia enhances U.S.’s DRG system, which is subsequently adapted by Singapore, France and Germany.

Pharmaceutical makers move clinical trials from U.S. and Europe to India..."
luminavi
Love kicking over anthills on both left and right.
01:09 AM on 02/14/2011
"Three and a half million jobs could be outsourced to places like India."

That video was FIVE YEARS ago. So at this rate, it's pretty much more than FIVE MILLION jobs that have been outsourced.

Well, golly gee, that's our unemployment problem right THERE, isn't it?
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Paul Andrews
How To Absolutely Secure Your Computer
01:28 AM on 02/14/2011
@luminavi yes you are right. If we brought those jobs back from india, most of our problems would dissappear. We the people have the power if we choose to use it. The people in EGYPT showed everybody that if the public decides to take control we can. we need to get organized.
Also I have an ongoing venture where i attempt to help people find good jobs.
see my link:
http://youcanmakemoneywithfacebook.blogspot.com/
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cyclone70
When one facepalm isn't enough
10:35 AM on 02/14/2011
I was watching PBS Nightly Business report about a year ago. They had one of India's commerce ministers on for an interview. He said that India is rapidly developing the infrstructure to support the influx of as many as 40 million outsourced jobs.

This corrersponds to economist Alan Blinder's comments that as many as 40 million US jobs are at risk for outsourcing
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peacekitten
primum non nocere.
10:10 PM on 02/13/2011
until our government develops the spine to recognize that it has a responsibility to manage certain aspects of the economy for the benefit of the average person and not the pseudo-aristocracy, this is not going to change.

penalize corporations that offshore jobs and deny them access to the american markets for two to five years.  if they have already sent all their manufacturing overseas, impose tariffs that are high enough to negate the profit they expect to take and then some.  

germany has made a mockery of the canard that our corporations must use slave labor to stay competitive.  germany has the highest labor costs in the world, strong labor unions, enjoys a standard of living we can only dream about, and runs trade SURPLUSES with the rest of the world every quarter.  not only that, but germany also has plenty of very, very rich people.

anything short of this is no solution at all.
luminavi
Love kicking over anthills on both left and right.
10:55 PM on 02/13/2011
You speak truth, Peacekitten. Keep it up. We need to educate others and make people more aware of what's going on about offshoring.

And yes, if Germany could manage their globalization properly, in a good way, without either isolating itself, or destroying the employment of its people, so can WE, darn it.
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RunningBecky
Runner, nurse, chess player
12:20 AM on 02/14/2011
"Until our government develops the spine....". But how? In our dysfunctional wonderland we now live in, if this is how the corperations want it, this is how it'll be because any politician with enough spine to REALLY stand up to them will be eliminated the next election. Every politician knows this. Germany has a functional government and an understanding of what it takes to make a society work.
Tom Hartmann tells the story of a German CEO who when interviewed by a conservative American reporter about how mad he must be to be paying 50% income tax, he finally said "no" because, "I don't want to be a rich man in a poor country." There are a couple US CEO's who would say that, but most just want NO TAXES, export jobs, cut labor costs (wages) and don't give a "darn" about our country anymore. Huggs Becky PS I do agree with what you said though.
luminavi
Love kicking over anthills on both left and right.
01:15 AM on 02/14/2011
How? Here's how: we keep blogging, writing, talking about this issue. We inform and educate others, starting with our families and friends. At this point, it's enough to just spread the word.

Our goal: to make this THE ISSUE FOR 2012. The powers that be are going to scrambling for our votes, right? Well, we make them either LIVE OR DIE ON THIS ISSUE.

I don't care if it's Obama. Or Sarah Palin. If Obama won't man up and say enough is enough and go against the Chamber of Commerce, then we kick him out. If Sarah Palin promises to kill outsourcing faster than she can skin a moose, then let's campaign for her. And vice versa. We need to move past obsolete ideological differences, and hold our leaders accountable on the ISSUES.

MAKE OUTSOURCING THE ISSUE FOR 2012.
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democrats for life
republicans need not apply
09:27 PM on 02/13/2011
we should make all the republican congress go to China for a year and make them work for 20 dollars per week at a manufacturing plant over there and see how they like it
luminavi
Love kicking over anthills on both left and right.
01:20 AM on 02/14/2011
Good idea. We send the Reds to China, and the Blues to India. Make them work for 20 dollars a week at a call center in Mumbai, and let's see how they like it, too.

Seriously man, both Repubs and Dems have sold us out to outsourcing. Greed crosses party lines and national borders. It's time to close ranks, fight back and kill outsourcing.
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09:27 PM on 02/13/2011
read Don Boudreaux's response here
http://cafehayek.com/2011/02/ron-boudreaux-responds-to-ian-fletcher.html