The Job Report In Context

The headline number you'll be hearing is 663,000, which is from the survey of businesses (the establishment survey). The population survey (where they call households) show's a reduction in employment of 861,000 jobs, with 161,000 leaving the workforce, for a total increase in unemployment of 694,000 (you aren't counted as unemployed if you've given up looking.)

The official unemployment rate jumped from 8.1 to 8.5%.

The only sector still adding jobs is the health sector, though not by much. Goods producing workers are being hammered, taking almost half the losses despite accounting for less than a sixth of the economy. The US continues to shed precisely those jobs it needs in order to deal with its addiction to borrowing from foreigners to buy foreign produced goods.

The establishment survey is generally considered more accurate, though the household captures losses and gains of self-employed workers.

Employment is generally considered a lagging indicator, and the general consensus at this point amongst economists is that the leading indicators are beginning to turn around. I think they're calling it a bit early, but I expect that when the "recovery" does come it will initially be a jobless recovery, similar to those of the early 2000 and '90s recessions. When jobs do start to be created they will not be created fast enough, or in great enough quantities to make up the job losses, and the economy will shake apart due to inflation into the next recession long before all jobs have been regained. I wouldn't be surprised if this occurs by late 2010 or early 2011, since the actual stimulus spending is neither sufficient nor well put together.

Remember that any "recovery" won't hit you for quite some time unless you're attached somehow to the spigot of money that Bernanke and Geithner are spewing into the financial sector.

In the meantime I'd expect that we're going to see quite a few more devastating months. I wouldn't expect to see any job gains before 2010, and they won't be very large. I would, however, expect to start seeing some inflation in parts of the economy, while deflation continues in other areas.

Comments

[Overtone]

A Human Investment Tax Credit program was designed to generate 3 to 6 million new jobs and encourage between 1 to 4 million men and women to become self-employed.

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There are now two versions. The full 52 page document contains a new economic analysis. A shorter version contains the Summary and a total of 15 pages. The tax incentives in the Human Investment Tax Credit program have been updated and can be debated and voted into law.

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[MilwaukeeDan]

Sir, the real rate is almost twice that number. I'm just not as optimistic as you on how quickly we recover. Where will the jobs come from? Are we going to expand the crooked "financial industry" again? I just don't see it. Real jobs with real pay are what drives healthy economies, not more debt, as those in Washington want us to believe. Another issue most won't bring up is most business owners are Republicans and they sure don't like President Obama, they won't be doing much hiring until they get their man in, in 2012. By then, we'll be at 25%.

[Ian Welsh - Huffpost Blogger]

And considering that I'm more pessimistic than most, well, that's saying something. But I wouldn't be surprised if you're right. Not at all.

[waltn]

Why, then, are Cisco Systems, eBay, Intel, Sun, HP, and other high-tech companies telling the Labor Dept. that they cannot find U.S. citizens for these jobs? Why are they importing foreign workers? This is criminal!!!

CIsco Systems in Silicon Valley hiring H1B guest workers, not U.S. citizens as PROGRAM MANAGER, MARKETING MANAGER
and

eBay in Silicon Valley hiring guest workers, not U.S. citizens as INTERNET MARKETING SPECIALIST, USER INTERFACE DESIGNER, and FRAUD ANALYST.

Hitachi in Silicon Valley hiring guest workers, not U.S. citizens for FINANCIAL ANALYST jobs!!!!

From: Foreign Labor Certification Data Center is the disclosure databases for the temporary and permanent programs http://www.flcdatacenter.com//CaseH1B.aspx)

[drymartini1]

your racism is showing !! keep it in check.

[TryToBeFlexible]

I work for a software firm. They don't even bother to run want ads anymore, because they can get foreign programmers cheaper. And that is the only reason they hire the foreign workers. There is no shortage of American workers, and I am not impressed by the foreign workers. They are no more qualified, and not particularly dedicated, just cheaper. Another example of our (formerly Republican) government stabbing workers in the back.

[Michael McGloin]

Might also be good to rmember that the January's initial estimate was 655,000 and that has been adjusted 741,000. Don't be surprised if Febuary and March adjust too. The market and the media are either cheerleaders or doom sayers they have no middle road.

[tompoe]

Ian, try to play by the rules. The rule is, a recession can't be called until several months later, but the end to the recession must be called the same day it ends.