Why Pakistan's Decline Is Almost Inevitable

Benazir Bhutto's niece, Fatima Bhutto, lays out the reasons for decline as succinctly as anyone I've read:

The Taliban and their ilk, on the other hand, are able to seat themselves in towns and villages across Pakistan without much difficulty largely because they do not come empty-handed. In a country that has a literacy rate of around 30 percent, the Islamists set up madrassas and educate local children for free. In districts where government hospitals are not fit for animals, they set up medical camps--in fact, they've been doing medical relief work since the 2005 earthquake hit Northern Pakistan. Where there is no electricity, because the local government officials have placed their friends and relatives in charge of local electrical plants, the Islamists bring generators. In short, they fill a vacuum that the state, through political negligence and gross graft, has created.

To combat the Taliban's incursions further into poverty-stricken parts of the country, Pakistan's government only has to do its job less leisurely. That's the frightening truth.

Napoleon once said that the moral is to the physical as ten is to one. My simple rule of thumb for determining who will win civil and guerilla wars is "who is the government?" Now if I were to ask 100 people who the government of northwest Pakistan is, 99 would probably say "the government of Pakistan".

No. Government is what government does. The organization which supplies security, social services and law is the government, and it doesn't matter who is recognized by foreign powers. This is a mistake which the West makes over and over and over again, most recently in Somalia when the US greenlighted and aided in the destruction of Somalia incipient government, the Islamic Courts Union, plunging the country back into even worse anarchy than before, and pretending that the foreign chosen "interim government", which had no popular support, was actually a government.

Now Napoleon didn't say the moral is to the physical as infinity to one. If you're badly enough outgunned and outnumbered, well, being the government may not be enough, especially if you've only been the government for a brief time.

This is why a lot of analysts believe that Pakistan can never "fall", because the Pakistani army is very powerful.

I am far less sanguine. The army has shown very little willingness or ability to fight the Pakistani Taliban. It is unclear to me that the Pakistani army is willing to fight the Taliban, at least all out and if ordered to do so that it would obey that order, either at the top level, or at the operational level. Which is to say, just because the "President" orders it to do something, doesn't mean it will, and even if the military took back over through another coup (quite likely) that officers and even line soldiers are willing to be used against the Taliban, when the Taliban is actually a more effective government than they one they ostensibly serve.

The legitimacy of a government comes from doing what a government does. The Pakistani "government" is less of a government to most of the country than the Pakistani Taliban. The danger is that it will continue to expand into places where the Islamabad government is not actually acting as a government, till it controls most of the countryside and some of the smaller cities. From there it will likely reach an accommodation with the army.

Although they aren't communists, this is classical Maoist style countryside to city guerrilla strategy. By the time the major cities fall, they will be all that is left, completely isolated from the rest of the country.

The Pakistani army is powerful, but it is only an army, not a government.

Government is as government does. If the current Pakistani government wants to stay in charge, Fatima is right, it needs to do its job. If it doesn't, those who are willing to do the job will take over.

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Endnote:

1. Fatima does have an axe to grind with the other faction of her family, but that doesn't make her statements inaccurate.

2. Certainly Juan Cole is correct that the government is not likely to fall in the next 6 months to a year. In fact it might never fall, per se. Despite the fact that Hezbollah is more powerful than the Lebanese central government, that government still exists.

Comments

[research]

Maybe we shouldn't have driven the Taliban out of Afghanistan into Pakistan.

[jaysan]

Actually, Taliban was created by Pakistan in the first place, as its attempt to conquer Afghanistan and turn it into its satellite state.

[research]

true, but we still drove them back into Pakistan.

[Ahmer Naqvi]

Mr Welsh

I am assuming you are American. What a joy it must be, to be entitled to discuss the fate of insignificant nations like ours on the basis of your country's repeated involvement in our affairs. There is a slight problem though. You guys have a propensity to f*** things up quite easily.

Here is the prime example of why your thought is potentially so dangerous

"The Pakistani army is powerful, but it is only an army, not a government."

It may not be the government, but its certainly not "only an army" it is so so much more than that. it is the largest landowner, the largest business conglomerate, the most pervasive institution in all manners of governance through out the country. it scripts our foreign policy, it largely controls our destiny. and if you haven't known it as yet, it also created the taliban, and refuses to fight them honestly.

in order for the government to work, we must remove the government's existential fear of being constantly booted out of office. the army has been the primary player in dismissing each one of the civilian governments pakistan has EVER had.

in the simplistic discourse that is created for pakistan, the politicians are sleazy and corrupt, and the army is efficient and professional. such blinkered treatment is the refuge of fools. unfortunately, your words carry a lot more influence than mine. i hope you start taking responsibility for that influence soon.

[jaysan]

Clearly any populist ideological movement, as shown by the numerous communist insurgency wars in the past half-century, can make inroads by exploiting the vacuum of a faltering state. The Taliban are no different, which goes to show how the threat of militant Islam is not so unlike that posed by communist expansionism, despite the fierce protests by Islamic activists not to make Islam the "new red menace".

To give militant Islam the license to pursue its fundamentalist totalitarianism unopposed under the pretext that criticizing it would be "intolerant", is to then give this brand of extremism a free pass. As an Asian, I find this liberal myopia to be disturbingly familiar.

[Spiritof1982]

"The organization which supplies security, social services and law is the government, and it doesn't matter who is recognized by foreign powers."

This is an interesting take. Interesting for its sloppiness and ignorance of 1) the "what is law" debate and 2) basic ignorance of settled international law.

I'll agree that Islamists have filled a void in some areas of Pakistan that have been neglected by Islamabad. But that in no way gives them legitimacy as law givers, not by any stretch.

[farru83]

I just want to see the Pakistani gov't thrown out of the picture, these are extremely corrupt individuals who dont give a crap about the population...they drive around in luxery vehicles and eat at 5 star restaurants, wear expensive cloths, whereas the price of just about everything in the country is sky rocketing!!

I actually wouldnt mind seeing the Taliban overthrow the gov't and establish their own, according to what Fatima Bhutto has said, looks like they take care of the population. but then you have these contradicting stories of how they are barbarics...so I dont know what to beleive