U.S. FORCE LEVELS IN IRAQ WILL BE THE SAME ON ELECTION DAY 2008 AS THEY WERE ON ELECTION DAY 2006
U.S. commanders favor a freeze in troop cuts. The freeze would start in July and last for at least a month, all but ensuring the next administration will inherit as many troops in Iraq as there were before President Bush announced a "surge" of forces a year ago. There are about 155,000 U.S. troops in Iraq now, with about 5,000 leaving every month; the proposed freeze would go into effect in July, when troops levels reach around 130,000. Gen. David H. Petraeus will probably argue for what the military calls an operational "pause" at his next round of congressional testimony, expected in early April. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and top military officers have said they would like to see continued withdrawals throughout this year, but Bush has indicated he is likely to be guided by Petraeus's views. Some officers are arguing for 90 days and others saying it could be as short as 30. Because it can take as long as 75 days to withdraw a brigade, a freeze could result in troop levels remaining steady through most of the rest of Bush's term, deferring any continued drawdown to his successor. [Washington Post, 1/31/08]
PRESIDENT AGAIN ASKS THE COUNTRY FOR "PATIENCE"
Sandwiching his war speech between two campaign fundraisers, President Bush is making clear that his priority is to maintain the status quo, not to get troops home. The president is on a three-day tour with dual purposes: to raise money for Republican candidates and to plug some themes from his modestly aimed State of the Union address. His Iraq update on Thursday will be tucked into an agenda of political events across four states. Bush's Iraq theme is that his military build-up there a year ago -- unpopular as it was -- succeeded by reducing violence and giving Iraqi politicians some room to work. Despite the lack of political reconciliation, he won't commit to more U.S. troop withdrawals, and may even slow or stop the ones under way to preserve the gains in security. He will tell the nation that it cannot afford to turn its back on Iraq now, echoing a theme of his State of the Union address. He is asking the country, again, for patience. [AP, 1/31/08]
VIOLENCE CONTINUES AROUND MOSUL IN NORTHERN IRAQ
Turkmen political group in Kirkuk threatens to resort to arms in response to the kidnapping and killing of Turkmens by extremists. The unsettled situation in northern Iraq continued Wednesday as Iraqi troops massed in Mosul to fight Sunni Arab extremists. Also, in Kirkuk, the Iraqi Turkmen Front said in a statement issued Wednesday that it was calling for "establishing a Turkmen force to be part of the Iraqi Army that would undertake protection of the Turkmen areas." The front, the main Turkmen political group in Iraq, said, "We repeat our call to the Iraqi government to protect the Turkmens who are subjected to genocide in their areas; otherwise the Turkmens will adopt the Koranic verse that says, 'To those against whom war is made, permission is given' " to fight. [NY Times, 1/31/08]
PRIVATE CONTRACTORS GET NEW RULES
Bush administration officials outlined stricter rules for 20 companies, including the largest firms operation in Iraq. The three-hour meeting did not produce any binding resolutions. Peter Singer at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said government officials need to deliver a clear and firm message to the security companies. "These 'summits' are great for talking," Singer said, "but it can't just be, 'Hey, CEOs, this is what we would like you to do.' It's got to be, 'Here are the policies. Here are the laws that we've developed.'" Secretary Robert Gates wants a progress report by Feb. 28. [AP, 1/30/08]
VIOLENCE CONTINUES IN BASRA, DESPITE TURNING CONTROL OF THE CITY OVER TO THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT
Rocket attack wounds 3 British soldiers near the southern city of Basra. British forces turned over control of Basra and the surrounding province late last year despite concerns about increased rivalries between Shi'a militias that are engaged in a violent power struggle in the oil-rich area. But the British maintain troops at a base at the airport outside the city who retain the ability to help Iraqi security forces if needed. Sporadic attacks against them continue, although the numbers have fallen dramatically since the handover, according to the military. [AP, 1/31/08]