THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION AND THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT HAVE STILL NOT TAKEN STEPS TO FOSTER POLITICAL RECONCILIATION
As violence ebbs, the next hurdle for Iraq is political progress. Reconciliation or more disintegration and infighting is dependent on the careful calculation by Iraq's various protagonists - politicians, religious leaders, and insurgents - as to what they actually gain by either resisting the political equation or trying to work within the system, says a senior adviser to Iraq's President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd. "The surge [of US troops] was designed to create space to make political deals and to restabilize Iraq. It was also hoped that this process would enhance a sense of national unity. However, contrary to US objectives, a number of deals made at the local level led to increased fragmentation, not national unity," said Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group in remarks made in October. He said there is a "vigorous fight for the control of national resources." Echoing the concerns of Mr. Talabani's adviser, Mr. Hiltermann still sees "four intersecting wars" in Iraq: the Sunni-Shi'a sectarian conflict, the intra-Sunni conflict, the intra-Shi'a conflict, and a potential fight between Arabs and Kurds, whose rumblings are increasingly heard through disagreements over oil, territory, and the Turkish intervention in northern Iraq. [CS Monitor, 1/8/08]
IRAQI ARMY STILL FACING QUESTIONS OF COMPETENCE
Training efforts continue amid U.S. hopes that the security forces will be able to maintain gains cited in security. But the troops have had a mixed track record and relying on Iraqi security forces has proved risky. In February, when Army Gen. George W. Casey Jr. handed off command of U.S. troops in Iraq to Gen. David H. Petraeus, he predicted that Iraqi forces would be in charge of security nationwide by fall. But insurgents took advantage of the less experienced Iraqi forces to ramp up violence, which led President Bush to deploy the additional brigades. A Pentagon quarterly report to Congress released Dec. 18 says that the army's readiness is constrained by shortfalls in its ability to manage logistics, such as providing equipment. It also says a shortage of officers to take on leadership roles "remains problematic" and that it will "take years" to close the gap. "The thing is, our soldiers do not get much training because they're always out on the streets," said Brig. Gen. Ali Furaiji. [LA Times, 1/7/08]
FORMER INSURGENTS ARE MAKING GAINS IN INFLUENCE
"Under Saddam Hussein, there was no army in the streets. He used intelligence men, his Baathists, he was controlling everything, like what we are doing now." The U.S. is empowering a new group of Sunni leaders, including onetime members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party, intelligence services and army, who are challenging established Sunni politicians. The phenomenon marks a sharp turnaround in U.S. policy. The new leaders are against Iraq's U.S.-backed, Shi'a led government, which remains wary of the Sunnis' new influence and worries that the Sunni fighters could turn against it when U.S. troops pull out of Iraq. "The government has no choice but to accept us," Suleiman said. "They have seen what we have done, how strong we are on the land. The political process cannot run without us." Sunni commander, Riyadh Hadi of the Lions of Adhamiyah, declares that his men use tactics employed under Saddam Hussein to maintain security. "Under Saddam Hussein, there was no army in the streets. He used intelligence men, his Baathists, he was controlling everything, like what we are doing now," Hadi said. [Washington Post, 1/8/08]
HUMANITARIAN CRISIS CONTINUES
UN Refugee agency seeks $261 million for Iraq. The number of Iraqis leaving the country fell in 2007 chiefly due to Jordan and Syria imposing visa restrictions, rather than any improvement in security following the US military's "surge" strategy, explained UNHCR spokeswoman Astrid van Genderen-Stort. Moreover, there has been no noticeable decrease in the number of internally displaced people, which remains around the 2.2 million mark, she added. The agency's appeal will cover 2.2 million internally displaced people as well as 2 million refugees in neighboring countries like Syria and Jordan. In 2008, the UNHCR will focus on getting assistance to 400,000 of the most vulnerable IDPs, but it stressed that rampant insecurity means delivering this help is very difficult. [AFP, 1/8/08]
CHRISTIAN SITES BOMBED IN MOSUL
Iraq's minority Christian population has been targeted in a series of apparently coordinated attacks in Mosul. Bombs exploded outside three churches and a monastery in the northern Iraqi city on Epiphany Sunday, an important date in the Eastern Christian calendar, wounding four people. Christians form around 3% of the Iraqi population although many have left, fleeing religious persecution. Mosul is traditionally a religiously mixed city. An Iraqi translator who lives in Mosul told the BBC that people were upset at the attack on the city's tolerant traditions. "People are really angry and sad about what happened, but no one dares show that in public because they are afraid of the armed groups." [BBC, 1/7/08]