On the first day of this Paris climate change conference (COP21), keep in mind that these are the heads of state who, in Copenhagen in 2009, declared that they should bring about a global agreement on climate change that would limit global warming to below 2C, and even 1.5C. Here they are, meeting their responsibilities!
These two degrees are the main concern of the COP21. It is a serious challenge because scientists, and namely the IPCC, have shown that beyond this threshold, our planet will enter a downward spiral of imbalance, on several levels. Many things are therefore to be negotiated --especially this 2C objective-- to ensure avoiding this point of no-return for the planet and humanity. Countries should commit to this to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
More than 170 national contributions and commitments for 2025 or 2030 have been submitted by countries. This is a first that must be underscored; it speaks to an unprecedented mobilization on the part of most countries. These efforts, which would still lead the world towards global warming of around 3C by the end of the century, nonetheless convey the progress in ambition since the 2009 Copenhagen Summit.
"The next five years will be very important, and the longer we wait to put measures into effect, the harder it will become to minimize climate change."
The second key issue which will require vigilance is that of development aid. In Copenhagen, the heads of state of rich countries said that they would commit to getting an $100 billion in aid per year by 2020. (This should be possible, since we know that every year, the fossil fuel sector receives approximately $500 billion in subsidies.) Now, it remains to be seen how this amount will be distributed. What part of this budget will go towards the prevention, or the fight against the devastating impacts of climate change? These questions will be at the heart of negotiations in Paris.
A multitude of elements still need to be discussed: Will the agreement be binding or only verifiable? Will the date of a future meeting be scheduled? And, a crucial point: What will we do from now until 2020, the year when the Paris agreement will go into effect? The next five years will be very important, and the longer we wait to put measures into effect, the harder it will become to minimize climate change. Since the industrial revolution, we have consumed two-thirds of our carbon budget! Let us not wait until we use up the remaining third to fight global warming.
"Whatever happens, nothing will be won or lost at the end of COP21. It will be on us to effectively and positively interpret the agreement."
I used to say that optimism and pessimism are two sides of the same coin: that of resignation. So let's not be one or the other, and let's be proactive in making this COP21 a success. There will be a post-COP21 period; it will be necessary to work hard no matter what happens, to adapt to change, and to limit global warming. In this way, the Paris conference must be a historical marker in our fight against climate change. Whatever happens, it must be an ambitious political symbol, even if this agreement is not perfect.
For several months, WWF representatives around the world have worked with their governments on this agreement. The next 10 days will be an opportunity to collectively focus on the discussions that we must have and on the messages that need to be conveyed.
I expect an ambitious agreement to come out of COP21, one that would puts us on a trajectory to limit the increase of the average global temperature to 2C or 1.5C by the end of the century. It will be satisfactory if we achieve that.
Matters are looking better than they did in Copenhagen; over the past five years, civil society, businesses, and communities have come a long way, and have become aware of pressing issues. We set out on more solid ground, with good national roadmaps.
Whatever happens, nothing will be won or lost at the end of COP21. It will be on us to effectively and positively interpret the agreement. In a way, the first half of the journey is behind us. The question now is how countries, after COP21, plan to complete the second half of the journey.
This post first appeared on HuffPost France. It has been translated into English and edited for clarity.
This post is part of a series produced by The Huffington Post, in conjunction with the U.N.’s 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris (Nov. 30-Dec. 11), aka the climate-change conference. The series will put a spotlight on climate-change issues and the conference itself. To view the entire series, visit here.