From 1963 to 2007, the domestic U.S. advertising business grew at an annual rate of 5%, staying slightly ahead of inflation. Between 2008 and 2011, Jack Myers Media Business Report projects the total advertising business will decline from $245 billion to $194 billion, a dramatic 20% decline. (See Jack Myers detailed Advertising and Marketing Forecasts 2007-2012.) From 2012 to 2020, the advertising business will achieve average annual growth only in the low to mid single digits. The media industry, which grew at a rate greater than 5.0% annually for four decades due to subscriber payments, affiliate fees and advertising revenues, is declining at an even more precipitous rate and there is little visibility for the future. It's ironic that these revenue declines are happening during a golden age of media brands when more capital than ever before is flowing into high quality professional content development. In this week's subscriber-only report, I outline the growth opportunities for advertising and subscription dependent media companies, challenge the McKinsey-led actions of Condé Nast and review the implications of network TV's strong 4th quarter scatter.
Jack Myers consults with media, agencies and marketers on transformative business models and revenue growth strategies. He can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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