The internationalclimate negotiations have just wrapped up in Lima, Peru. This meeting was to setkey directions for the new international climate agreement in next Decemberin Paris. In Paris countries are to agree on a new international climateagreement that will require much deeper action by all countries.
As I said inmy final statement:
"Here's the good news from the Lima talks: Countries around
the world now fully get that early next year they must commit to ambitious
reductions in climate pollution and bold measures to slow global warming. Most
key countries are laying the groundwork at home for more aggressive commitments
to cut their carbon pollution. There is no question about this point anymore.
It's time to set aside half-measures, empty promises and squabbling. The
progress from Lima must be translated into real action by the time the world
convenes in Paris. Only together can we avoid the worst impacts of climate
change, and for the sake of our children and future generations we must."
Hereis what was agreed in Lima, the underlying political current, and how thesedynamics set us in motion for a strong agreement in Paris if countries chooseto rise to the opportunity.
Early next year countries know they have to come forwardwith bold and ambitious commitments to further reduce their emissions. One year ago we were fighting over whether or notcountries would propose targets early enough to make Paris a success. In theagreement and the corridors it is clear that major emitters are laying thegroundwork for a proposed target. Europe,U.S.,and China- which account for over 50 percent of the world's emissions - have set thetone and taken away any uncertainty when they announced new emissions reductiontargets. In Lima more signs emerged from big players. We heard about thepreparations in countries like Chile,Brazil, South Korea, Mexico,and other countries. The agreed decision sets the contours of these proposedtargets as countries: reaffirmed the aim to propose their emissions reductiontargets early next year, agreed that their targets must be on a trajectory tohelping us ensure that we address climate change, and that they are moreaggressive than their previous commitments (a "progression beyond the currentundertaking").
I suspect that lots of leaders will becalling their contemporaries to say: "come on President what you are proposingisn't serious enough". We'll need a political push from leaders to ensure thatcountries propose strong post-2020 climate targets.
Countries know that they can't "fudge the numbers" aseveryone will be looking at the guts of their target. There was an important push to ensure that countriesprovide a basic set of information when they propose their post-2020 targets. Thishas important climate implications as there is a lot of carbon pollution atstake if a country proposes an unclear commitment. This was one of the mainissues here in Lima, so all leaders are on record that they can't play gameswith their targets. The Lima decision sets out a minimum set of informationthat must be included when a country proposes their target next year including:
- quantifiable informationon the reference point or base year (e.g., is it compared to 2005, if it is areduction from business as usual what is the basis of that number, etc);
- time frames and/orperiods for the commitment (e.g., 2025, 2030);
- which sectors andgreenhouse gas are included (i.e., "scope and coverage");
- the "assumptionsand methodological approaches" (i.e., if you have a greenhouse gas intensitytarget what is the assumed gross domestic product, or what assumed business asusual did you use);
- emissionsincluding land-use emissions and sinks (i.e., greenhouse gas emissions and"removals"); and
- indication of howthe target from the country is in line with the level of cuts necessary toaddress climate change and how it is "fair and ambitious" (i.e., does it passthe "laugh and science" test).
We need action today and tomorrow, not just two decadesfrom now.
The small-island states, Africancountries, and least developed countries are calling for urgent action toreduce emissions. They are on the front lines of climate change as they arewitnessing the impacts of climate change and every year of delay will take amassive toll on their citizens. This is why they were pushing so hard to ensurethat all of the attention wasn't focused on what countries do after 2020. Weare leaving Lima with a mixed bag on this issue:
- The EuropeanUnion, U.S., and New Zealand underwent the first "multilateral assessment toask the basic question: "are you on track for your 2020 climate target". Theprocess put these countries in the spotlight and the key conclusion is that theEU is on track for its target and the U.S. is on a path but has to finalizesome elements of the U.S. Climate Action plan (see here for one analysis of theUS and EU).
- Unclear on theneed for strong 2025 climate targets, but agrowing group of countries including Brazil, key Latin American countries,small-island states, U.S., and South Africa are pushing for 2025 climatetargets in the Paris agreement. In Copenhagen countries agreed to targets10 years in advance (i.e., in 2009 for 2020 climate targets), but now somecountries are pushing for targets 15 years later (e.g., 2030 targets agreed in2015). Hopefully countries will get the message and prepare to finalize strongtargets for 2025 in Paris.
- Limalaunched to a new "NAZCA portal" that showcases the groundswell of climateaction. Global leaders from national and subnational governments, theprivate sector, and civil society groups discussed specific steps each can taketo scale-up action on climate change. We will need to build upon these growingnumbers of actions to ensure that we bend the near-term emissions trend in linewith what science demands and keycountries are calling for.
Providing financial support to developing countries to helpfurther reduce emissions and address adaptation will be a critical component ofthe international effort.
Coming out of Lima, the new Green Climate Fund(GCF) has received pledges of more than $10 billion in funding. These pledgeswill help ensure that the GCF isn't an "empty shell" with a great structure butno resources to begin immediately to help reduce emissions and build moreresilience to climate impacts. What further steps countries take to mobilizeeven great resources through public and private resources will be an importantpoint of contention as we go into Paris. We leave Lima with a very important downpayment in the GCF which has been a major ask of key developing countries foryears.
We begin next year focused on negotiating the new legalagreement. In Lima, countries began to articulatethe outlines of agreement to be reached next December as reflect in the "elementstext". This document is too long and has too many options, but countriescan now focus clearly on turning the ideas into a final legal agreement nextDecember. We have our work cut out for us, but the ball is slowly rolling inthe right direction.
------------------------
The agreement in Lima is a mixed bag,but the seeds for Paris agreement have been planted. It is a diverse group ofplants and it will need to be watered and cultivated, but with the right gardenersit can grow stronger. World leaders know that they must propose bold andambitious emissions reduction targets early next year, that they can't fudgethe numbers, and that they must be prepared to defend the aggressiveness oftheir effort.
Humanity deserves nothing less than the fullleadership of the world's governments, CEOs, cities, and citizens. Next yearwill be the moment to show which side of history they want to be on.