Ahmadinejad: Ballots and Missiles

The competition in the Iranian presidential election is heating up, or so it seemed until recently on Iranian government-sponsored television. Unlike the previous election, the challengers to incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are well-known heavyweights who include former Prime Minister Mir-Mossein Moussavi, former Majlis (Parliament) speaker Mehdi Karroubi, and Secretary of the Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaie; the candidates had been getting regular coverage on their opposing policies, with each making his case for the presidency.

Starting today, May 22, and until June 10, six presidential debates will be broadcast on Iran's state television, the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB). The Iranian state broadcast authority will equally distribute pre-election television and radio airtime among the four leading presidential hopefuls. Nevertheless, two of the challengers, Mousavi and Karroubi have accused state television of "repeated and open breaches of neutrality" and biased coverage favoring Ahmadinejad. I couldn't agree more.

I've been watching four Iranian satellite networks, IRIB 2 (broadcasting in Farsi and English), IRINN (broadcasting in Farsi and Arabic), Press TV (broadcasting in English), and Al Alam (broadcasting in Arabic) where the Iranian President's recent announcement of the successful test-launch of an advanced surface-to-surface solid-fuel missile, the Sajjil-2, that could reach Israel and other potential targets across the Middle East has eclipsed news coverage of his three main rivals. Western and Middle Eastern media have taken the bait as well by rebroadcasting the missile launch, exaggerating the threat, and playing up its success.

Headlines all over the world read: Iran Tests New Missile that Could Reach Israel!

Millions of Iranian voters have already watched this scene before on television; a blue rocket rising against a sunny desert backdrop, surrounded by the red, white and green flags of the Islamic Republic. Ahmadinejad is beaming with victory. Déjà vu all over again!

What's new? Iran has long had missiles that could reach Israel and the Persian Gulf states where the U.S. maintains several bases. And yes, Ahmadinejad has boasted that the new Sajjil-2 incorporates "advanced technology" that makes it more accurate than Iran's arsenal of Shahab-series missiles, but this is hardly a major advancement that will affect the balance of power in the region. The timing of the launch has more to do with Ahmadinejad's declining popularity due to his poor performance with the economy and Iran's isolation.

To win the presidency in Iran, a leading candidate must receive 50% of the vote; otherwise, a runoff election will be held between the top two vote-getters. Polls have been all over the place, with a news agency close to Ahmadinejad called Fars reporting in a recent poll that 54.5% of respondents favor the incumbent, while other polls show him hovering at around 34%.

Meanwhile, challengers to Ahmadinejad have been criticizing his foreign policy. Former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi accused the incumbent of cultivating relations with ideologically kindred countries in Latin America instead of forging ties with the nearby nations of the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East.

"We have neglected civilizations in which Iran has played a role and moved toward Latin America," he said on Iran's Press TV. "We have forgotten cities we lost in wars between Iran and Russia and cling to countries such as Venezuela and Uruguay."

A few days ago, Iran's spiritual leader warned voters against supporting pro-Western candidates in June's presidential elections. As usual, his speech was broadcast on all government controlled television stations.

"Those who submit to the enemies and bring shame on the nation should not come to power by the people's vote," Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said during a speech in the western town of Bijar.

Many Iranian political observers have interpreted these comments to be an endorsement of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's approach to foreign policy over those of his challengers. Will the Iranian populace re-elect Ahmadinejad as President, and if so, will it be because he succeeded in razzling and dazzling them with his missiles, nuclear ambition, and defiance of the West? Or will it be because the Supreme Leader designated him the "chosen one"?

In any event, I've recently put my own money on Ahmadinejad (five bucks worth).

Jamal Dajani produces the Mosaic Intelligence Report on Link TV.

Comments

[cohen238765]

N. Korea testing of a nuclear bomb without consequences will encourage Ahmedinejad to do the same in the near future.

[leonardox1]

You're assuming that Iran is developing or has nuclear bombs.

[alexa07]

Israel having how many nuke WMDs without consequences encourages every other nation in the region to do what?

[Quinterius]

There is an excellent Op-Ed article in New York Times today (May 23, 2009) about Iran that, for the first time in the regular media, gives a proper analysis of the problems with the disastrous US policy towards Iran:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/24/opinion/24leverett.html?_r=1

[MosheDayanHero]

I agree with the majority of this article by Mr. Dajani except for one misleading statement.
"A few days ago, Iran's spiritual leader warned voters against supporting pro-Western candidates in June's presidential elections."
A person unfamiliar with Iran power structure can be mislead into believing that Khamenei is somehow detached from the reins of power in Iran, just a " a spiritual leader." But the truth is that Khamenei indeed is the major power in Iran, both secular and religious. Certainly he possesses a lot more control over the state than the President in U.S. or the Prime Minister in U.K.

[leonardox1]

Dajani does not downplay the influence of Khamenei. He asks towards the end:

"Or will it be because the Supreme Leader designated him the "chosen one"?"

[WarSkeptic]

So your proof of media bias in favor of Ahmadinejad is that they covered the recent missile test?
Fox news covered it as well, so they are in favor of Ahmadinejad?

[leonardox1]

Ahmadinejad's rivals have been complaining about media bias from day one. Sure the missile test is yet another distraction to focus the cameras on him.

[Spiritof1982]

I'd think that Fox actually would be pro-Ahmadinejad from a business standpoint. The more he talks, the more right-wing fear mongering and militarism they can pitch to all the Cheney wannabes.

[karmala]

I will vote for President Ahmadinejad !

[i am nav]

The "democratic" process in Iran is a sham. Regardless of who receives the most votes, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wins. At least that's what I'm willing to bet all my rials on.

[jad114]

At the end of the day, it is all about what the Ayatollah and the mullah's decide on. The Iranian people will have little to do with who gets elected.

[Mollabaji]

your uninformed prediction is worth all the rials you own.

[Khirad]

Reading Israeli newspapers you'd think they already had a nuclear arsenal. It's harder to talk to them rationally than even Americans about Iran.

Jamal, I really enjoyed your piece, but I'll bet 49,000 rial that Ahmedinejad loses. At least I hope so. Iranian elections can be unpredictable, no? Apathetic views like that young woman don't help though. Who cares if they don't deliver promises? Sure reforms will be blocked, like Khatami's were, but have a little respect. I would've voted for a block of cheese just to get rid of Bush.

[zaz33]

Follow up - What I haven't stated before.

1. I am fanatically opposed to almost everything nuclear. (death, sickness, cost overruns, and subsidies from beginning to end)

2. I'm retired and have followed Iran's nuclear activities extensively for years and have not come accross any evidence of a nuclear weapons program.

3. If I thought for one minute that Iran was pursueing nuclear weapons I would be shoulder to shoulder with those of you that fear Iran's nuclear program.

[justice2008]

I hate to be cynical but how would you know that Iran does not already have a nuclear bomb? Also what about Israel's nuclear program and its nuclear arsenal?

[zaz33]

There is no evidence that Iran has ever pursued nuclear weapons. NONE

If anyone has evidence that Iran has pursued nuclear weapons please share it with us.

[MosheDayanHero]

Statement by International Atomic Energy Agency Secretary General, Mohamed El Baradei,
March 2, 2009:

"The Agency regrettably was unable to make any progress on the remaining issues which give rise to concerns about possible military dimensions of Iran´s nuclear programme because of lack of cooperation by Iran.
For the Agency to be able to make progress, Iran needs to provide substantive information and access to relevant documentation, locations and individuals in connection with all of the outstanding issues."

...Nor has Iran implemented the Additional Protocol, which, as with other countries with comprehensive safeguards agreements, is a prerequisite for the Agency to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities.
Iran has not permitted the Agency to perform the required design information verification at the IR-40 reactor currently under construction, and it has not implemented the modified text of its Subsidiary Arrangements General Part on the early provision of design information.

Unless Iran implements the transparency measures and the Additional Protocol, as required by the Security Council, the Agency will not be in a position to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran.

http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Statements/2009/ebsp2009n002.html

[Quinterius]

This is utter nonsense. You have the audacity to complain about Iran's refusal to response to forged documents generated by Mosad on a mysterious PC, while Israel has not even signed on to NPT and has hundreds of nuclear weapons. Why don't you quote the rest of the IAEA report that says there is NO EVIDENCE of any divergence of nuclear work to weapons development in Iran. Iran does not have to prove a negative.

[newsjunkie5]

I think George Bush should run for President in Iran!

[MosheDayanHero]

He'll fit right in. Just needs a beard and conversion to Islam.

[lightningbolt]

"cultivating relations with ideologically kindred countries in Latin America"

There is absolutely nothing similar between the ideologies if the regressive Iranian theocracy and the progressive democratic governments of Latin America. In fact, their ideologies are completely the opposite of each other. The only things that brought Iran closer to some countries in Latin America are oil and their mutual hatred for the US.

[newsjunkie5]

Please name these "progressive democratic governments of Latin America," which you mention.

[lightningbolt]

Venezuela has strong ties to Iran, and they are a progressive democracy. I know you like to think Chavez is a bloodthirsty dictator, but the facts say he is a progressive democrat. He got into power by winning elections, unlike Iran's supreme leader who took power by force.

Bolivia also has ties with Iran, but not too close. Bolivia is also a progressive democratic country.

Other progressive democratic countries in Latin America include Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, Chile, and others.

[zaz33]

lightningbolt -

Actually, Islamic economics and socialism are both a thorn in the side of capitalism.

[cohen238765]

I disagree with Mr. Dajani. I think Iranians are tired of Ahmadinejad's lunacy and are going to vote him out.

[jad114]

Ahmadinejad enjoys wide support and he plays his cards well on touching on Iranian nationalism.

[joz22]

Iran poses no threat to Israel. It is the other way around. Iran has also not attacked its neighbors, it was attacked by Iraq, and threatened by the US and Israel.

[newsjunkie5]

I agree, but the US and Israel will always position Iran as a threat and enemy to Israel and the West to move along their agenda and interests in the region.

[cohen238765]

What world are you living in?

In the world I live in Iran is a threat - not only to Israel and the US, but the entire world. Ahmadinejad wants to build a nuclear weapon to change the balance of power in the region and the world.

[leonardox1]

No threat to Israel? Can you tell me who has been arming Hezbollah and Hamas?

[newsjunkie5]

That is what the US and Israel wants us to believe.

Fear factor!

[jad114]

And Israel with its 200+ nukes is no threat to Iran?

[Quinterius]

You may not want to hear this, but Hezbollah and Hamas are NOT terrorist organizations. On the other hand, Israel is a terrorist country. One man's terrorist is another's freedom fighter anyway. Hezbollah was formed because of Israel's occupation of Lebanon. It never existed before. The Lebanese government and army were impotent. Hezbollah was able to kick Israel out and defended it bravely when Israel attacked again. And, please let's not get into the discussion of kidnapping of Israeli soldiers. Israel kidnaps and kills Palestinians every day.

As far as Hamas is concerned, they were created originally with the help of Israel to weaken Fatah. The US, Israel and EU can call them terrorists if they want. The fact is that they are the only legitimate authority in Palestine. The rockets that some of their members shoot occasionally at Israel are useless playthings that haven't killed anybody for the last couple of years (actually, they may have killed a few). They also have not had a suicide bomber for years. They will win the next election and we will have to deal with them. They do not have to recognize Israel's "right to exist," whatever that ridiculous concept means, just as Israel does not recognize Hamas’s is right to exist. The stupidity of US policy in the Middle East will drag things on for another 60 years. Then, we will have another version of apartheid South Africa.

[Mollabaji]

leonardox,
Hizbollah and Hamas are the legitimate representatives of their people, elected by the people. If Iran arms them, good for them because they are fighting an enemy (Israel) that has invaded them and is occupying their lands. U.S. arms israel and its own groups in the region. So why condemn Iran for the same thing U.S. is doing for the opposit side?

[lightningbolt]

Iran finances and trains Hamas and Hezbollah. They are definitely a threat to Israel. Those two organizations have attacked Israel repeatedly. Israel has never attacked Iran.

[newsjunkie5]

Israel may not have attacked Iran...YET...but they do have nukes and could at any moment.

[justice2008]

Ahmadinejad has been running the country to the ground but at the end of the day most Iranians will listen to the Suprem Leader Khamenei and vote accordingly.

[newsjunkie5]

I have to disagree. I don't think the country will vote for Ahmadinejad solely on the fact that it seems from Khamenei's comments that he supports the current President of Iran. I think they will support Ahmadinejad more for his defiance of the West and his outspoken hatred of Israel and its policies. These are the reasons why people will vote for Ahmadinejad over the other candidates.

[justice2008]

Ahmadinejad is not loved in Iran. He needs the Supreme Leader's blessings more than anything else.