Israel's October Surprise?

It's been several months since a war of words erupted between Iran and Israel, raising speculations that a possible Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, which the West and Israel suspect of enriching uranium for the purpose of making nuclear bombs, might be near. However, Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad recently played down this possibility, saying that "Israel is in a weak position to launch attacks against any other country."

Is Israel weak?

Not according to many Israeli analysts who believe that an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites looks "unavoidable." This statement was also shared by Iranian-born former defense minister Shaul Mofaz, who said in an interview to Israel's largest newspaper Yedioth Ahranot, "If Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack it. The sanctions are ineffective." He also said that Israel has the means and capabilities to succeed in such a mission.

Just a short while ago, Israel's request for a fresh supply of GBU-28 bunker-busters, each weighing two tons and capable of punching through reinforced concrete, was turned down by the Bush administration. Instead, the U.S. has agreed to sell 1,000 versions of a much-smaller, satellite-guided bomb, capable of hitting underground targets. In addition, according to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, the U.S. has refused to grant Israel safe passage through Iraqi air space in order to target Iran's nuclear facilities. But according to Ronen Bergman, an Israeli investigative journalist and author of The Secret War With Iran, the Israeli "Mossad estimates of what they term as the first (Iranian) nuclear device to be ready at the end of 2009 and the beginning of 2010."

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking on the window of opportunity for an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities while George Bush is still in office. Many military experts believe that in order for such an operation to succeed, the United States must be on board and ready to confront any Iranian retaliation. One set of scenarios surfacing in the Israeli media is the prediction that Israel will strike Iran shortly after the U.S. presidential election in November should Barack Obama be declared the winner. I, on the other hand see it differently: if Israel decides to strike Iran, what stops it from pulling off an "October Surprise?"

Here is the scenario. Israel attacks Iran sometime in October with or without the blessings of the Bush Administration. Iran responds, and the U.S. feels compelled to assist Israel to prevent a worse scenario of what happened to Israeli towns during the War on Lebanon in 2006, when Hezbollah retaliated with barrages of rockets.

Americans will quickly forget about the economy, and look for a "war president."

John McCain wins in November.

Jamal Dajani produces the Mosaic Intelligence Report on Link TV

Comments

[Mildmannered]

http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2008/09/27/2008-09-27_bet_on_israel_bombing_iran.html

bet on israel bombing iran

[biggduude]

The Guardian is reporting that Bush refused Isreal's request for support in an attack on Iran:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/25/iran.israelandthepalestinians1

[EndAllWars]

If an October surprise is created, Americans will NOT look kindly on a foreign country influencing their elections.

[bswilton5]

This is a scary thought, but let's take it one step further. One of the hundreds of signing statements the President Bush created states that if the United States is in another war, he will put America under martial law. That means no election, folks! Maybe that's why McCain picked Palin. It won't matter anyway.

What we must do is impeach Bush and Cheney before this happens!

[Garvagh]

There is no evidence that Iran is developing nuclear weapons or that Iran even has a desire to do so.
The 14 surprise IAEA inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities revealed no diversion from the civilian power program. Russia is working closely with Iran in building the power plants (the first is supposed to open in March 2009), and Russia is strongly opposed to Iran's developing nuclear weapons. Turkey is also opposed to any Iranian nuclear weapons development, and Turkey believes that working with Iran in a cooperative fashion in the best way forward.

Why did CBS News edit out, from the Mike Wallace interview of the president of Iran, of Ahmadinejad's call for a democratic vote in Israel/Palestine as a means of deciding the future of the country or countries. The interview was shown on "60 Minutes" which also has broadcast a program where Bob Simon seems to make a false case that Iran poses a threat to Israel.

[lucite]

Joe Biden ..I trust him with this....He is the only one left who knows the truth and is well versed in Middle Eastern politics...

[newsjunkie5]

I think Obama made the biggest mistake picking Biden as his running mate. If he had picked Hillary then we wouldn't be dealing with Palin at all nor the prospect of Palin realistically becoming our next President!

[leonardox1]

Are you kidding? He knows how to be loyal to Israel but will he be able to create a balance in the Middle East.

[newsjunkie5]

WHAT!

This is a crazy and scary scenario. If we weren't talking about Israel, the US, and Ahmadinejad I would say this author is nuts...but since we are...I guess this is just as plausible as anything else that has already happened in the last 8 years...and very much plausible if John McCain is ridiculously elected!

[justice2008]

Scary...YES but not crazy. The only reason Iran has not been attacked is because of all the f**kups the Bush administration committed in Iraq!

[Garvagh]

Many of the neocons who helped to bring about the catastrophe in Iraq, wanted the US to overthrow the governments of Syria and Iran! The Iraq War has cost a trillion dollars. A needless war with Iran would cost far more!

[biggurl]

omg.....this is a sickening theory. somebody say it ain't so....america needs to focus on herself right now. would israel really be so selfish and manipulative? they are going to run us right into the poorhouse and we will be blaming it on 'terrorists'.

we need allies that want to look out for the well being of our nation, not just our guns and money....

[KISHAGREEN]

This is just great. We cannot afford to help anybody, even important allies like Israel.

October surprise my foot! Such a thing would greatly affect our presidential race and the timing of it is outrageously suspect.

[newsjunkie5]

Exactly the point!

[leonardox1]

did anyone speculate on what would be Iran's reaction? or is it "Mission Accomplished" a la Bush?

[StMTraveler]

Haaretz.com
Fri., September 19, 2008 Elul 19, 5768 | | Israel Time: 17:37 (EST+7)
Vice President Esfandiar Rahim Mashai said Iranians were friends of all people in the world - even Israelis.

"On Thursday, Ahmadinejad stood by Mashai again, saying Iran is not against Israelis, though he stopped short of calling them friends. We don't have a problem with people. But in no way do we recognize the Zionist regime, he said. "

[leonardox1]

Right....this is what so crazy about Ahmadinajad and company. They'll say something then they'll turn around and say something else. Ahmadinajad + Bush/McCain + Israel a recipe for disaster.

[tlgeiger62]

OMG - this scenario is just bone chilling.

[SamThornton]

One factor complicating a decision to attack Iran's nuclear facilities is that one of the primary targets would be the nuclear power plant being built at Bushehr, Iran by Russia's state-run Atomstroiexport. Effectively, whoever attacks would also be attacking one of Russia's vital security interests, not to mention the Russian technicians on the site. To imagine that Russia would sit still for an attack of this sort is clearly delusional thinking.

[jad114]

The problem is that we have delusional leaderships both in the White House and the Israeli Knesset. They know how to start a war but they never make calculations to what's going to happen afterwards.

[leonardox1]

This will be disastrous! The U.S. cannot afford being dragged into another war in the Middle East. Having said that, John McCain lives for this type of things and he will for sure get elected.

[newsjunkie5]

I completely agree with you. I think this country is crazy enough to elect him and vote for the downfall of the US for another 8 years!

[justice2008]

This scenario is not far fetched. Israel has been egging the Bush administration for months to bomb Iran. They would have if they did not get caught in a big lie over Iraq. They're just waiting for the proper excuse.