Tonight, the voters speak for the first time.
Sitting here in Des Moines, an observer obviously, there is a quietness today that happens when all of the polling stops, all of the ads seemingly go by the wayside, the punches and counter-punches end, and Iowans tonight will bundle up and go to caucus.
I thought about what I hope for tonight, and what I think it matters.
The numbers in the title were where I settled.
Today, in Iraq, around 170,000 men and women will lace up their boots and go to work, go on patrol, and hope to survive the day and their tour.
Last time the Democrats caucused in Iowa, 140,000 Iowans showed up, so this time, with predictions being for a higher turnout, we could actually see a remarkable parallel - 170,000 cold and shivering Iowans here, 170,000 brave American men and women there.
Iraq is my issue.
It was my issue in 2004, and it will be my issue until every single soldier comes home. It is my issue for so many reasons, many personal. It's my friendship with men like Jon Soltz, Jon Powers and Paul Reickhoff men who served there and came home.
It's my friendship with women like Maureen Shay Palmer, whose son served there and didn't make it home.
And it's my friendship with men like Bobby Muller, John Kerry, Paul Nace, David Thorne, Tommy Vallely, and especially Max Cleland, men who served in Vietnam and made it home though of course Bobby and Max paying a greater price for their service than the others.
Every day, every week, every month we are in Iraq is a mistake. A tragedy of increasing proportions, financially and morally. When I see Republicans talk about Iraq and then about their religious bona fides, I wonder what Jesus says about an immoral war, a war of profit and business, a war of choice.
I have been frustrated by what the Democrats in DC have not done about the war this year. I suppose like many I have come to the conclusion that the issue is not so much figuring out right from wrong as it is figuring out where to find the courage to do what's right.
It's right to leave Iraq.
Now.
Paul Nace, mentioned above, taught me the real lesson of Vietnam, far better than the ones I learned studying the books of historians like Stanley Karnow.
The real lesson of Vietnam is that for all of our power and might and military superiority, when it comes to intersecting ourselves in the course of events in another country, we can not force an outcome. It's like fighting the ocean. You can build walls, and try to ship in sand and rebuild beaches, but the ocean is always going to win.
In Vietnam, the North and the South were going to have to settle their differences, they were going to have to essentially fight it out and determine their collective future. If the French had left and we had not gone in, they would have settled it in the 1960s. If LBJ, who knew the war was lost in the mid 1960s, had withdrawn, they would have settled it in the 1970s. As it was, they settled it in the 1980s.
In Iraq, the Iraqis have to settle their issues. Will it be bloody? Yes. Will it be painful to watch? Possibly. Is it inevitable that at some point Sunni and Shia will have to band together or break apart in different countries? Yes.
Now, a year from now, or 10 years from now, that is inevitable.
Sooner is better.
My frustration with the candidates has been the willingness of Obama, Edwards, and Clinton to treat Iraq just like every other issue. I won't rehash their positions or statements, but there are sites that do.
It is more than fair to say that their positions have changed. And that concerns me, almost as much as it does that two of the three voted for the war in the first place, and that they didn't read the intelligence before they voted for the war.
I have also been frustrated by Democrats and by bloggers who say they want to end the war, and then strongly, emotionally and sometimes unreasonably support a candidate who doesn't really have a plan to end the war.
So what would I do tonight?
I would stand up for Bill Richardson.
He was, clearly, the first and clearest out of the gate with a plan to get out of Iraq. Spare me the comments and the trolls, he was. End of story.
He has the most experience internationally. I found the debate between Obama and Clinton unintentionally humorous. Both are great candidates, but neither has any foreign policy experience.
I also think Bill Richardson is great on global warming, the best. (And that's my other issue.)
Not one vote has been cast.
Not one poll matters worth a damm.
It's right to stand up and get us out of Iraq.
Good luck tonight Governor.