Last week, I wrote about Al Gore and the need for him to start an Exploratory Committee by September 1 and explore the possibility of running for president in 2008. In this post, as the other Democratic contenders gather for a debate tonight, I decided to review how he could win if he actually got in, in this case, by looking through the delegate count.
One of the most interesting things to me about this election cycle is that, unlike 2004, there is the very good real possibility that counting delegates might actually matter.
To sum up 2004 and how the delegates went, it was something like this.
Kerry wins Iowa. Gephardt done. Dean in triage.
Kerry wins New Hampshire. Edwards holds on. Dean folds.
Kerry wins Super Tuesday six weeks later and then all opposition is gone and as the primaries go on and on uncontested, he finally officially gets the nod as the nominee.
Winning Iowa and New Hampshire not only won't trigger a similar result this time, not right now, it doesn't look like it's going to happen anyway. Furthermore, I think the possibility of multiple frontrunners favors Al Gore.
To become the nominee, you have to get 2,182 delegates -- some are super delegates etc. but the majority are elected. Interestingly enough, with all the focus and all that money being spent on the first four states, and there are only 137 total delegates at stake there. Kerry used this to his advantage, because the timing favored an early winner back in 2004 when Super Tuesday was in early March, seven plus weeks after Iowa.
In 2008, with Super Tuesday just three weeks after Iowa combined with the very really chance of split among the early states diminishes, not increases, the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire.
Right now, it looks like the first four states could be won by at least two, if not three different candidates, though, of course, it still is a long way off. But lets say Edwards does win Iowa. Richardson focuses on Nevada and does well there. So neither Hillary nor Obama runs the tables.
All of a sudden, the process is heading into high-delegate, cross-country, unchartered territory Super Tuesday mode and it's a horse race -- where would Gore get the delegates?
Not only that, but before the first four are done, in fact on the same day as South Carolina, on January 29, two weeks after Iowa kicks it off, guess who is having their primary? Florida. Al Gore back in Florida? Something tells me he might get a fair amount of press out of that, what do you think?
Florida has 185 total delegates at stake. More than the first four states combined. So even if Gore got totally wiped out of the first four -- despite evidence to the contrary in recent NH polling, he would be in the lead delegate wise if he won Florida. Interesting.
On February 5th, there are 1,754 delegates at stake. Here are the states and delegate totals where I think Gore does well.
California, 441
Colorado 71
Georgia 104
Tennessee 85
Idaho 23
Would New York go to Hillary? Probably. New Jersey? Maybe. But Gore would do well in all uncontested / not home turf states and I think on February 6th, he has the lead in delegates or, at worst, is second.
It's also interesting to note that at this point, should this scenario unfold, it very may well be down to Gore and Clinton so there are delegates and staff and supporters who might fold Gore's way.
One other scenario is for Gore to go early on the VP choice and pick Obama if Obama stumbles over the second half of 2007. Purely speculation now, but if anything, Gore might be willing to take some shots and make some decisions other candidates wouldn't.
Now the rest of the way gets very interesting because states that haven't played a role in the primaries, now have a chance to be critical. Texas has 228 delegates? Who knew?
Again, there are lots of states where I think Gore would do well. Ohio, Washington State, Oregon, Massachusetts. Every other leading candidate is hoping and wishing they don't have to play in Massachusetts. Gore? He'd be happy to. His message is simple, the media carries it and he's happy to go anywhere.
There are a million different ways to get to 2,182 but as I talked about a few days ago.
Al Gore can raise the money.
Al Gore can run a four-month campaign.
Al Gore can get to 2,182.
But he needs to stand up by September 1 and start exploring.