Earlier this week, Howard Dean echoed what many are thinking, a protracted struggle for the nomination running into and perhaps to the end of the convention makes it hard to imagine we would have much success in November - I started writing about this before the Super Tuesday tie.
"The idea that we can afford to have a big fight at the convention and then win the race in the next eight weeks, I think, is not a good scenario. So, after the primaries are over, the last primary is June 8th in Puerto Rico - Puerto Rico I think, there may be another state with there - and after that if we don't have a nominee, I think we will have a nominee sometime in the middle of March or April. But if we don't, then we're going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement."
His odd statement in the middle about March or April following June is actually his opinion that someone was going to break apart on Super Tuesday which, of course, didn't happen.
While the campaigns are obsessing over the current delegate count, when the dust settles, it will be clear that the candidates are within 50-75 delegates of each other and there are just under 1,500 delegates left in the primaries and caucuses.
So, on June 3, we won't have a winner.
We will wait through June, July and August until the ever-so-mysterious Superdelegates vote, the 796 members of the Democratic National Committee whose votes are now far more important than anyone thought they would be.
And here's the rough breakdown.
796 Total
4 former Presidents and Vice-Presidents
30 Democratic Governors
51 Current Democratic Senators Plus 2 former Senators
226 Current Democratic Congressmen Plus 2 former Speakers of the House
485 Members of the DNC and a few 'others'
Even though some have argued that SuperDelegates should vote with their states popular votes, even Senator Obama has been calling for this, I both disagree and don't see that as practical.
For one, Senator Obama might not be so interested in having John Kerry, Ted Kennedy and Deval Patrick vote for Senator Clinton. And unless one candidate got 100% of the vote in a state, the state had supporters for the other candidate so I don't think this will happen.
However, there is one way to avoid a brokered convention and it appears to me that the rules could be changed to allow this to happen.
Make the 796 vote now or as soon is possible, two weeks away perhaps.
Call a meeting in Washington DC, where the majority of Superdelegates either are, or can be relatively easily.
Any that don't show to vote lose their vote and the total required delegates for the nomination declines but an amount equaling no shows.
This way, the last 1,000 delegates in the primaries and caucuses will determine the nominee, not party insiders at the end. I actually think Paul Abrams also has a good idea, re-schedule the Michigan and Florida primaries at the end - in early June.
Is this a perfect solution? No. But it is more likely than Howard Dean being able to broker an arrangement; and it is far preferable to not having a nominee until September.
This way, the public gets the last word, not the party - and that's the way it should be.
Howard, what do you think?