The single best piece of political advice I have heard offered someone running for president was this:
Put down the polls and look out the window.
I thought of this yesterday as the markets fell to new lows, blah blah blah, because people were shocked that AIG had actually announced a $61.7 billion loss and that someone nameless at the Treasury Department, I love that part, decided to give $30 billion to AIG -- of our money.
The fact that this was shocking is well, not just shocking by pathetic. Right here at the Huffington Post on February 25th, I had written an entire post on the matter.
The answer I fear, for all of us, really is that I am not a complete idiot but I have a suggestion for who is -- the 'economists' who are constantly quoted in newspapers and articles, especially those who are quoted as a 'survey of leading economists.' These 'experts' couldn't find their own asses with their own hands on a good day.
Time and time again, over the past 24 months, we have heard rosy reports of future happiness from this oracles of error that have been proven time and time again to be laughably wrong.
Think I exaggerate? Am guilty of hyperbole? I think not.
For example, just this morning,
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast pending home sales to fall 3.0 percent in January.
3% down? Economists plural? Well, let me tell you something. 3% seems like an awful light number given the news of the last three months, 3% is a dip. So what happened?
The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in January, plunged 7.7 percent to 80.4, the lowest since the NAR started tracking the series in 2001.
Oops, seems like our calculator-laden heroes of forecasting missed it by just this much. Well, they missed it by over 100%. Pathetic.
"We expect similarly soft home sales in the near term, but buyers are expected to respond to much improved affordability conditions and from the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit."
Who said that? The chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, the same geniuses who, two hours ago, were predicting a slight decline in sales.
We're on our own folks, let me tell you, we are own our own. Housing prices are going down another 30% to historical means and then, maybe, we'll have a floor. Until then, it's everyone for themselves and don't listen to the experts.
These people are idiots.