Flush with victory from Iowa, Barack Obama's campaign begin to think not of victory in the remaining Democratic primaries and caucuses but of the general election and in preparing to move into the White House in January 2009.
Ironically, he opportunity was there for the taking and over the weekend between Iowa and New Hampshire even long term Clinton supporters, and on ground leaders, didn't see the way to win the Granite State as late as Sunday.
But win Clinton did.
And then she won again.
And again.
What happened? Hubris, plain and simple.
There were widespread and deep criticisms of the manner in which the Obama campaign was being run over the summer and into the early fall, most of them fair. Many felt, including myself, that the 2008 Obama Campaign was a personality-driven repeat of the Edwards Campaign in 2004 -- David Axelrod's lastest incarnation of a personality uber-alles campaign.
Looking at John Edwards now, you can't help but wonder if he wants to say: Barack, I was in your shoes four years ago and I learned two things. A great stump speech only gets you so far, and hope isn't a strategy.
Barack's message of hope and vision and of a changing world is without a doubt inspiring, and for the first time in quite a while, we have a Democratic candidate who has had the marketing and the speechwriting of the finest order. For far too long, we've been the product party only to be outmarketed by the right, now we have flipped the equation and it was a breath of fresh air to many Democrats.
For those of us who suffered through 2000 and 2004, it was as if we had reached a crucial, George Lakoff-induced high. While both Al Gore and John Kerry were incredibly qualified, incredibly serious and would have both made great Presidents, the presentation, advertising and marketing was pathetic.
Worse than pathetic.
The Kerry Campaign managed to spend $100 million plus on advertising and marketing and go backwards from where Gore was in 2000. 2000 was also a disaster for the Democrats.
So it is not surprising that reasonable people got caught up in the hope and vision not just of Obama, but of a candidate who had the ability to express his hope and vision. The victory speech in Iowa is the single best political speech I have ever seen in person or watched live in my life, end of story.
Riding that speech, and riding that momentum, it was on to Iowa.
In the snows of New Hampshire, Barack Obama had the chance to put the Clinton dynasty to rest, and hubris got him. They took their feet off the gas, they thought they had won, and they let a champion off of the mat and back in the game. Once the champion is back standing, only trouble lies ahead and trouble is what Obama has.
His situation, of course, is far from desperate and the race is far from over, but it's how the campaign is reacting is what would concern me if I was an Obama supporter.
The best analogy I can think of is of a very spoiled child who has just gotten their favorite toy taken away from them. They are pouty, whiny and wrong.
But those who were inspired by the message of Barack should not be disappointed in it, but they should in the messenger's campaign.
Why would you spend more time attacking Democrats than Republicans?
Barack has insulted President Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry while praising Ronald Reagan? Why? The hubris that said I have already won the nomination and am moving onto the general.
Why would you consciously ignore the netroots, the land where hope and passion lives in the party? Why? Hubris, and the knowledge that you are truly not as progressive as they are, and the hope the distance will make the differences less apparent.
Why would you repeat right wing talking points, "social security is in crisis?" Who knows? I think this is just pure stupidity.
And who can you not be ready in California? Hubris as campaign offices open two weeks before a must win primary.
Now the news comes that Obama has broken the pledge not to campaign in Florida, and Hillary will eat his lunch.
With the whining of Nevada still ringing in their ears, when Obama again got outworked, outflanked and outfought, Democrats around the country are looking at two choices.
Hillary Clinton is showing us she knows how to fight.
Barack Obama is showing us he's not ready for prime time.
More and more the campaign is about Barack's personality and just like John Edwards in 2004, another David Axelrod creation, personality alone doesn't win The White House.
To make matters worse, the problem is Barack has to talk about hope and working together while he fights a tougher opponent than he. Last night at the debate, I saw a lot of sniping and yelling; it wasn't especially a stellar evening for either candidate but it was more unseemly for Barack than for Hillary. He's about hope, she's about the fight.
This chasm is an incongruity that the Obama campaign had never planned on overcoming. But they must. And they must grow up along the way -- and attacking Republicans might be a good idea instead of attacking Democrats.
Otherwise, two weeks from tomorrow, hope will be all that's left.