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James Kwak

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Fiscal Affairs: Mitt Romney Still Can't Do Arithmetic*

Posted: 04/17/2012 8:05 am

From Mitt Romney's closed-door fundraiser yesterday, courtesy of NBC:

"I'm going to probably eliminate for high income people the second home mortgage deduction," Romney said, adding that he would also likely eliminate deductions for state income and property taxes as well.


"By virtue of doing that, we'll get the same tax revenue, but we'll have lower rates," Romney explained.

Let's check Romney's arithmetic.

The home mortgage deduction was worth $22 billion to households making over $200,000 in 2009. Even if half of that was attributable to second houses -- and the actual figure is certainly less -- that gives you $11 billion. The deduction for state and local income taxes was worth $20 billion for those same households. So together you get a total of $31 billion.

The top 1 percent paid about 36 percent of individual income taxes in 2009, which were $915 billion. So they paid $329 billion in individual income taxes.

Even if we assume that all $31 billion in benefits from the deductions for interest on a second home and state and local taxes went to households in the top 1%--an unrealistic assumption, since the cutoff for the 1% is far above $200,000--that only brings their taxes up to $360 billion. Factor in the 20 percent across-the-board cut in rates that Romney has promised, and their taxes fall to $288 billion. Net, that's a $41 billion reduction. On top of that, you have to add Romney's proposed reduction in corporate income taxes, since the rich pay a large proportion of corporate income taxes, at least according to the Tax Policy Center and the CBO.

Republican tax cut plans fall into two categories: the ones that don't bother pretending that they're going to be revenue neutral and the ones that do. But the latter can never make the numbers add up because you can't have massive rate cuts and be revenue neutral unless you're willing to eliminate popular tax expenditures for the middle class, the preference for investment income (the most important tax break for the rich people who pay for Republican politicians' campaigns), or both.

This is the guy who's supposed to be the hard-headed businessman?

* The title is a reference to this Atlantic column, which shows that there just aren't enough tax expenditures to balance out the huge rate cuts that Romney has promised to the 1%.

James Kwak is the co-author of White House Burning: The Founding Fathers, Our National Debt, and Why It Matters To You, available from April 3rd. This post is cross-posted from The Baseline Scenario. Read more from the Fiscal Affairs series here.

 
 
 

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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Mdw01
Proud as hell to be in the 47 percent!
08:36 AM on 04/18/2012
Romney continues to make it up as he goes and hope no one will challenge his assertions. His feet have to be held to the fire for policies until election day. He thinks Americans are too stupid to ask and he can keep it all secret until after the election. I have a secret for Mitt. 55 percent of us want answers now.
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hankashley
My micro-bio does not meet HuffPo guidelines.
11:02 PM on 04/17/2012
I like math. It can be a lie detector.
01:51 PM on 04/17/2012
I realize I am not the typical person that posts here, but I am always so suprised how uninformed the opinions are. People here just follow where they are told to go. No need to think, just agree without knowing what you are agreeing to. No matter if it's true or not. Just get in line with the rest of the lemmings and leap off the cliff when it's your turn. Did you even go to the original article and read it to see if this author is reporting the whole story or just the part that pushes that persons point of view. I wonder if the author even read the article. Here is a small sample that seems to be overlooked.

"I'm going to take a lot of departments in Washington, and agencies, and combine them. Some eliminate, but I'm probably not going to lay out just exactly which ones are going to go," Romney said. "Things like Housing and Urban Development, which my dad was head of, that might not be around later. But I'm not going to actually go through these one by one. What I can tell you is, we've got far too many bureaucrats. I will send a lot of what happens in Washington back to the states."

He is talking about shinking government. Less spending.
PROGRESSISGOOD
Without Economic Justice, There Is No Justice!
01:23 PM on 04/17/2012
Vulture capitalists don't need no stinkin math! They just buy troubled companies on the cheap, sell off all the valuable assets, layoff workers, slash wages and benefits, stuff their pockets with salary and bonus as "operating managers," then they sell to the next vulture in line who does the same thing until the rotting decaying carcass of the American middle class has no fight left in it.
4spdstick
imagine no religion
02:03 PM on 04/17/2012
that's true. vulture capitalists don't create wealth or value in any way.they take a healthy thriving company, buy up the stock, (hostile takeover), and proceed to gut the company, leaving a sad, ravaged carcass. this is what mitt romney did for a living. you can call it work, but i don't. i call it exploitation. using wealth to destroy wealth. i don't call anything "work" unless something is produced, or fixed, or even cleaned
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
SURFERMOM
taking pics of surfer son
01:22 PM on 04/17/2012
We need to reform Medicare,Medicaid and Social Security and fix these programs so we can sustain them the next 100+ years and so they do not add to deficit spending,which is part and parcel of reforming the health insurance-the HCA to cut medical waste and govt.spending.We need to cut defense spending for long term and short term in the billions, we need to streamline waste at all Departments, not just the Republicans favorites of HUD,Education and Interior.All including State Department.Cutting PP,National Endowment for the Arts or Head Start is just slivers of percentages and completely stupid for the damage and the holes that would leave behind for Americans that benefit and count on them.We need to let all tax cuts expire.All loopholes that cost the most and give a benefit to the fewest amount of people-the top 1% of all incomes.Tax capital gains,hedge fund manager revenues made from managing the funds and off shore investments.Lower corporate taxes to be competitive with other global partners and all small business LLC's,incorporated sb owners and sole proprietors should have their tax rate lowered to 15%!closing loopholes on corps that file themselves off shore.End oil subsidies, farm subsidies, coal and gas subsidies that are unneccesary.There should pain for everyone,not just the segments less powerful than the wealthiest that can afford lobbyists,PAC money and political contributions.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Platinumputter
Helping Liberals Tell the Truth
01:18 PM on 04/17/2012
I guess he didn't bother to read Paul Ryan's tax plan which balances the federal budget.
PROGRESSISGOOD
Without Economic Justice, There Is No Justice!
01:46 PM on 04/17/2012
Guess you didn't either. The budget does not balance under Ryan's plan, even with the draconian cuts to social security and medicare.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Platinumputter
Helping Liberals Tell the Truth
02:29 PM on 04/17/2012
I can only read news reports, analysis and comments. All which support my contention that supports his statements that his plan will balance the federal budget.

Now let's turn to your crowd on the left. Where is their budget? And what is in it?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
winwithoutrwar
01:11 PM on 04/17/2012
Talks are easy, especially from people like Romney and look alike.
Thanks for pointing out Romney's one-way street for the rich and famous..
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Hank Rearden
Get out of the cart and help pull
01:09 PM on 04/17/2012
You are saying Mitt can't do "arithmetic" because of the vast difference in the $31 B in reduced deduction revenue vs $41B in tax rate reduction revenue?

Great Googly Moogly. This is absurd. Obamutt is out touting the all mighty Buffet Rule which will raise $47B over 10 years vs the $11.2 TRILIOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNNNNNNN in budget deficit spending.

The delusion is stupefying. Truly you libs are living in a world where Unicorns and flowers fly out of your ...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
htimsr40
Read Me, Doctor Memory??
01:06 PM on 04/17/2012
The first tax break that should go is the favorable treatment of investment income that is unrelated to actual investment in a company. It is one thing to incentivize people to put money into a business ... it is something altogether different to incentivize people to bet on a business without raising any capital for the business ... which is what 99%+ of the stock market trades are.

It is a sad commentary that we reward people for betting on the stock market versus working for a living.
01:03 PM on 04/17/2012
I will, and have many times already, admit that I am no mathematical genius, but I still can't figure out where they think the money to float the nation is going to come from if they complete breaking the middle class and enlarging the poverty class. Many of the young people are drowning in college and credit debt. Last I checked citizens made up the largest portion of the population, and most of them are not in the 1%. If we don't have money to spend and buy products to support businesses and industries, who will? Are the 1%....can the 1% ...replace the spending that the general public has always done? And if the 1% don't want to pay higher taxes, and the rest of the country doesn't have it, where's the money going to come from? Are they going to have a garage sale of the US, opened to buyers in the rest of the world? I don't know. Does anyone?
PROGRESSISGOOD
Without Economic Justice, There Is No Justice!
01:50 PM on 04/17/2012
The 1% have already abandoned Americans. They can make just as much, or more, profit from the Chineese, Indians, Russians, Brazillians, etc., etc.,

These past 30 years of conservative tax policies were intended to give the 1% as much wealth as they could gather so they could buy up the rest of the world before it became too expensive. Now they benefit more from those financial investments in foreign countries than they do with the business and industry they eviscerated here in America.

To the Republicans and the 1% THANKS FOR NOTHING!
02:30 PM on 04/17/2012
If that is true, I hope I get a sort of 'fly on the wall' position one day so I can see what happens when it's only them left and they start going after one another.

Well, on second thought. No. I don't want to see that. I'll just wish that they get everything they deserve.
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Hank Rearden
Get out of the cart and help pull
03:53 PM on 04/17/2012
Do you realize if you took all of the 1% ers income you would still not balance your crazy liberal spending? Do you ? Do you?
Syllogizer
Barely Left of Pobedonostsev
12:57 PM on 04/17/2012
Kwak doesn't get it. Of course Captain Holy Underpants can do arithmetic. But he refuses to do it, because he knows the voters he is conning refuse to do it. It is sad but true: a LOT of voters out there do not understand the simple arithmetic Kwak is talking about. Worse yet, they don't care to understand it. They are going to vote for liars anyway.

It is as if they decided to take as the chief political slogan for our times, the line from the song, "Tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies".
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
fb0252
12:55 PM on 04/17/2012
ahhh!!! today is tax day. some people pay tax today. most get $8000 refund. what a great country!
.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
LeftRight
TANSTAAFL
01:23 PM on 04/17/2012
Most get FAR FAR FAR less than an $8,000 refund. Furthermore, that is simply to cover the fact that they make SO little money that they cannot afford to pay taxes...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
fb0252
02:50 PM on 04/17/2012
if that were true. here is typical situation come across desk every day.

3 children, work 3 months per year, get $8000 tax refund, child support from 3 diff. fathers, pay dirt if one work for GM, food stamp, medicaid and unemployment. live with boyfriend that makes $40,000/year. His income is unreported for earned income tax credit purposes. need to get out more possibly leftright.
PROGRESSISGOOD
Without Economic Justice, There Is No Justice!
01:52 PM on 04/17/2012
REFUND: return of something already paid. Getting your money back that Uncle Sam borrowed over this past year is not a gain.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
fb0252
02:47 PM on 04/17/2012
u need get out more progressisgood. look at a few tax return. have a few baby. u get nice $8000 refund too.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
nkurland
I'm going to leave this planet alive
12:55 PM on 04/17/2012
The Republican party doesn't even believe their own propaganda. Not surprisingly, the party refuses to provide any hard evidence for their claim that reduced tax rates would enhance growth, save for the claiming the reforms would be "pro-growth."

For Ryan and the hard right, tax cut are not just payback to their overwhelmingly wealthy constituency, but a means to an end. When they lower top marginal rates WE have to make up for it through elimination of healthcare tax exemptions and repeal of the mortgage interest deduction. When the final tax overhaul reduces revenues as a percent of GDP WE have to sacrifice everything from aid to the poor to retirement security and even funds necessary to enforce remaining laws on the books.

Ryan's austerity budget is a clear example of political opportunism. There's no other objective way to look at it.
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12:51 PM on 04/17/2012
You say that he's already the candidate. You evidently also have a problem with math.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
everything news
I have no bio.
12:47 PM on 04/17/2012
I wish that the debate should be on Romney's banking in foreign countries. Did he do that to evade paying our countrie's taxes. If that is the case then he does not qualify to be President of the USA.
He was not giving allegiance to this country, he was giving allegiancey to HIS MONEY.