What does an Asian leader, bankrolled primarily by the United States, do when faced with a collapsing country, a renegade judiciary and a charismatic female political opponent? It all depends on who is living in the White House.
Today's resident of the White House is George W. Bush. The president has squandered American budget surpluses, is in the process of losing an un-losable war in Afghanistan, doomed the military to a multi-generational quagmire in Iran and engineered the loss of our nation's position as the world's unquestioned leader in moral, military and economic matters.
The Bush administration "warned" Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the American lap dog leader in Islamabad, to heed the bad omens and, at the very least, work out a power sharing arrangement with the political opposition. Musharraf jumped off the lap lifted his leg to splash a strong stream of defiance on the block walls of the White House. His message is almost North Korean in its clarity: 'Who cares what you think, George Bush?'
A generation ago, on the far side of Asia, an American lap dog leader faced a collapsing country, a renegade judiciary and a charismatic female opponent. Ferdinand Marcos asked White House emissary Paul Laxalt what he should do. ''I think you should cut and cut cleanly," Senator Laxalt said. "I think the time has come.'' Marcos asked if the advice had been authorized by President Ronald Reagan. Yes it had, Laxalt said. Marcos and his family fled Malacanang Palace in the dark of night under covering fire of half a dozen .30 caliber machine guns.
What's the difference?
Marcos was afraid of Ronald Reagan. Musharraf doesn't fear George Bush.
Ronald Reagan relied on actor's skills, sternly facing down enemies without ever having to swing the Rooseveltian big stick. He stood in Berlin wall and ordered the second most powerful man in the world to "tear down this wall." He bristled not with policies but with bluster.
It has been clear for many months that Pakistan was heading toward martial law and the Bush administration continued to throw miniature Band-Aids at gushing wounds.
The U.S. engineered deal for the return of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto that would provide Musharraf a middle ground to save face and avoid lynching.
The deal ignores reality. "We are a country at war, we have always been at war, for the moment it is all we know," a Pakistani military intelligence official told me from Asia last week. "We have no experience with compromise. It will be some time before we can make a decision that doesn't start with the firing of a weapon."
Bhutto wasn't back in country for an hour before someone -- clearly with official backing -- switched off the street lights and ignited a lethal bomb that missed her but made it clear what Musharraf really thinks about power sharing.
For all his Texas bluster, George Bush remains a spoiled child of Greenwich, Connecticut, who plays a tough guy on television and not very convincingly.
Reagan played an oddly believable tough guy. The Berlin wall came down; Marcos moved to Hawaii and even the Nicaraguan pest Daniel Ortega allowed himself to get unelected.
Bush promised to "get" Bin Laden. He promised to transform Afghanistan. He insisted that Musharraf behave.
Musharraf is, like Marcos, a thug. Thugs do not respond to suggestions, they don't listen to entreaties. Thugs listen to threats. Laxalt didn't have to tell Marcos the price of noncompliance would bring because Marcos was afraid of Reagan.
Musharraf isn't afraid. When the U.S. decided to attack Afghanistan to provide political cover for the still smoldering hole that was once the World Trade Center, Musharraf was fully compliant. The Bush administration was so hell bent on playing the tough guy that they never heard nor pondered the price of Pakistani assistance.
In the crucial days after 9/11 Musharraf told the Bush White House that he would support the U.S. The grateful White House failed to listen to the rest of the sentence: Pakistani support came at a personal political price for the general. The move will create a political backlash within Pakistan that will eventually have to be faced.
In another example of the "What Me Worry" foreign policy program, the White House listened to only what it wanted to hear.
It's time for the U.S. to realize that even a lap dog can stand on three legs.