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James Peron

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Are Gays and Divorce Destroying the Welfare States?

Posted: 11/28/11 09:40 PM ET

If Janice Crouse of Concerned Woman for America is to be believed, the alleged "decline in marriage and breakdown of the family" hasn't merely hurt individuals but "undermined social institutions and shaken the stability and economic viability of nations."

We know, of course, that "decline in marriage and breakdown of the family" is code for things like equality of rights for gay people, the right to seek divorce, access to birth control and reproductive freedom. Exactly how do these shake "the stability and economic viability of nations?"

Crouse claims it is because welfare states are "facing demographic time bombs with dismal fertility rates and an increase in the so-called old-age dependence ratio...."

The problem with Crouse's scenario is that policies violating her narrow view of "family values" are not responsible for the decline in fertility rates. Anyone familiar with the topic knows there has been a long-term decline in fertility rates going back 200 years in the developed world, the only place welfare states exist.

This decline in birth rates predates the policies she attacks. This doesn't mean there isn't a demographic time bomb in welfare states. Those programs tended to be created during the Baby Boom years (1946 to 1964), and policy wonks assumed birth rates would continue to create an expanding workforce able to support the retired and needy. However, the boom was followed by a baby bust, while medical technology and good living conditions extended old age. Even with diminishing birth rates, populations expanded massively, driven by large declines in death rates. A crisis has been brewing ever since.

While higher birth rates would alleviate some of the stress, the reality is that trends in lowering birth rates began long before the policies that Crouse would damn. Reproductive rights, divorce, and same-sex marriage were not factors two centuries ago, when the decline began. If anything is to blame, it is liberal capitalism that increased prosperity, lowered the economic incentives to have large families, produced the knowledge and resources to limit pregnancies, promoted equality for women and widespread education. Women married later in their life. Multiple factors related to increased individual freedom and prosperity helped limit the number of births. Where the average American woman would endure seven births in the 1800s, today it is likely to be one or two, with some choosing more. It is a choice for most women today, not a requirement; and most want to be more than just breeding stock.

What Crouse cannot explain is how the policies she lamented are responsible for the global decline in fertility rates. Even nations that are not known for social tolerance, women's rights, or gay rights, such as Iran, have seen the same decline. Under Islamist theocracy the TFR was 6.5 in 1991; by 2009 it was 1.7. Surely Crouse does not believe that Iran implemented easy divorce, women's lib, and gay marriage?

Maybe women aren't considering "the economic vitality of nations," but there was a time when conservatives thought putting individual rights ahead of collectivistic nationalism was a good thing. What makes these choices possible for women were trends and principles put into place long ago. Policies from the last half-century have had little impact on the trend that has been in place since the 1800s.

Considering the emphasis religious-right groups put on same-sex marriage, I thought it useful to check birth rates in nations at the time they instituted marriage equality and compare them to today. Has there been a difference in trends already in place?

Canada's first same-sex marriage was in 2001. The total fertility rate at the time was 1.51 children per woman. After eight years of same-sex marriage, birth rates saw an increase to 1.7 children, but this is around levels from 10 years before marriage equality, so there was no significant change. Belgium legalized same-sex marriage in 2003. Ten years prior, the TFR was 1.6. The last statistic the World Bank has on TFR is for 2009, when it was 1.8. After same-sex marriage, birth rates in Belgium increased. The Netherlands first started looking into marriage equality in 1995 and eventually passed a law in 2000. Ten years prior, in 1990, the TFR was 1.6. It stood at 1.7 in 1995, and today it is 1.8, so birth rates increased in the Netherlands since marriage equality. (All fertility rates courtesy of the World Bank.)

The reality is that most "welfare states" don't have marriage equality. Those that do, such as Norway and Sweden, implemented those policies very recently -- 2008 for Norway and 2009 for Sweden -- much too soon to make any legitimate pronouncements. The earliest Scandinavian state to come close to marriage equality was Denmark, which created "registered partnerships" in 1989. At that time the TFG was 1.7; after 20 years of gay partnerships the TFR rate stood at 1.8.

These facts are even clearer when we look at the nations Crouse singled out for concern: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. In Portugal same-sex marriage has only been legal for one year, hardly long enough to be responsible for anything. In Ireland same-sex marriage is not yet legal, nor is the crisis in Ireland due to total fertility rate, since its TFR is on par with that of the United States: 2.1. In Italy same-sex marriage is not legal and thus not related to their economic woes. In fact, in the last few years Italy has had a very slight increase in the TFR, from 1.3 to 1.4. The economic crisis in Greece is unrelated to marriage equality, since there isn't any. Spain legalized same-sex marriage in 2005. Ten years prior the TFR was 1.2. By 2009 it had increased to 1.4. In fact, most of the nations that implemented marriage equality saw slight increases in their fertility rates, not declines.

Welfare states face demographic problems. They do so because birth rates are not high enough to cover the costs of extended life spans. But these two demographic trends predate any of the policies that the religious right blames for the "crisis of the family." They may lament marriage equality, unmarried mothers, divorce rates, or even welfare, but none of these policies be held responsible for creating the conflicting trends in the welfare state that concern Crouse.

A more in-depth fisking of Crouse and her claims can be found here.

 
 
 
 
 
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01:28 AM on 12/09/2011
The more one gets use to a certain standard of living, the more they want to keep it. Raising children is very expensive and getting more expense every year. Over time more and more people will opt to work more and raise fewer children in order too keep their living standard higher.
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darquelourd
You Get What You Play For
04:57 PM on 11/29/2011
Luckily, the super wealthy have been squirreling away tons of money over the last 30 years which we simply need to extract from them through taxation.

Problem solved.

Oh yes, and cut the Defense budget in half. Then you could mail a check for $1,000 to every American at Christmas time probably for years to come.
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
03:56 PM on 11/29/2011
Where did you come up with her blaming gay marriage? 40% of births in the US are now out of wedlock, the divorce rate is about 40%. Those clearly show a "decline in marriage and breakdown of the family", just like she says, and she does not blame gays. This is pure paranoia.
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LintLass
"When you can balance a tackhammer on your head...
01:47 AM on 11/30/2011
Trust me, we hear it a lot, particularly from the anti-equality lobby.
Dad24
The Right is Wrong
03:55 PM on 11/29/2011
There you go again - confusing them with facts.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
iskra
Natural enemy of sharks and tro//s
02:15 PM on 11/29/2011
Since most of our states that are welfare states are staunch conservative ones, while the overall birth rates are dwindling, one thing those Red states do have is high teenage pregnancy.
01:17 PM on 11/29/2011
Welfare State dead? Not corporate welfare......off with their heads now!
Cheers, Joe Mustich, CT USA
Marriage Officiant & Justice of the Peace
http://www.occupywallst.org
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Elbrando
The dream shall never die - Ted Kennedy
12:58 PM on 11/29/2011
When you understand that conservatism is interesting in theory but hypocritical in practice you understand how such statements can exist. When the last "conservative president was in office he expanded the government and doubled the debt. Reagan the conservative champion raised taxes eleven times. The leaders of the conservative movement count on the ignorance of its followers to have power over them and to acquire wealth.

"Ignorance is not merely the lack of knowledge, but self-destructive turning away from truth in all areas of life. Persons develop a taste for ignorance, the predisposition to embrace erroneous beliefs based on presumption or mere authority. The ignorant person believes he knows what he actually doesn't know. He becomes delusional. He is deranged." - Plato
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scottishboy
Born in the USA!
12:38 PM on 11/29/2011
If it is, I guess I'm for it.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Bill J4321
12:17 PM on 11/29/2011
It must be nice to be a heterosexual (*** HuffPo commenter 'mchcallow' - heterosexual comment disclaimer alert!!! ***) and be able to blame the failures of your marriages and families on gay people who have nothing to do with you or your lives. (Similarly, can you imagine a gay person blaming the demise of their marriage or destruction of their family on straight people? Even with the amount of proof we hold that they do so?)

But the real questions they should be asking is WHY? How does blaming gay people for your own personal failures CHANGE your situation at all? Or are you just looking for someone to take blame simply so you do not have to? How is the blame game of benefit to you in any way, shape or form?
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09:46 AM on 11/29/2011
People with "conservative" views don't acually BELIEVE what they say. They don't care whether anythings true or not. It's not about facts or even beliefs. It's about personal agendas of control. They will say whatever gets them the power and control over others that they seek. If you contradict their facts they will simply choose another convenient one.

What they realy believe is that they want to control other people... especially women. Control of gays is a subset of this, as control of women requires strictly enforced gender roles of dominant males and submissive females. Gay relationships threaten these gender roles. Gender phobia...terror of gender non conformity...is the engine of their social control. And their "beliefs" seem to have them magically always end up on the top of the power pyramid.
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wakeupyouall
11:50 AM on 11/29/2011
Well said. I believe the highest divorce rates in this country are amoung red state evangelical. It is all about control.
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Jeff Forsythe
08:45 AM on 11/29/2011
I think that in these difficult times, it is not easy for people to distinguish the difference between good and bad when its comes to such moral issues as premarital sex, drug abuse, gay rights, abortion, euthanasia, etc.
I consider myself very lucky because I practice Falun Gong, which allows me to know the difference between right and wrong and Falun Gong has answered and is still answering my many questions about life.
It is a free practice with tens of millions of practitioners Worldwide. Thank you.
10:41 AM on 11/29/2011
I think most people know the difference between right and wrong. Consistently doing right is what we all lack as flawed human beings.
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practiceempathy
Tolerance need not yield to willful ignorance.
11:28 AM on 11/29/2011
If a person knows, truly KNOWS a gay person who is good, and they truly listen to that gay person, the "right and wrong' question is easy to answer, and fast.
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Vincent Van Der Hyde
The truth will set you free.
05:36 AM on 11/29/2011
The decline in birth rates is only a 'crisis' in capitalist economies in which consumer driven 'consumption' drives the economy. A more modern society operating under socialist conditions would only need the goods and services of a much smaller population, not the ever expanding markets required by capitalist economies. That means that fewer people would have to work, fewer would have to work full time, retirement would come at a younger age, and resources would be consumed at a much lower rate. All of which is a good idea---you just have to change the 'business model' you're operating under so it's NOT profit driven.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
James Peron
05:46 AM on 11/29/2011
No prominent economist believe consumption drives the economy. It doesn't. Production does. There is no need to stimulate consumption as humans are born with a need to consume in order to survive. And, oddly no socialist state has ever achieved the utopia of which you dream.
09:30 AM on 11/29/2011
Okay, let's test your theory. Let's say you produce 100,000 Squidgets. You advertise in print and online, and wait for customers to show up. You have a few initially, but sales never amount to what you'd hoped for. You're wondering if you can afford to keep your doors open with sales so slow. The next thing you know, the economy tanks and soon demand drops off to next to nothing. You're left with 95,000 Squidgets you can't sell.

Now, are you going to stay in business and produce more Squidgets? Is the fact that the Squidgets are available enough to bring shoppers to your store? Or do you have to have a desirable product, in the first place, and people with money in their pockets, in the second place?
10:33 AM on 11/29/2011
Not sure I can completely agree with your point James. The ability to consume is vital. Stimulating consumption may not be needed, but if you have no customers who can buy, you can produce all you want and lose your business. MegWright has the right idea. No consumers, no business. Jobs create jobs, so, yes, more production does drive more consumption, but not directly as you seem to imply. You presume a standard rate of consumption. When consumers can only afford less, decisions are made to consume less. Money in the pocket increases the ability to consume. Less money, less consumption, less needed production.
A widget maker will need transportation, food, tools, clothes, banks, communication devices, etc. Stimulating consumption is not the goal of a stimulus. It is to increase the ability to consume which will drive that needed increase in production, which will lead to a better overall economy, because again, new jobs create more new jobs exponentially. Increasing production won't fix it all by itself (see efficiencies)
03:34 PM on 11/29/2011
Capitalism is an economic system in which investment in and ownership of the means of production, distribution, and exchange of wealth is made by private parties, not coercive governments. What part of that requires "capitalist economies" to need "ever expanding markets?"

The "crisis" of which Mr. Peron speaks refers to how many producers support the non-producers. It's true that "smaller populations" require less production (fewer workers), but what does that have to do with the ratio between producers (taxpayers) and non-producers (welfare recipients)? Does a smaller Socialist economy have fewer non-producers per capita than a capitalist one?

It's also true that government programs don't need to be "profit driven" because government can compel payment, via taxation, regardless of efficiency. How could they possibly provide as much bang for the buck as businesses that only thrive if they meet competition?
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waldopepper
I'd tell you all about me if you were my friend.
03:42 AM on 11/29/2011
"...decline in marriage and breakdown of the family" Is actually caused by something that not even the most deluded backward looking right-wing fantasists is prepared to criticize. The emancipation of Women.

Two factors in Women's emancipation are responsible.

1). Society expects/demands them to take their place in the workplace - in addition to retaining their traditional roles (as the men in their lives claim that they do 50% but in reality do not.)

and

2). Through the development of widespread economical and effective birth control.

These two developments have freed Women and they need not remain in abusive relationships and now can pick and choose their mates with as much (if not more freedom) as men can.

This is the cause of marriage breakdown. And it is a good thing, as those marriages that do breakdown - should! But in the past these marriages could not die. Consequently Women were paying the price with their bodies in the currency of bruises, and with the constant psychological misery of having to remain in a marriage of tyranny.

Freedom (this time brought about by more economic equality) is a good thing, but as always there are unintended and sometimes sad consequences.
09:35 AM on 11/29/2011
One other factor is improved health care, so that women can count on most of their children living into adulthood. In the past, one could have six children and only have two survive. In addition, when farming was the primary way to make a living, the more children couples had, the more farm hands they had to help with the process of making a living.

I have a family geneology that goes back to 1653. It's fascinating to see how many children people had, and how few they raised to adulthood. There were families that had 13 children and had only 3 survive. That's key to why families no longer felt the need to have so many children. Even before most women moved into the work force, families had gotten smaller. When women were able to go out to work, 2.4 children became the norm, and of course the number has dropped even further now.
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NOTSUPERMOM
A waste of a perfectly good Yale education
10:25 AM on 11/29/2011
You make very good points, but I think you are incorrect in believing that the right wing would hesitate to criticize women's liberation. It's one of their basic talking points, under the guise of "family values."
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ChaCubed
Republicans: the Antichrist
12:25 AM on 11/29/2011
There are only two people in each marriage that can damage the sanctity of their marriage.
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obtusegoose
aka David in Houston
10:11 AM on 11/29/2011
...plus the gay couple that lives down the street, that may or may not be married. It doesn't matter. They're gay. So they're personally responsible for the destruction of morality, marriage, families and America.

*this message brought to you by the GOP
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wakeupyouall
12:02 PM on 11/29/2011
50% of all marriages end in divorce and it all the fault of gays.
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LMPE
I connect the most dissimilar things
11:20 PM on 11/28/2011
You know who damaged the sanctity of marriage? Mark Sanford
HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
Grada3784
God is a Parent, not an abuser.
12:01 AM on 11/29/2011
The guy who took a hike before his wife told him to?
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LMPE
I connect the most dissimilar things
02:04 AM on 11/29/2011
Perfect description.