The Double Sputnik of 2008: An End to Illusions

With apologies to George W. Bush, I don't think our President looked very clearly into Vladimir Putin's eyes and saw the alleged goodness of his soul . I think Putin was wearing his KGB happyface when the two men first met in 2001, and Bush fell for it.

With apologies to Al Gore, I don't think the Russian invasion of nearby Georgia will be "carbon neutral." I don't think the Russians give a kopeck about our precious global warming concerns, and to the extent they might believe that global warming is a real phenomenon, they are all for it: Who wouldn't want to warm up Siberia and turn the Russian Arctic into a blue-water coastline?

With apologies to Bill Clinton, who let the Chinese have our missile technology, and then called the Chinese our "strategic partner," I don't think the Chinese have any sort of plan for "partnering" with us. China has a plan for trading with us, and for building up its financial capital and their industrial capacity, and so far its plan is working marvelously.

Meanwhile, the Chinese achievement at the Olympics -- especially the opening ceremony, which made virtually no political or cultural concessions to the West -- is a signal as to where China is headed. They have every intention of cooperating with us in areas agreeable to them (free trade and other international competitions that they can win), and no intention of cooperating in areas disagreeable to them (human rights, autonomy for Tibet, independence for Taiwan).

The truth is that the Chinese aren't looking to America for a single thing other than money and technology. They don't want our national vision, they want their national vision. They don't want to be Americans, they want to be Chinese. To be sure, there are plenty of Chinese who don't agree with the overall thrust of Chinese politics -- but most of the vocal critics live outside of China.

Today, in August 2008, we are seeing the end of the illusion that American political values will shape the rest of the world. Indeed, we are seeing what Michael Lind of the New America Foundation first called a "Double Sputnik" -- that is, incidents in which the Russians, as well as Chinese, show their strength, their determination not to let the 21st century be another American Century.

In the meantime, President Bush, in Beijing as the crisis deepened, seemed more interested in schmoozing with the Chinese -- on their terms, not his -- than in confronting the geopolitical upheaval of the Russian invasion of Georgia. The photo of the president on the White House website as of 3:30 pm ET on Monday, showing him tossing a pitch to the US Olympics baseball team, leads one to ask: Just what, exactly, is going through 43's mind? Most likely, Bush is thinking to himself that the US is already fully committed to Iraq and Afghanistan -- with an Iran war always a possibility -- and so America simply can't afford to have another enemy.

Late Monday afternoon, Bush belatedly came out against the Russian offensive, about the time that the Russians announced that they would stop the offensive. But nobody takes the Russians seriously, and one has to wonder, too, about Bush.

And so where's the rest of the world on the Georgia crisis?

Let's start with the United Nations: What's the UN Security Council going to do? Well, we know the answer, of course: Nothing. If the five permanent members (the US, Great Britain, France, Russia, and China) can each veto anything coming out of the Security Council, then nothing negative about any of them will ever emerge from the Security Council.

So what of other political formations? How about NATO? Sure, European leaders are talking, but the Russians aren't listening -- because they don't need to heed mere talk. To be sure, a few European voices have been raised: The BBC reports that Tory leader David Cameron has labeled Russia a "dangerous bully." And Cameron has further suggested that Georgia's membership application for NATO membership be "speeded up."

Well, that's a nice thought, coming from someone out of power, but it isn't going to happen, even if Cameron were to gain power and become the next British Prime Minister. Article Five of the North Atlantic Treaty calls for full mutual defense among NATO members -- that is, an attack on one is an attack on all. Which is to say, if Georgia were in NATO right now, all 26 members, including the US, would be at war with Russia. So that's why Georgia will not be in NATO.

Many insightful observers believe that Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili badly overplayed his geopolitical hand. That's no excuse for Russia's bad behavior, of course, merely one more explanation for why the "world community" isn't doing much.

In the meantime, Saakashvili is surely correct when he says that the Russians "want to get rid of us. They want to make regime change." Indeed. And that's a reminder that more than one country can play the regime-change game.

What's happening in Christian Georgia is surely tragedy, but one of the illusions that we must part with, in 2008, is the notion that we are moving toward some sort of "end of history" -- in which countries will grow closer together through democracy and capitalism, leaving us more time to concentrate on such peaceable pursuits as the reduction of carbon emissions. To put it another way, the environmental movement has hit a big roadblock: The world can only really think about difficult environmental cooperation in the absence of overt military confrontation.

The truth seems to be that the world might be moving away from communism, but it is not moving toward freedom--and certainly not carbon reduction.

As syndicated columnist Cal Thomas put it in a a column last week commemorating the death of Alexander Solzhenitsyn, the great Russian dissident was a firm enemy of Soviet-style totalitarianism, but he was not particularly a fan of American-style freedom--certainly not for his homeland of Russia. As Thomas put it:

"Mr. Solzhenitsyn warned the West not to be deluded by what he said was a false belief that all nations yearn to be like us. This thinking is at the heart of President Bush's doctrine for dealing with the Arab and Muslim world. Mr. Solzhenitsyn called this 'the blindness of superiority' and warned against thinking that only 'wicked governments' temporarily prevent other nations from 'adopting the Western way of life.'"

And so if the world isn't becoming more like the West, then what is it becoming like? The answer, most likely, is that the world is going to revert back to the way it was before the US won World War Two and imposed a Pax Americana on what we called "The Free World." Pre-1945, there were lots of great powers jockeying around, fighting proxy wars constantly, attacking each other when it suited them. And now, it seems, we are returning back to that world.

It is indeed sad when the illusions of an age melt away in the hot glare of a new era--although, of course, the great work of defending the United States, and its values, must continue in any era.

But meanwhile, the Russians are going to be Russians, the Chinese are going to be Chinese - -and the rest of the world, too, will go its various ways.

So in the future, we Americans will look out at the world and see power plays, fighting, more power plays, and more fighting. And we had better be ready.

Comments

[lyingtruth]

Pinkerton, First, I must say that you sound much better on paper. But you still have it wrong!

Your entire pre-1945 disposition of the major powers is missing the single most influential element; corporate power. Just as Communism has given way to capitalism (including individual greed) so has the “Free World” relinquished social ethics and rights to the corporations.

Multi-national corporate interests are taking a stronger hold on the world daily. Putin didn’t stop his tanks in Georgia for fear of military retaliation. He stopped so that he could keep the flow of oil pumping. (Under his terms.)

Worldwide, no matter what your politics more and more laws will be changed, ethics weakened and freedoms lost because it is good for business.

The working stiffs will continue to take it on the chin, only more often and harder!

[CactusTom]

When it comes to Democracy, the Bush administration sure has set the bar low over the last eight years. In fact, it has been no secret that for many years good old Dick Cheney has been pushing the idea that the American executive branch ought to have near dictatorial powers, the absolute worst condition for trying to maintain a true Democracy. As they say, power begets power, and if this now be the case in the so called greatest Democracy in history, one can only imagine the difficulty of promoting and maintaining democracies in the rest of the world. Indeed, someone forgot to tell George Bush that Democracy starts with civil rights at home, not out the end of a gun abroad. We have set the worst example possible for the rest of the world, and the chickens are coming home to roost. It’s not going to be pretty.

[Hoelder]

Democracy only works when people participate. Capitalism only works when the owning class respects the rest of us as a big society. A society that cares about the poor, health care and education. If I look at the fundamentals of capitalism today, it is not interested in freedom or health or knowledge of a nation, because it has become multinational and less Democratic. It does not work for us. It works for the governments that own it. Increasingly foreign nation have taken ownership and there is no regulatory government of any kind. The French throughout their history have pursued hegemony as a policy to shore up their independence. The US on the contrary is in the process of selling all its' asset including its people to the highest bidder. The policies of one President Bush 43 are hatching. Inappropriate remarks and actions (Putin's eyes and Iraq war) have revealed his total ineptitude to govern, his disdain for freedom and Democracy advanced the view of non democratic countries like Russia and China, that the can do whatever they want. His words of freedom, axis of evil and Democracy sound hollow, when the average foreign reader sees headlines of water boarding, Gitmo, spying on Americans etc, Why should any nation, Democratic or not, take any of his words serious, when his actions, reminds you that of a Texas land owner with his private army, who drives the thirsty into the desert?

[WilliePilgrim]

Carbon reduction? If you're concern is that smoke and soot containing toxic components (POPs and heavy metal compounds which are becoming more and more prevalent due to bioaccumulation) I'd see what you mean, but if your harping the concern of CO2 and AGW, you're a little late as the CO2 connection is rapidly becomming exposed as the all too human proclivity to find "cause and effect" in a simple straight-line fashion and to call attention to it with undue alarm, which we see abundantly and are now realizing that it was dangerously akin to a elaborate recreation of "chicken little". We do need to address pollution and habitat destruction which is caused by our short sighted planning and bottom line thinking and more than ever our burgeoning populations, but climatic shift due to CO2 should be trivial if it is to weigh-in at all.
We are at the dawn of an age where access to energy will be as inexpensive as additional memory is for one's computer. It will cost something but it won't be in short supply. Human ingenuity is quicly arriving at a variety of energy producing technologies and the race is on.

[oncethere]

This guy doesn't really care about the environment. He cares as much about the environment as Bush cares about the working-man when the tax cuts for the super-rich passed (Bush said, "This is a great day for the working man" in America), as much as these clowns who are giving speeches in the dark in the Congress care about the financial burden of the average American, as much as the Republicans care about the small family farm when the inheritance not-tax billed passed.

Bottom line. Republicans have to dress up their policies in morally acceptable terms, because they know they are basically furhering the interests of the greedy and super-rich in this country They are too ashamed just to admit that.

[Hirnlego]

Well the neocons got competition, but would this serve their interests? This might lead to further militarization, lots of money for the military and further excuses to secure countries like Iran, which undoubtedly the neocons have eyed for quote some time.

Cool heads need to prevail. Diplomacy is the key, we stay cool, and so should they.

[indy100]

Most Americans have believed way to much of what this Administration has said, and our own egotistical PR. Everyone else does not want to be us. They want some of what we have, but they want it on their terms. And thanks to our President any statement he makes about what other countries are doing wrong (human rights, military aggression, democracy) is pretty much laughed at by everyone.
We need a leader with intelligence, who can be respected. We need energy independence. We need to pull our heads out of the sand and out of the last century and move forward.

[cunuck]

"It is indeed sad when the illusions of an age melt away in the hot glare of a new era--although, of course, the great work of defending the United States, and its values, must continue in any era."

Russia is now a full authoritarian capitalist regime. China is rapidly moving in that direction.

Most Americans believed that these countries were moving towards the US.

The fact of the matter is, that as rapidly as these countries are embracing capitalism, the US is embracing authoritarianism within its own borders. Look no further than FISA, the Patriot Act, signing statements, defacto full neoconservative control of the Administration and foreign policy. To top things off, lobbyists from all the major corporations have gained control of the other two branches of government.

The politicians, the military, the police and the governmental protection agencies now serve the business elite - not the average working man. His job is now relegated to serving those above him.

[joanndarc]

Do you condone the genocide agains Osetians? You don't seem to be too concerned about this small nation.

[flochbihl]

Anyone surprised that Russians prefer Russian values and Chinese prefer Chinese values has been listening to too much Rush and Hannity.

[andhakari]

We are not doomed because Al Gore is trying to do the right thing in a world (over)populated with idiots determined to do the wrong thing. We are not doomed because Bill Clinton might have (but probably didn't) let China get its hands on 20 year old missle technology.
We are doomed because the US refused to evolve, to move past the successful material culture of the 20th century; and that it is now sucking itself into a world of totalitarian "safety" in weak imitation of Russia and China.
The world population will continue to expand until global war, disease, and climate change make an unpleasnt correction. Humanity, however, is pretty much done for already.

[boing007]

Dollar stores and pawn shops are popping up all over Montreal, Quebec and high end stores are
closing down. More condos for the well to do are being constructed even though there are fewer people who can afford to live in them. Housing for the less well off was put on hold for the past ten years.
.
In Canada, we pay twelve and a half cents on the dollar whether we are rich or poor. The poor pay the same price for bread, butter or milk than the rich even though they have 10 to 100 times less money to
spend.

Inequality is rapidly increasing, not diminishing. Many people now pay up to 70% of their monthly revenue on rent alone. Third World poverty is slowly taking over the Capitalist Western World.
So much for the trickle down theory.

CRTC= Crooks Run The Country.

[boing007]

EngineerBill

A few observations.
1. I didn't think I would live long enough to see Mr. Pinkerton and Naomi Klein agree on anything, but from reading this and Ms. Klein's recent post on China's police state 2.0, I find that they both agree that believing China would move toward democracy is naive or wishful thinking.
2. Russia is a petroleum exporting nation and it's wealth is fueled by Oil. As a result abandoning carbon neutrality would be plain stupid. Achieving carbon neutrality by reducing our dependence on fossil fuels would strengthen our status in the world at OPEC's and Russia's expense.
3. I think this shows what a ghastly failure this administration has been. We engaged in a war in Iraq. Compromised our freedom's, tortured people and we have an America that is vastly diminished on the world stage than it was almost eight years ago.

Hey, Engineer Bill. I was on your show back in the 50s in sunny Southern California. Run any red lights lately? I hope not.

Your comments reminded me of what happened to the U.S.A. during, and after, the Vietnam War.

[bacaja]

Letting one's reach exceed ones grasp appears to have consequences beyond
imagining,

[whatsthatsound]

It's not that the U.S. has overplayed its hand; the galling thing is that those running the country played a hand that should never have been played. The Texas/Saudi Coalition plan was to, country by country, build up a mega Oil Kingdom around the Arabian Peninsula. That way China and India would have had to deal with "us" (the U.S. providing the muscle and the oil shieks running the show) if they wanted to extend their growth well into this century.
True leaders would have done nothing of the kind. They would have got us moving to reduce our dependency on the oil shiekdoms, cut down our CO2 emissions, put U.S. manpower toward creating a new, alternativ­e-energy-f­riendly infrastructure. They would have put our "big stick" back inside our trousers, negotiated and traded with the rest of the world, and led by example. We could have put the "great" back in "great power", but selfish, greedy oil men, and their Neo-con cheerleaders, had other plans.

[boing007]

whatsthatsound

... everybody look what's goin' down.