Long before this week's presidential debate, the contours of this election had already been set. Despite the near hysterical and, at times, irritatingly silly reactions from pundits, right and left, the debate itself added very little that will impact the ultimate outcome of the contest.
It was like watching a Yankees/Red Sox series game. Both sides watched and cheered for their team. One side came away a bit more excited, the other a bit deflated, but no one changed the side they are on.
Putting aside the exaggerated reactions of media commentators "Romney triumphed" or "Obama blew it" the debate, itself, was quite boring. Like the impact of former President Bill Clinton's convention address that boosted Democrat's morale, Romney's performance might provide a "shot in the arm" to depressed Republicans, many of whom have been troubled by their candidate and his lackluster campaign. Mood changer, yes, but not a "game changer."
More important than the debate are several factors that have defined the political landscape in 2012.
First and foremost among these, are the basic demographics of the electorate. On the Democratic side, there is the dramatic increase in "minority voters". Two decades ago, this group comprised less than 20 percent of all voters. Today, they may be as high as 29 percent. Estimates are that 80 percent will vote for President Obama. Add to this group young voters, educated professional women, and, as my brother John notes, "the creative class" and you have the Democratic coalition -- not exactly the dependent "takers" of Mitt Romney's imagined 47 percent.
The core of the Republican coalition is increasingly white, middle aged and older, and male -- with many within this group over-lapping with "Born Again" Christians. It was from within this demographic that the Tea Party was born, and the impact they have had on this year's contest has been substantial. After flexing their muscles delivering a Republican takeover of Congress in 2010, the emboldened Tea Party helped shape the field of 2012 GOP presidential aspirants. More moderate Republicans were discouraged from entering the contest and the positions of those who did run bordered on the extreme in order not to alienate this aggressive hard line movement. Many of the statements made by Romney during the first presidential debate would have had him booed off the stage during the Republican primary.
Two other landscape definers in the 2012 election resulted from Supreme Court decisions. The "Citizens United" case opened the door for the obscene amounts of money -- much of it unreported -- that is allowing the so-called Super PACs and 501(c)(4) organizations to fill the airways with mostly negative ads. Likewise, the decision by the Court to uphold the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act has meant that the president's signature legislative accomplishment, though still a point of contention, is not the central issue being contested/defended in this year's debate.
Three additional events have played a significant role in defining this election. Latinos had been frustrated by the failure of the Administration to make a priority of immigration reform. The White House has argued that they lacked the support in Congress to pass the measure. But this past summer, President Obama unilaterally acted to provide temporary relief to the group of undocumented young people who had been brought into the U.S. illegally as children and who now find that through no fault of their own they are at risk of deportation. This reprieve, while initially criticized by Republicans, has impacted the election in two ways. It has energized the all-important Latino vote for Obama. And as the GOP has realized that it was about to be swamped by this growing bloc, they have muted their criticism -- with Mitt Romney now, for all intents and purposes, saying that he will uphold the President's action.
Much the same can be said of President Obama's decision to end the policy of "don't ask, don't tell," which discriminated against gays serving in the U.S. military and his late recognition of equal marriage rights for gays. It is not just that gays comprise a substantial part of the liberal electorate. It is also clear that respect for their equal rights has become a litmus test of sorts among young voters.
The final "landscape setter" for this year's contest was Mitt Romney's now-infamous "47 percent" video. For months Democrats had been working to define Romney as an elitist who was "out of touch with working class Americans." The recording of Romney's off the cuff remarks before an audience of well-heeled donors has been played over and over with Romney, in effect, defining himself as an "out of touch" elitist.
These are the major factors that set the stage for this election, not the debate. Though they may try, the "group think" feeding frenzy of the pundits will shape headlines for a night or two, but will not alter the landscape. Clinton's clear articulation of Obama's agenda may have inspired already supportive Obama voters, just as Romney's breathlessly desperate performance in the first debate proved a shot in the arm to his supporters. But I doubt that in the long term either of these substantially alter the size or composition of the either candidate's support base.
Follow James Zogby on Twitter: www.twitter.com/AAIUSA
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Where are those same pundits now?
Research and learn the significance of that number and its power to influence voters.
While this educational Arab scholar tells us of the overwhelmingly majority of American progressive class voters and we have total power to win, he totally forgets 2010, but with a slight honorable mention.
This election like last election will be totally in the hands of the independent voters rapidly raising majority, and all polls suggest Obama did himself harm after that first debate with them. I watch several news programs with mixed political voters, and the two things I observed should have progressives terrified. Many past Obama voters are not giving him a second chance. Many independent voters saw Romney commanding lead in business, taxes, and GULP health care Legislation.
CNN ripped into both candidates for alleged false statements, but Obama took the worse for wear because he spoke longer perhaps. Romney's 47% comment has progressive women and Blacks outraged, but oddly most all on these panels regardless of gender, said it wasn't an appropriate comment, nor was it a game changer.
What shocked me is how many said with the current entitlement numbers, etc. there is some truth behind that ideology .., the numbers, however, are impossible to determine, but they're unquestionably rising
Read this article word for word and boy was it spot on.
Repubs are under some kind of delusion that NOW Dems, Latinos, LGBTs, youth, women(who respect their reproductive rights), and especially the insulted 47% are going to go , "WOW, Romney looked great! Forget the issues that I embrace and let me vote for Mitt because he...looked...great!"
That is beyond ludicrous. If you were going to vote for Romney, you still are. If you were going to vote for Obama, you still are.
VP Biden will be well prepared to get at Ryan on all their flip flops & lies. Obama WILL do it in the next two. Mitt will either have to lie some more or tell the truth. Either way, Romney won't win. The electoral votes hasn't and in just less than a month NOT be in his favor.
I compare electoral maps from reputable places and Obama is still way over the 270 he needs. So if anyone needs a miracle, it would be Romney because he'll need to garner a lot of blue votes AFTER the other debates which is beyond unlikely. :)
we will all suffer.
The idea that after 6 years of Romney campaigning and 4 years of Obama as President there are still that many people who haven't decided is just mind boggling to me.
The Obama Administration did fail in some critical areas. HAMP's complications and paperwork were daunting, and the existence of the "present-value" analysis gave lenders a defensible way not to participate. A jobs stimulus should have been on the top of the Recovery list. The diplomatic "splitting the baby" regarding Palestine was just unacceptable. Recognizing Palestine's right to self-governance does jeopardize Israel. Oh, yeah...there was an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and the Gulf area is still suffering!
Health care reform was and is critical to our nation, and it is a remarkable shame that the President had to blow so much political capital to achieve it.
Yet...I remember trickle-down economics. Nothing trickles down. No amount of tax-breaks for the highest income earners will generate economic growth because the highest income earners are just too few in number. Employ a little common sense, people!
So, what to do? I say we stay the course. President Obama was handed an outright mess. Let's help him fix it.
Debates will not win this election. Votes will.