All too frequently these days, I am asked whether our past polling at Zogby International gave us any advance clues to the uprisings that have occurred in several Arab countries. The answer, of course, is no. We were surprised, as, I believe, were the demonstrators themselves by the outpouring of support and the rapid growth of their movements in Tunisia, Egypt and beyond.
But while our polling couldn't predict the uprisings, it nevertheless has been helpful in contributing to our understanding of the issues and concerns that define the political landscape in countries across the region.
In preparing for a talk on Bahrain earlier this week, I took a look at a survey of the "middle class" in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain we conducted a few years ago for McKinsey and Company. It was most instructive. What I found, back then, in that in-depth look into the economic status and outlook of Gulf Arabs were yellow flags flying all over our Bahrain data, warning that the country's citizens were distressed.
We found that not only are Bahrain's neighbors in Saudi Arabia and the UAE wealthier, in terms of macro-economic indicators, their citizens are also more satisfied with their current status and more optimistic about their prospects for the future. Ask the questions "are you better off than your parents were when they were your age" and between two-thirds to three-quarters of Saudis and Emiratis say "yes". On the other hand, only one-third of Bahrainis would agree that they are better off than their parent's generation. And when asked whether their children would be better off in the future, more than a half of Saudis and Emiratis agreed that they would be better off, while only 17% of Bahrainis are optimistic about the future of their offspring.
Hard data establishes that Bahrain's unemployment is significantly more than double that of its neighbors, but this is only part of the story. Most unemployed Saudis and Emiratis report having incomes (with some being fairly substantial coming from family support; others report income from rental properties or investments, etc). And most of those reporting themselves to be "unemployed" in those two countries come from households in which two or more individuals are employed. In Bahrain, on the other hand, most of the unemployed report having no sources of other income, most have no savings, and most come from households where only one person or no one at all is a wage-earner.
One doesn't have to make the leap to a crude type of economic determinism to conclude that this economic stress in Bahrain would have consequences. Bahrainis report being less satisfied with their jobs and the salaries they receive, and give lower grades to government services than their neighbors in the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
While this obvious economic distress in Bahrain is only one factor among others to which one can point in an effort to account for the turmoil in the country -- it is a revealing and important factor nonetheless.
The issues of political reform, concerns with discrimination, and government accountability have now been brought to the forefront in Bahrain and are the key agenda items for a much needed national dialogue. But as this broader political discussion advances (and one can only hope that it does), the economic needs of Bahrain's people should not be ignored. Meeting economic concerns will not substitute for political reform, but not addressing these economic matters will only make advancing on the political front all the harder.
In this area, Bahrain's neighbors have a key role to play. Earlier this year, Gulf Cooperation Council members made a commitment of long-term financial assistance to Bahrain. And now they have sent troops into the country deepening their commitment to their neighbor and fellow member. More must be done. Bahrain needs help. Just as other GCC countries realized that the long-term standoff that shut down a vital part of the country was not sustainable or constructive, so too they must realize that the government's crack-down that ended the standoff will also not solve the country's problems or even contribute to a resolution. An honest, open, and good faith dialogue on all key issues is the only way forward. As that occurs, the GCC can design a more comprehensive economic package for Bahrain -- as an incentive to move the reform process forward, as a sign of GCC solidarity with the Bahraini people and government, and as a way of demonstrating that Arab problems can be solved by Arabs.
Dr. James J. Zogby is the author of Arab Voices: What They Are Saying to Us, and Why it Matters (Palgrave Macmillan, October 2010) and the founder and president of the Arab American Institute (AAI), a Washington, D.C.-based organization which serves as the political and policy research arm of the Arab American community.
Michael Bronner: Civil War (Hold the Mustard...)
Robert L. Cavnar: The Adult Conversation About Nuclear Power Needs to Start
Shirin Sadeghi: The Fabrication of Bahrain's Shiite-Sunni Divide
Mark Juergensmeyer: Is Tahrir Square the End of Al Qaeda?
But the bigger issue is that the protesters refused any kind of dialogue...and they were taking about DEMOCRACY??!!! How can we fight for democracy when we use violence and we refuse to dialogue??
Bahrain has enough money, no need for foreign help if the wealth is distributed fairly.
Strange article! He makes out like Bahrain is a poor country and needs to be bailed out by its neighbours - and the invasion by them shows their commitment to do so! Bahrain has a higher GDP per capita ($40k) compared to Saudi Arabia ($24k). If then he finds such immiseration in Bahrain that really shows how the royals have enriched themselves. Dr Zogby makes no mention at all of the different relative fortunes of the majority Shias vs the minority Sunnis, which is at the heart of the protests. His comparisons with people's contentment in Saudi Arabia suffers similarly by ignoring the disadvantaged Shias in the East. And he ignores that while 70% of the Saudi population's incomes have risen (and therefore they are more content compared to a decade ago), they have not in any way kept up with the increase in overall per capita income - for which read price of crude. The al-Saud owners of Saudi Arabia (how much more blatant can you get!) just plunder oil and in the end what moves people is the sight of unearned incomes. Wikileaks bared it for them.
PS. This is NOT a sectarian-based conflict as some would have you believe. This the same crap that these dictators use for excuses to keep the status-quo and protect their privileges, i-e. sectarian, al-qaida, imperialism, west, iran, chaos, etc. It is never them!
PARIS — U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton warned Iran on Saturday to stop meddling in Bahrain and other Arab states in the Persian Gulf, but also called on the kingdom's leaders not to use force against anti-government protesters.
Read more: http://www.centredaily.com/2011/03/19/2593137/clinton-warns-iran-over-meddling.html#ixzz1H50VGuqD
Our 2 trusted allies have managed to really screw it up to a fare-thee-well - I can't wait for the next act.
I have been mentioning for some time, and I am just a granny, reading on the internet, that what people in the ME want and need is civil rights, voting rights, employment and economic opportunity. Bahrain is the latest of the nations where unrest, not erupts, but surfaces. The chances for such eruptions in Lebanon and Jordan are also very high. The unemployment rate in Iran is in the double digits and political unrest is high. Making predictions of what is about to happen, or could happen, does not require rocket science. Common sense is sufficient. Palestinians have a high unemployment rate. Abbas has said he is ready to go to Gaza, TODAY, but not for negotiations, but to form a government (CNN). Palestinians are demonstrating for an Unity Government and are being attacked for that. New problems in Gaza, plus attack on international news organizations and journalists, today, in Gaza (CNN). I can read it, so can anyone else. Anyone who has led a life, been responsible for a family, knows what it takes. Economics, Employment, Food, Civil Rights, a Vote, Housing and utilities.
In general, the GCC countries must work harder on diversifying their economy away from oil industry.