Lebanon and its friends around the world are on edge waiting for indictments to be issued related to the assassination of Prime Minister Rafiq al Hariri. The investigators working on this case are apparently nearing the completion of their inquiry and are preparing to submit their findings to the international tribunal -- possibly within a matter of days. Based on what are claimed to be "leaks", there have been suggestions that the indictments will charge members of Hezbollah in the crime. In response, there has been a flurry of diplomatic activity in an effort to calm tensions, while Hezbollah, for its part, has paralyzed the work of the government and issued vague, and not so vague, threats saying that they will not allow any of their cadres to be charged. This has roiled the country with many fearing a return to civil strife or worse.
Before any more threats are issued, fingernails are bitten, or anti-anxiety pills are swallowed, let us consider a few points.
First, no one knows what the investigators may have found. We do not know whom they will indict or what evidence they will present to back up their findings. All that is being discussed right now are rumors, from a variety of questionable sources, based on information claiming to come from "leaks".
Given this, it is not the tribunal but the campaign to discredit the work of the investigators that must be questioned. How and why, we must ask, is there such an intense effort to denounce what we still don't know? Since no one has yet been indicted, and the evidence is still unrevealed, mobilizing a campaign against the tribunal is, at best, premature, and, at worst, risks raising suspicions about the motives of the campaigners, themselves.
It is important to also remember that indictments, when they are issued, are just that, indictments -- not judgments or verdicts. The sealed work of the investigators will go to a pre-trial judge who will then take between six to eight weeks to review the findings and then make a determination as to whether or not they create sufficient grounds to merit prosecution. Only if the judge agrees to proceed will arrest warrants be issued. Note that it is only at this point that the names of those to be indicted may become official and public.
What should then follow is a trial at which time the prosecution will reveal the evidence on which the indictments have been based, and the indicted individuals will be able to contest all this -- either by challenging the prosecution's evidence or presenting evidence of their own in an effort to prove their innocence.
This is the process that should be followed. It is open, transparent and fair, providing justice for the society at large and guaranteeing the rights of the accused to confront and challenge in open court the charges against them.
Fearing the worst, there are those in Lebanon who suggest that the country cannot afford to allow the work of the tribunal to proceed. They say that Lebanon must make a choice between unity and justice. This, I believe, is a false choice, since Lebanon must have both if it is to survive as a nation and flourish as a democracy. With the memory of Lebanon's long war still too fresh to be forgotten, and with too many Lebanese leaders having been assassinated in just the past few decades, the threat of violence or bullying cannot be allowed to define the way the country resolves its disagreements. If Lebanon is to remain whole and prosper, it must put away threats and agree to resolve differences in public debate, through the ballot box, or in open court.
Our polling clearly establishes that most Lebanese, across factional and sectarian lines, agree. They seek national unity and reconciliation, and they demand justice for the killing of Rafiq al Hariri, those who lost their lives with him, and those who were murdered in the years that followed. The people are right.
The slogan "unity or justice" should be rejected as establishing a false dichotomy. Lebanon needs both.
Dr. James J. Zogby is the author of Arab Voices: What They Are Saying to Us, and Why it Matters (Palgrave Macmillan, October 2010) and the founder and president of the Arab American Institute (AAI), a Washington, D.C.-based organization which serves as the political and policy research arm of the Arab American community.
James Zogby: Lebanon: Finding Consensus without the Factions
Or maybe his gullibility is only limited to matters involving Israel.
A severely flawed investigation, and a heavily politicised trial (and to pretend that the trial will not be as heavily politicised as the investigation has been is ludicrous) may indeed actually convict the responsible parties, but to consider that 'justice' is like calling someone who flukes a hit on the bullseye with his first shot a marksman.
How many times I have heard how Mossad will get Nasrallah. If something happens to him and people accuse the Mossad you will all scream out Israels innocence.
Israel controls the US.
Israel controls the sharks in the Red Sea.
Israel controls tsunamis in the Pacific.
Is there anything that Israel does not control?
He's not aware of the fact that , during the last five years , the UNIIIC has gone through three different commissioners ,and many contradicting reports .He does not know that, the UNIIIC acted like Santa clause in the way it through accusations. Accusations against Syria, and against the heads of the Lebanese security establishments, who ended up in jail with no charges against them for four years. None of these seem to alert Mr. Zobey to any questions regarding the credibility of this investigation .Accusations, mostly unsubstantiated, which affected the whole political landscape for four years.
Mr Zogby does not realize that this is the land of the conspiracy theory. I won’t mention the wikileaks, which he ignores
In a democracy, Mr. Zogby's scenario is the proper one to follow in a criminal case, given that the investigation’s integrity is intact.
Most Lebanese, fairly or not, believe that this investigation has lost its credibility long before it reached any conclusions.
If this tribunal allowed four officers to be jailed with no charges against them,If this tribunal accuses Syria for four years of committing a crime with no evidence; something is wrong.When this tribunal bows to pressure from members of the UN security council, some thing is wrong with its credibility.
This tribunal has wasted every opportunity to salvage its credibility. Mr. Zogby dismisses all published information about the case, as leaks.
Perhaps discredited witnesses, false accusations, dead-end investigations and three separate, failed prosecutors in 5 years mean not a whit to you. Perhaps the convenience and timing of the "leaks" also don't suggest interference or wrongdoing. Perhaps the continued jailing of four Lebanese generals for four years with no evidence whatsoever at the behest of the "international" investigator's does not signal "injustice" for you.
I am still reeling from the way you completely left out any and all meaningful information in your blog, as though you would prefer readers to remain ignorant of the blatant machinations of this Tribunal.
I do not know your intent, but I would point you to the WikiLeaks Cable from 2008 where Bellemare literally prostrates himself for the US ambassador in Beirut, begging for "direction" on which "Syrians" to pursue.
No, we do not know the actual nature of the indictments, but I suspect that they will not surprise anyone. Once this is out, I predict that Lebanon will not fall apart at all, but that one side will take the reins very quickly to prevent a deterioration of the situation - and then Israel will attack. Thank you for prepping the ground for that, James.
Al-Hariri has been dead for nearly six years now, six years of investigation delayed and sidetracked by threats and intimidation from Hezbollah and their controllers and financers in Damascus and Tehran.
The truth of the matter, as revealed by Wikileaks, is that it is common knowledge in the Middle East that Iran and her little sidekick Syria are using groups like Hezbollah to promote their own selfish national agendas under the cover of standing up to Israel.
The last thing the Mullahs and the hereditary dictator want is the truth to be revealed in a court of law that they, rather than Israel, are the true obstacles to a lasting peace as peace would lead to awkward questions of their legitimacy and competence being raised by their long suffering people.
Questions they will be unable to answer.
Evidence based on Cellular records
Telephone company infiltrated at highest levels= Evidence compromised
Case closed. No matter who did it
Even if Israel didnt commit the assassination, they tampered with the evidence. No where else in the world would evidence that had been tampered with be presentable as evidence.
They had their hands in the phone company and phone records for a reason. They never do something without a reason. The technicians/spies they employed had the highest access possible. Databases could have been easily manipulated. Just as a country was thought to be behind stuxnet which was developed to attack a specific nation and had many people and resources behind it, Israel is known to have highly developed Cyber divisions within the IDF.
Israel uses wiretapping equipment it sold to Turkey on Turkish citizens'
Turkish newspaper: IDF using equipment sold to Turkey in 2007 to listen in on Turkish citizens, including political activists, members of opposition parties and academics.
A claim that Israel is using wiretapping equipment it sold Ankara to listen in on Turkish citizens is making headlines in that country.
According to the pro-government newspaper Taraf, the Turkish army's deputy chief of staff, Aslan Guner, purchased sophisticated wiretapping equipment in Israel in 2007 to aid Turkey in fighting the Kurdish PKK, which is considered a terror group by Turkey.
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/israel-uses-wiretapping-equipment-it-sold-to-turkey-on-turkish-citizens-1.311626