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James Zogby

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Strategic Thinking Needed to Juggle Israeli-Palestinian Equation

Posted: 07/09/11 11:17 AM ET

On the very day that the New York Times reported that the Israeli military had demolished the homes of Palestinians in the Jordan Valley in order to clear the area to consolidate Israeli control, that very same military was being rebuffed in its efforts to remove an illegal Jewish settler outpost in that very same occupied West Bank. There were also reports of violent settlers running amok in the West Bank committing violence against Palestinians and Israeli military personnel, and other news accounts of thousands of extremist rabbis demonstrating outside of Israel's Supreme Court in opposition to government efforts to silence one of their leaders. He had been arrested for advocating violence against Palestinians (maintaining, for example, that it was acceptable to kill innocent Palestinian children before they grew to adulthood and became a real threat to Jews). These incidents combined, demonstrate, in a nutshell, why I have lost confidence in the so-called "peace process" and current U.S. peacemaking efforts.

While Israel continues to oppress and humiliate Palestinians, and while extremist Israeli settlers continue to run roughshod over both Palestinians and the Israeli military, it just seems downright short-sighted and silly for the U.S. to have nothing more interesting to offer than their lame mantra that "parties need to return to the negotiating table." And yet that is about all they have to offer at this point -- with results no more promising now than they have been for the past few decades.

As it currently stands, the Israeli-Palestinian problem is too big and too deep to be solved by pretending that simple negotiations can fix things. Neither side is in a position to negotiate, and the U.S. team doesn't appear to have a creative thought that can help change this situation.

Israeli politics have moved decidedly to the right. With a half million settlers in the West Bank (many of them armed to the teeth and ideologically committed to stay on "their land" no matter what deal their government might sign with the Palestinians) the Israeli government not only has no interest in finding a solution that would be fair to the Palestinians, I'm not convinced that they could or would muster up the resolve to convince their hard-line public to accept even an unfair settlement with the Palestinians.

The Israelis have become used to having their way with the Palestinians and know that no one, including their patron and protector, the U.S., will do anything to stop them. For their part, the Palestinians have no real leverage to stop Israeli behaviors and they are, therefore, in no position to negotiate with their dominant occupier and oppressor. The Palestinian leadership is fragmented, and their body politic is divided. Gaza is isolated and under a blockade, while the West Bank is also under complete Israeli control and has become dependent on the largess of international donors.

Just a few weeks ago we had a glimmer of hope that the Palestinians were ready to take steps to alter this stagnant situation. The major Palestinian factions were reconciling and their leadership was ready to directly challenge Israel and the United States by demanding that the UN vote on Palestinian Statehood. But with the U.S. and Israel opposed to Palestinian unity and a United Nations vote, pushing the Palestinians to stop both efforts, and the Palestinian factions unable to agree even on a temporary government, hopes have dimmed.

It is not that a UN vote, by itself, would create a state, or that Palestinian unity would, by itself, bring peace. Neither are silver bullets. Healing the fractured Palestinian polity is quite simply a necessity so that the Palestinian Authority can be seen to represent its entire constituency. The push for a UN vote, on the other hand, is an important effort by the Palestinians to buttress their position vis-a-vis the Israelis with leverage from the international community (much in the same way that the Israelis buttress theirs with votes from the U.S. Congress).

What made both of these two Palestinian initiatives more desirable than the lame U.S. efforts to restart talks is that the Palestinian steps were attempts at juggling the equation, while simply restarting talks does nothing but bring together the parties, as they are, to talk about a situation the Israelis don't really want to change and the Palestinians are powerless to change.

If there is to be Israeli-Palestinian peace, the current dynamics at work in Israeli and Palestinian societies and in the Israeli-Palestinian relationship must be changed. That will require strategic thinking and a willingness to shake thing up, especially in Israel. Both Israel's sense of entitlement and its ability to operate with impunity must be ended. And the Palestinians must feel supported, empowered and responsible for their own destiny.

Palestinian unity, the political boost that would come from a strong UN vote, and an expanded mass non-violent resistance effort in the occupied territories, just might help to do the trick. It would give the Palestinians a much needed shot in the arm and it would force the Israelis to debate and rethink their policies and the costs associated with their behaviors. On the other hand, listening to the U.S. and backing away from reconciliation, and dropping the UN vote (in much the same way the PA listened to the U.S. and initially dropped the UN human rights report on the Gaza War) would be devastating to the Palestinian leadership, would only serve to further embolden Israeli hardliners, and would, in the end, make peace even more remote than it is today.

Dr. James J. Zogby is the author of  Arab Voices: What They Are Saying to Us, and Why it Matters (Palgrave Macmillan, October 2010) and the founder and president of the Arab American Institute (AAI), a Washington, D.C.-based organization which serves as the political and policy research arm of the Arab American community.

 

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10:08 AM on 07/13/2011
In-depth thinking on the part of the U. S. is what is really needed. Without it, there will never be any real re-thinkinig in Israel about the need to do anything except just stand pat in the mire of their right wing extremist thinking.
10:19 AM on 07/12/2011
I've said all along that the Israeli's don't want a peace accord. If that happens they would have to stop building and Israel could never get any larger. Right-wing Israeli's want all the west bank, all the way to the Jordan river....biblical Israel....historical Israel, and they want all the Palestinians to go any where but the west bank.

The right-wing in Israel is just like the right-wing in the U.S.....hate-filled.

Until moderate voice appear....it is what it is.
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Rianna
10:13 AM on 07/12/2011
You make good points as usual Mr. Zogby. The US is now a toothless tiger when it comes to calling the shots and getting their dear protege, Israel, to abide by the rules. Last time they tried to cajole and bribe Israel with the hottest fighter jets, to get to that evasive peace table, they turned it all down, because they boldly refused to cooperate and stop stealing those Palestinians lands. It seems the US cannot get an iota of cooperation after all that gazillions in aid they have generously been giving Israel. Ungrateful, some would say. As long as they can keep stealing land, water, and sea, why should they give it all up for peace, their people badly need?
10:14 AM on 07/13/2011
And as long as they have "favored nation" status for selling things in the U. S., and, as long as American Jewish owned corporations and individuals can do a U. S. tax write-off on all of their contributions to anything in Israel, and as long as they are able to manipulate the U. S. Congress to maintain these special perks of the "special relationship," this is what we, the vast majority of Americans, are stuck with, it seems.
08:25 AM on 07/12/2011
Strategic thinking to me should mean that people like Tony Blair be removed from the process.
09:28 AM on 07/12/2011
x2
06:22 PM on 07/11/2011
I´ve heard that there are going to be "mutually agreed swaps" of territory. Now, Israel has built about 50(?) towns on occupied territory, but I have yet to hear which 50 Israeli towns they are planning to swap for them in a final settlement.
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BeLogical1234
02:52 PM on 07/11/2011
Dr. Zogby, how can you possibly cite and complain of a few select Israeli lunatics who advocate violence while ignoring the fact that an overwhelmingly greater number of Palestinians advocate the same, if not worse, against Israelis. It's hypocritical to say the least.

You are hardly one to be deeming someone or something "short-sighted." Pot meet kettle.
04:48 PM on 07/11/2011
Exactly, Israel arrests extremists who promote violence against children and the Palestinians name plazas after them. If an Israeli shot a missile aimed at a clearly marked school bus, there would be a national scandal. Hamas shot a missile at an Israeli school bus and they dance around and hand out candies to celebrate.

There is no equivalence, but this is your standard Zogby missive; lots of complaining about Israel but not one word on what the Palestinians should do to promote peace.
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NTT
Fighting rants with facts
02:16 PM on 07/11/2011
So let's review the FACTS:
- On one side -- Israel -- an extremist cleric is arrested for expressing opinions that may incite to violence against Arab civilians;
- On the other side -- the Arab one -- violence is advocated permanently; half of the Palestinian Arab population is "led" by a regime (Hamas) whose constitutional document calls for killing the Jews, whoever they are.

Now, the blogger is trying to "manipulate" these facts to make it "look like" the obstacle to peace is... Israeli extremism. Yeah, right! Sorry, sir. The FACTS disprove your thesis -- and no amount of intellectual contorsionism will change THAT.
01:08 PM on 07/11/2011
It appears that strategic thinking has been employed by the Palestinians for years now, and it has not yielded one thing, nor has it offered one solution. The latest strategic thinking was for Abbas to dictate to the Quartet, the U.S. and the world, that he was going to duhclare something in September. before the UN. He is already crawling back from that.

A strategy that might work would be to recognize the facts on the ground and acknowledge The Jewish State Israel, making real PEACE and stopping hostilities. Plain and simple. The PLO and Hamas would have to change their hearts and their charters.

An additional strategy would be to ensure that Palestinians in Lebanon, Syria, in Gaza and under the PLO finally get civil rights, such as voting rights, the right to own property and to exercise their professions. Just simple little things, elementary really, you know.

But, before declaring a Stateand having a functioning one, Palestinians have quite a bit of internal work to do, such as getting along, building an economy, making money to pay salaries, and so forth.
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Sonic hedgehog
A true word needs no oath
01:51 PM on 07/11/2011
Why do they have to acknowledge The "Jewish" State? They already recognize Israel. That demand is a delaying game by the right wing governments of Israel so that they can build more settlements in the lands that belong to the State of Palestine.

Palestine's internal issues are irrelevant to the peace deal.
03:50 PM on 07/11/2011
What "State of Palestine"? There has never been one. The Arab nations keep them bottled up in permanent "refugee'' camps
03:58 AM on 07/11/2011
Dr. Zogby cites (correctly) some of the racism that runs throughout sectors of Israeli society, particulary among some settlers....yet, for some reason, ignores the racism against Jews to be found in sectors of Palestinians and Arab society, right down to the textbooks in Palestinian schools...even after the Oslo Accords were signed. I agree that the Occupation has been bad for all sides and needs to end soon, with Palestinians free to create a peaceful, viable state for themselves in the West Bank and Gaza, with minor territorials exchanges...but it will take changes in attitude, reason and compassion on ALL sides if it is to work. Otherwise, we are all of us, Arab and Jew, doomed.
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Sam Bark
It's a MAD world after all...
03:55 AM on 07/11/2011
Reading this article one may assume that Israel is the one creating the chaos in the Mideast, causing the local Arabs’ misery, and constantly mangling the Palis effort to unite or even better to have a State….. Why Israel has to give them what they want! And what do they really want?
These so called Palestinian people, are plain Arabs like their brethren in the surrounding countries, they rejected the 1947 UN partition plan, but now are eager to have the UN reinstate it….
Yet, after imposing on Israel 8 vicious wars and expelling over 900,000 Jews from the surrounding Arab countries they have the audacity to demand a ‘right of return’, what about the Jewish refugees?
They are the ones refusing to establish a state on the areas they today claiming for one, yet they had full control of these areas during 1947 to 1967 period.
Somehow it is always Israel’s or someone else fault! Or is it?
It is time for the Palestinians and their leaders to acknowledge their mistakes and take responsibility for their actions and be willing to compromise, rather keep rejecting every offer, starting in 1947, later in1993, 2000, 2001, 2008….
My humble opinion is that all these posturing are nothing more than a ruse to turn back the clock 64 years in order to be in a better position to annihilate Israel as a Jewish state, and no matter what Israel offers it will never satisfy them……
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Trollstein
Once you go Schwartz, you never go back baby
12:40 AM on 07/11/2011
The relatively recent ruling by the World Court (non-binding as it is) on Serbia/Kosovo is nonetheless mighty interesting--as it may relate to the West Bank Jewish neighborhoods. For those who are either unfamiliar (or in an all too familiar hypnotic trance) it took the World Court over 60 years of its existence to issue any opinion on the legality of local populations declaring their national independence. Sadly for the "Arab cause" this ruling reflects negatively on their historical position on Israeli nationhood, as well as the Arab prospects for reclaiming what territorial "sovereignty" they may feel belongs to them on the WB.
Using the same legal analysis, the Jews of the WB could in viable theory, declare a new nation, separate from Israel. I know this may seem far-fetched but given that these people generally believe that God wants (and expects) them to live there, the possibility becomes acutely more plausible.
But the article lamented the lack of "creative thoughts", so here's one: The world should INSIST that those millions of Palestinian-Arabs now living nationless in a variety of Arab "host" countries be granted citizenship in the countries where they were BORN. Until this occurs, there will probably be no end to the hostilities.
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Sam Bark
It's a MAD world after all...
03:19 AM on 07/11/2011
trollstein -- F&F
10:32 AM on 07/11/2011
Okay...I have to agree with you on this one. Such a creative move (granting citizenship to Palestinian Arabs living in Arab 'host nations) would go a long way toward ameliorating the decades of bitter frustration and hostility, granting those people opportunities to pursue viable futures. Good idea.
09:19 PM on 07/10/2011
I think the Palestinians should try to get recognition through the UN and if that fails because of the American Veto then they should take the Two State Solution of the table and demand equal treatment as citizens of Israel.
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Trollstein
Once you go Schwartz, you never go back baby
12:59 AM on 07/11/2011
The United Nations can not create any new nation or delete any existing one. All a General Assembly Resolution could possibly do would be to invoke a non-binding referendum.
As far as the Security Council: Their legal standing is a bit more convoluted. All UN member nations agree to abide by UNSC rulings but even that has its limits. For good example, a member nation would NOT be expected to abide by any UNSC resolution calling for its own disolvation. Legally, the UNSC's power is limited to the omnibus authority contained within the Charter of the United Nations. Such charter does not provide for the arbitrary creation of any new nations or the removal of any existing ones. Anyone who thinks it does, please provide the citation. Any power(s) not specifically delineated therein does not exist. Their charter is not like the USA constitution in that our rights stem from everything being legal--unless specified otherwise. A treaty organization like the UN MUST entirely codify its rights and authority. Unwritten laws do not exist.
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Sam Bark
It's a MAD world after all...
03:18 AM on 07/11/2011
kampungH – you utterly delusional.....get real, from the start the local Arabs refused the UN partition plan, so now after they lost all wars they want to turn back the clock 64 years and request the UN to reinstate the decision they so valiantly rejected in 1947......
02:28 AM on 07/15/2011
You seem confused, they refused the UN Partition Plan in 47. So opting for a one state solution is in fact consistent with their original rejection of partition.
04:10 PM on 07/09/2011
This is an excellent article with a lot of common sense observations.

"Palestinian unity, the political boost that would come from a strong UN vote, and an expanded mass non-violent resistance effort in the occupied territories, just might help to do the trick."

Completely agree. Negotiations with the U.S. as the mediator haven't worked for decades - it's time to consider trying something a little different.
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Relpo Miraculous
Psychobiological Anthropology
05:48 PM on 07/09/2011
The Palestinians need to try something different alright. But they don't have the brains or the will to figure out what will work, just the same old same old:

11:44pm: 3 rockets fired from Gaza at Israel. 2 explode near Ashkelon beach and one at Gaza.
http://qassamcount.com/1623

Say the 6 magic words and your pain will end.
Do you know what those words are?
03:31 PM on 07/10/2011
'Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank'?
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Vlady
Better Late
09:31 PM on 07/09/2011
>>Negotiatio­ns with the U.S. as the mediator haven't worked for decades - it's time to consider

...the U.S.A as the mediator
02:56 PM on 07/10/2011
And least of all Israel needs is the so- called "mediators" either from the USA or Europe!
02:59 PM on 07/10/2011
"...the U.S.A as the mediator"

So Israel and Eric Cantor would have us believe :)
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dim
one in a can
02:49 PM on 07/09/2011
Lame mantra? What would you prefer? That parties return to the trenches?

It's pretty clear what Israel is willing to bring to the negotiating table. What are the Arabs willing to offer in return? It's got to be fairly substantial to make up for Israel exposing itself to rocketry from everywhere. How can Arabs persuade Israel to accept a serious existential risk? We all saw what happened with the Gaza experiment. What would be different this time?
03:06 PM on 07/10/2011
"It's pretty clear what Israel is willing to bring to the negotiatin­g table. What are the Arabs willing to offer in return?"

Actually, you have it reversed. You should follow the news more closely. Netanyahu not only took offense to Obama's suggestion that the pre-1967 lands with swaps be used as the basis for negotiations, he refuses to put into words what borders he wants or envisions or even desires. The Palestinians have been consistent for decades about what they want and are willing to offer, and both they and the Arab states in the API have let it be known what they have to offer and what they desire in return. Israel talks a lot about what they want but Netanyahu only grudgingly conceded two years ago that the Palestinians should ideally have a state of their own. two years ago. Israel wants a nice, peaceful, permanent occupation and makes no bones about it. So there's really no excuse for you not knowing that that is the case.
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dim
one in a can
05:17 PM on 07/10/2011
There is really no excuse for misrepresenting your own opinion about what Israel wants as some sort of fact that we are supposed to know. And you still haven't said what the ever consistent Arabs have to offer.
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FearlessFreep
I'm actually a radical leftist
11:53 PM on 07/10/2011
"It's pretty clear what Israel is willing to bring to the negotiatin g table." Precious little.
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dim
one in a can
12:28 AM on 07/11/2011
That's not how the Jews thought of the precious little offered to them by the initial partition.
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Relpo Miraculous
Psychobiological Anthropology
02:46 PM on 07/09/2011
Strategic thinking is only needed because Arabs will not say those 6 little words. I don't even think you will say them. The strategy then is to get what you want by deception, and protest, and violence, rather then by admission of a fault. Admission of the fault is too humiliating.

What is the fault?

Cultural racism.