Nine months into the "Arab Spring," we surveyed public opinion in seven Arab countries and Iran, asking over 6,000 respondents about their primary political concerns and their degree of satisfaction with the pace of change taking place in their countries. What we found was that an "Arab Spring" effect had occurred, with reform and rights issues now being perceived as political priorities in most countries. The polls were conducted by Zogby Research Services and jzanalytics in Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iran. They had a margin of error of between ±3.1 percent (in Egypt) to ±4.5 percent (in Lebanon).
The results varied from country to country, providing an important look into the unique set of concerns confronting each. We have conducted similar surveys every other year since 2001, and the differences that could be discerned between the 2011 poll and those that preceded it were noteworthy.
In 2009, for example, in most countries the "bread and butter" issues of: "expanding employment opportunities," "improving the health care system," and "improving the educational system," ranked among the top four concerns of most respondents. Their rank order would vary from country to country, but these were the basic priorities of a majority of Arabs. Also in the mix of top concerns would be issues of particular concern to the country in question. "Ending corruption and nepotism," for example, was a major issue in Egypt; while in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE "resolving the Israeli/ Palestinian conflict" scored high. More political concerns, involving personal rights, reform, and democracy, almost never made it into the top tier of priority concerns.
What is striking, however, in this most recent poll was the "Arab Spring" effect that is at work across the Middle East and North Africa. "Expanding employment" is still the number one concern in every Arab country, with the exception of the UAE. But there are now other issues that are looming large across the political landscape. "Ending corruption and nepotism" is now a major concern in four of the seven Arab countries. And in most countries, issues like "political reform," "advancing democracy" and "protecting personal and civil rights" have broken into the top tier of concerns in almost every country.
It may be interesting to note that the one country where virtually no change occurred was in Egypt, where the top four issues of 2009 (employment, education, health care and corruption) remain the top four concerns of 2011, albeit in a slightly different order. It appears that the Egyptian revolt had less to do with politics and more to do with people's basic needs. Most Egyptians want a non-corrupt government that could provide for the basic needs of life (a job, health care and education). It is in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and UAE, that the political issues of "reform" and "rights" broke through.
Meanwhile, it is important to note that the results in Iran show us a political "basket case." With the exception of employment, which is the number one issue in that country, the rest of the top tier priority concerns are all democracy-related concerns.
It is also worth noting that the only countries where advancing women's rights are a prominent concern are in Tunisia and the UAE. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a top concern in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. And while combating terrorism and extremism is a significant concern in five of the seven Arab countries, it is dead last in Iran.
How do Arabs and Iranians judge the performance of their governments? Not surprisingly, the highest satisfaction rates come in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This has historically been the case, and despite the new sets of issues being raised it appears that nothing has diminished the sense in both of these Gulf countries that things are on the "right track." More worrisome are the low satisfaction levels in Lebanon and Iraq, and Iran, where significant majorities are dissatisfied with the pace of change and see their countries on the "wrong track."
While the fundamentals remain the same -- people will want jobs, the ability to raise and provide for their families, be educated and have the chance to advance, and receive health care when they need it -- there can be no doubt that the "Arab Spring" has introduced a new vocabulary and new concerns into the Arab political discourse. How governments respond to these new concerns in the years to come will be important to watch.
Dr. James J. Zogby is the author of "Arab Voices: What They Are Saying to Us, and Why it Matters" (Palgrave Macmillan, October 2010) and the founder and president of the Arab American Institute (AAI), a Washington, D.C.-based organization which serves as the political and policy research arm of the Arab American-community.
Follow James Zogby on Twitter: www.twitter.com/AAIUSA
http://www.jewishfederations.org/page.aspx?id=50080
Jewish Federations of North America
European Poll: Israel Biggest Threat To World Peace
EXCERPT:
"Results of a new poll commissioned by the European Commission show that Israel is believed by Europeans in 15 countries to be the greatest threat to world peace, greater than North Korea, Iran or Afghanistan.
"While the European Commission will release the full results of the poll on Monday, the International Herald Tribune reported that the 7,500 people polled living in the European Union (500 in each of the 15 E.U. member states) were presented with a list of 15 countries and asked if these countries present a threat to world peace. Shockingly, Israel was rated first."
Now that the Palestine/Israel conflict is not at the top of anyone's list...do you think it is time for the Palestinians to finally sit down and negotiate a real peace - without needing to worry that the Arab League will tell them "no"?
I also find it interesting that the only three countries that seem to place the Palestinians high on your list (and I'd love to see the questionnaire) are also countries that either kicked out Palestinians in large numbers or Killed them.
Again it would seem now would be the time for someone to encourage the Palestinians - specifically M. Abbas that now is the time for peace - and now is the time to the peace talks on with no preconditions.
Your second paragraph gives FACTS which Jordan, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon would truly not wish to acknowledge. Yet, your comments are fact. The first refusal was 1947-48 then there were various crackdown efforts from then until the 1990's. Too bad the Palestinians continue to embrace these Nations who simply do not want them. Apparently, they are addicted to welfare subsidies from these Nations rather than setting up their own and going to work as the Israelis have done to make Israel/Canaan an example of the benefits of Capitalism.
Your presumption to knowledge about what I have experienced in life is almost as repugnant as your maudlin self pity and victimhood.
America has enemies in the Muslim world, and they are all Islamists of some kind or other. The proponents of Islamism are at war with the proponents of liberal democracy.
But by all means, join them if you wish. Fly the al Qaeda flag as your Libyan brothers are doing; celebrate the great Islamist victory of 9/11/01 as your Palestinian brothers and others did. Now that you have no dictator, you are finally free to show your true colors, your understanding of the true meaning of Islam in Tunisia.
All actions have consequences and joining the enemies of liberal democracy certainly will. Be absolutely certain that really is what you want.
Don’t corruption and nepotism" and "democracy" count as one? Or if you prefer, two sides of the same currently counterfeit coin?
"the fundamentals remain the same"
First, existence. Second, improvement. Concentrate on what’s important, for the rest will take care of itself.
How else Robert to countries come into being?
the constant threat of war by itself is psycologically disturbing.
I mean the word Spring is so wonderfully heart felt. Let us not say anything like death and
destruction, people may not like the images that formulate in their minds.
Media manipilation by Master manipulators.
F&F
Just sayin ...
China a democracy? WTH? Makes less sense than the Star Wars prequels!
I can't say much about Tunisia or UAE, but from what I've seen, the best place for democracy to take root is in Iran. If the people can ever lose their Supreme-Leader, that might be all it would take.
The best thing they have going for them is what looks like a basic equality between men & women.
Egypt & Libya could jump that hurdle, but it looks like they are too splintered and won't know who to vote for- and before a democracy can take hold, a strongman is likely to jump to the top, just like before.
The rest of the middle east countries where only men go out in public, and women stay home inside will most likely devolve into some form of warlordism/tribalism
When you get all male publics, they always want to break into pack run by dominant alpha males,
Iraq is already on it's way to a strongman government, which is probably inevitable due to the overwhelming majority Shiite population. If the population was split in roughly even thirds, then they could cooperate and get along, but not when one of the arab groups has greater number than the rest of them combined.
if by democracy you mean a western-style liberal democracy - then forget it because even without the SL the religious-conservative forces will prevent iran from being a canada or sweden.
You are right that there are a lot of conservatives in Iran, their Pres IS popular
BUT, I was really impressed with the GREENS
My guess is that over time, as the urban youth replaced the elderly rural conservatives,
they might end up with a robust democracy
My guess is that it has it's roots in the fact that they had a socially liberal society under the SHAH, and then, even the the current democracy has wetted their desire for the real thing.
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During my initial post I forgot to mention the Syrians, and their bravery in trying to oust their dictator. I don't know enough about them and their aspirations to predict as to how their aspirations to pick leaders through electoins will play out.