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James Zogby

James Zogby

Posted: October 16, 2010 11:56 AM

Unhelpful Provocations

What's Your Reaction:

In "Arab Voices" I describe Lebanon as "a tinderbox, with too many groups still playing with matches". Iranian President Ahmadinejad's visit to that dear but fragile country has to be seen in that context.

Instead of helping Lebanon and its fractured polity come together, he worked to deepen their deep divisions. Instead of recognizing the country's vulnerability and the dangers of renewed conflict with Israel, he egged them on. And instead of acknowledging Lebanon's unique character, he behaved as if the country were an extension of his own.

His bluster and triumphalism and his verbal flights of fancy may have created momentary euphoria in his alienated and disenfranchised audiences, but celebrations and speechifying do not reflect reality nor do they provide a pathway to needed change. As such, his visit and his behavior amounted to nothing more than a dangerous provocation.

I maintain what I said back in 2006 when too many Arabs across the political spectrum were celebrating Hezbollah's "victory" -- can we be so desperate that losing 1,400 lives and incurring billions of dollars of damage and the destruction of so much of the country's infrastructure can still be called a victory? What happened in 2006 was a tragedy and a disaster, pure and simple. It was a wasted and foolish war which no one won -- and one in which Lebanon and its people paid too great a price.

The behavior of the Iranian President reminds me of what Dr. Ron Walters used to say about Rev. Louis Farrakhan, the leader of the Nation of Islam. Ron, who passed away last month, was an African American political scientist and one of the smartest analysts with whom I've had the honor to work. In 1984, as Jesse Jackson was running for President, seeking to empower African Americans under the banner "our time has come," Farrakhan jumped into the mix. He used the occasion to regularly issue forth outrageous comments creating a continuous stream of disruptions and provocations. Knowing that the spotlight would always be on him (the loudest and most extreme voice always draws the most attention) and that he could always goad opponents into attacking him, Farrakhan never wasted an opportunity to take center stage and create a distraction.

One day Ron sat with a group of us to analyze what was taking place. He understood the game that was afoot. Farrakhan needed to be the story and knew that creating outrage was the way to do it. Did his antics advance the African American agenda? No. Did it further empower the community? No, in fact, more often than not, it created setbacks. But it did succeed in advancing Farrakhan's agenda and, as he would engage in provocations that would create angry rebukes, it kept him at the center of attention.

I asked Ron to explain the community's reactions to all this. He replied that "Farrakhan is the measure of the depth of black alienation from white America." Farrakhan understood this and so knew that his clever rhetoric would inflame passions (even among some in the so called "black establishment," who despite their success shared in the alienation born of discrimination). And he knew that whites would respond and counter attack and that this would only serve to deepen the support he would then receive from among his already alienated supporters. It was a vicious and unending game, in which the fears of some whites were reinforced, the frustrations of some African Americans were likewise reinforced, and nothing changed for the better -- except that Farrakhan drew record crowds and got lots of press.

This same dynamic is playing out in Lebanon and across parts of the Arab World today. Lebanon, in desperate need of reform and national reconciliation, is struggling to restore its sovereignty and its unity. Palestinians are denied freedom, with Gaza under siege, and the West Bank, despite some progress, still occupied. Millions of Palestinians remain in refugee camps, denied their fundamental rights. Iraq is in disarray and in many parts of the Arab World, having witnessed repeated tragedies in Palestine, Lebanon and, now Iraq, there is a gnawing sense of powerlessness and disarray and an uncertainty about the future.

Into this world, comes Ahmadinejad with his "in your face" bravado and his blusterous taunts. His message fuels anger, which provides but a temporary salve. Other than stirring the pot of discontent and rubbing old wounds raw, he offers no solutions for change. Instead of counterattacking and playing into his game (which benefits only him and his enemies), the response should be to proceed apace with the change the region so desperately needs. Strengthening Lebanon with reforms to empower the disenfranchised and working to guaranteed freedom and long denied rights to the Palestinians, would be the perfect places to start. As long as these wounds fester, the region will be a fertile place for alienation, provocation and disruption.

 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
BKearney
Life is funny, skies are sunny, bees make honey
09:15 AM on 10/19/2010
all of israel's neighbors need to heed sharron angle's advice.
"I think that two wrongs don't make a right. And I have been in the situation of counseling young girls, not 13 but 15, who have had very at risk, difficult pregnancies. And my counsel was to look for some alternatives, which they did. And they found that they had made what was really a lemon situation into lemonade."
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Puller58
Man of Mystery
08:10 PM on 10/18/2010
Lebanon has had problems that predate Iranian influence.
10:53 AM on 10/18/2010
If there is one thing the Israelis and Iranians (and the maybe US, though I think the mood is changing here) have in common is that neither wants a functional Palestinian state. Each will do what is necessary to keep the "chaos level" going for their own self-interests.
07:31 PM on 10/18/2010
So true.
10:39 AM on 10/18/2010
I fail to see a major difference between this incident and Obama's big speech in Egypt a while ago.

Both leaders fund groups that do not stand for democracy in the nations they were speaking in. Infact the Egyptians Obama supports stand less for democracy than Hezbollah does.
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piul05
Can I have a biscuit yet?
04:28 PM on 10/18/2010
Which incident?????
05:10 PM on 10/18/2010
His big trip to Egypt at the beginning of presidency

You don't remember that?

He drew a pretty big crowd. It made big news.
08:52 AM on 10/18/2010
Very good article. If more Arab voices were raised publicly against the would be genocidal Iranian leader, then Israel would feel less isolated and more willing to take chances for peace. Unfortunately, the Arab world is usually silent when the most extreme (Hamas, Hezbollolah, Achmedinajad) are proclaiming their desire to destroy Israel. Courageous Arab voices against violence would be met with courageous Israeli voices against violence.
05:45 PM on 10/18/2010
Love your last sentence... so true.
lastpost
see biography
05:30 AM on 10/18/2010
“the response should beâ€
to call Mahmoud out. If his vision is clear, he should be more than willing and able to prove the clarity of his analysis. Through constructively countering all forms of probing enquiry. Such an unclouded mind’s eye would indubitably see, that the world might be modified by virtue of authoritatively validating that realization. If, however, his understanding is naught but superficial in extremis. He will avoid at all costs that call.
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realitytrumpsbull
two 'alves of coconut!
04:09 AM on 10/18/2010
I hope that countries like Iran decide it's time to change the whole direction of their national dialogue, and give their neighbor countries some assurance that no, in fact, their country is not run by a bunch of religious loons, and yes, there's hope for the 21st century as their inventors and thinkers and so forth start forging ahead in developing and building things that'll benefit everyone in their country, and maybe even help em become bigger players in the world economy, something to export that other countries might be interested in buying or having. A lot of countries in the world have cleaved off from militant politics and fire-breathing, and instead become business successes, where they're more partners with their neighbor countries than rivals, and lots of people are making a buck and generally doing their able best to have a nice life out of the entire situation. Will Iran go that route? How about other countries of the region? What kind of future do they want? What's better, more years/decades of antagonism, and animosity, or more with the open borders, trade, partnerships, cooperation, and so forth? What kind of world do the Iranians want to live in? One where it's safe to walk down the street, and people have jobs and money and stuff, or one that's on fire, and has bomb craters all over the place?
05:06 AM on 10/18/2010
" more with the open borders, trade, partnerships, cooperation, and so forth?"
"Erdogan: Turkey wants to triple trade with Iran within 5 years"
http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/erdogan-turkey-wants-to-triple-trade-with-iran-within-5-years-1.314180

"trade between China and Iran grew by 35% in 2009 to $27 billion. "
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/LJ14Ag01.html

"Railway construction most important Armenian-Iranian project "
http://www.aysor.am/en/news/2010/10/11/armenia-iran/

"Mottaki: Iran to lift visa requirement for neighbouring states "
http://gulfnews.com/news/region/iran/mottaki-iran-to-lift-visa-requirement-for-neighbouring-states-1.697939

Etc.

To see how Reality Trumps Bull, see http://www.bibijon.org/iranimage/
03:09 PM on 10/17/2010
Pity Mr Zogby did not take the oppotunity to inform us about what was said, where, in what context, and to whom. so, I'll oblige:

Where, and to whom:

Robert Fisk 1996 Qana, Lebanon http://www.bintjbeil.com/E/occupation/robert_fisk_qana.html
It was a massacre. Not since Sabra and Chatila had I seen the innocent slaughtered like this. The Lebanese refugee women and children and men lay in heaps..."

2006 Human Rights Watch http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2006/07/29/israellebanon-israel-responsible-qana-attack

Lebanon: Israel Responsible for Qana Attack
Indiscriminate Bombing in Lebanon a War Crime
July 29, 2006

"Responsibility for the Israeli airstrikes that killed at least 54 civilians sheltering in a home in the Lebanese village of Qana rests squarely with the Israeli military, Human Rights Watch said today."

What Was Said:

"I have come to thank you for your patience, resistance and honor. I have come to offer greetings to you and to Qana, the land of patience and resistance. Qana is living proof of resistance, patience and faith of the people of Lebanon. The innocent and defenseless martyrs of Qana are proof of the innocence and resistance of the people of Lebanon. Qana is living proof of the crimes of the criminal ..."

http://www.juancole.com/2010/10/8944.html

If Jackson/Farrakhan references leave you scratching your head, try this for analysis:

http://www.raceforiran.com/the-true-significance-of-ahmadinejads-lebanon-visit
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Ergon
Man From Atlan
10:55 AM on 10/18/2010
Excerpt from your last link:
"Simplistic to some, perhaps – Islamist movements and Iranian leaders do harp continuously on just those global inequities, inequalities, lack of respect and of exploitation to which Brzezinski attributes the unprecedented political ‘awakening’. The tables are turned: as the values of ‘the market’ and the secular liberal world order appear increasingly hollow to those who see in it only privilege, disparity of wealth and self-enriching self-interest, the language of resistance and defiance of western political and business élites, who style themselves as ‘the international community’ of course resonates deeply in a Middle East that is ‘awakening politically’ and ‘stirring’"
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alimostofi
Astrologer, Commentator
07:49 AM on 10/17/2010
Also read this:

Lebanese Prime Minister Sa'ad Hariri told Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Beirut will not join a regional axis because Lebanon's unique coexistence formula prevents the country from joining any regional alliances, according to a report in Lebanon's An Nahar on Friday.

from: http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=191564
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alimostofi
Astrologer, Commentator
07:45 AM on 10/17/2010
JZ read this

Therefore, an initial reading [of this visit] is that Ahmadinejad rushed to Lebanon in response to the historic joint-visit undertaken by Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Lebanon, travelling on the same airplane. This means that the Iranians, who have clearly become fed up with the Syrian disposition – although this is an article for another time – decided to publicly visit the country this time, in order to rescue Nasrallah from the findings of the Hariri tribunal. This is what Ahmadinejad's speech in the southern suburbs of Beirut revealed, and here it is important that we recall the surprise on Nasrallah's face on the day that he made his famous speech saying "they have acquitted Syria" in order to understand Iran's concern for Hezbollah today.

from :http://www.aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=2&id=22688
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Ergon
Man From Atlan
11:07 AM on 10/18/2010
Your source is a Saudi newspaper owned by a member of the Saudi Royal family, which rightly fears any increase in Iranian influence.
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MarcEdward
likes all cats more than most people
03:53 PM on 10/18/2010
"rightly"?
I fail to see how Saudi influence is more in the US interest than Iranian influence. The Saudis have been working against our interests for a while.
12:02 AM on 10/17/2010
now for the bottom line:
The Moderate Muslims Community is Scared to Death to Stand Up to the Extremists. .
this is Tyranny and it ain't goin away any time soon . . and US . .
Yup . . that's our heads in the sand . . fool on Wayne!!!
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JudgeMoonbox
10:40 PM on 10/16/2010
Hezbollah's "victory" in 2006 was because the outside world, including a lot of Christian majority nations, were so horrified by the war that they quickly brought about a ceasefire agreement. Ahmadinejad shows as much honesty in attributing it to Lebanese Shiite stamina as he had when he called the Holocaust a hoax. I just hope that Nasrallah remembers that his provocation was a blunder and is not deluded by Ahmadinejad's praise.

I would also hope that Nasrallah remembers that the other segments of Lebanon's population doesn't want to be dragged into another war, and that his constituents would do a lot better if he earns the trust of the entire Lebanese people.
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Ergon
Man From Atlan
10:52 PM on 10/16/2010
Yet, the Winograd Commission report says "As for achievements, the Commission reported that "SC resolution 1701, and the fact that it was adopted unanimously, were an achievement for Israel"
So, which is it?
Just be glad you got out, you'd been fought to a standstill.
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ariveria
08:58 PM on 10/16/2010
very incite full.

i thought obama was the anti christ and would bring peace to the middle east. guess those people were wrong

"We used to hustle over the border for health care we received in Canada," Sarah Palin March 8, 2010
come on sarah where were you born. Show us the birth certificate.
07:39 PM on 10/16/2010
The remarks you make could be generalized and applied to all radical populists of left and right who exploit their political base using emotionalist extremism.

Beck has a lot in common with Ahmadinejad.
paco15
The revolution is over. The bums lost.
08:42 PM on 10/16/2010
Yes he also has the urge to acquire nuclear arms.......
07:12 AM on 10/17/2010
He just needs to influence government formation in his country which already has them.
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Ergon
Man From Atlan
09:43 PM on 10/16/2010
Zionism falls under what category then, in your world view?
06:56 AM on 10/17/2010
Extreme 'ever more setter' secular or religious Zionism - yes.
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Richard Pearce banned
Never let them tell you it can't be done.
05:29 PM on 10/16/2010
Ah, yes, yet another voice decrying the invited visitor, who proved so popular with so many Lebanese (probably because of the combination of Iranian aid to help Lebanese people rebuild, and the signing, on this trip, of agreements and understandings that show Iran will help the Lebanese state rebuild, and the knowledge that hear was the leader of a state, that the same forces that have kept Lebanon in misery would like to crush, that refuses to either be crushed or to cringe), because his words annoy and irritate the US and Israel (especially when heard through the distorting microphone they use to listen to him) and so are seen to 'divide Lebanon' (between those who prefer to live proud and free, and those who figure bowing and scraping, and cringeing when told to, is the better life)

Yes, Ahmadinejad's visit is a danger to those in Lebanon who do not want it to take its place in the world as a proud and independant country, able to look to the south with head held high and say 'you might be able to beat, rob, and maim me, but you can't crush me'. Now, whether you regard that as a danger to Lebanese in general depends on your view of things.
OBAMAMOI
Nature does nothing useless
10:16 PM on 10/16/2010
Fannedddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd
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JudgeMoonbox
10:47 PM on 10/16/2010
"Ahmadinejad's visit is a danger to those in Lebanon who do not want it to take its place in the world as a proud and independant country"

Do you really think that the Sunni Muslims, Maronite Christians, Druze, and probably other factions who think that Lebanon is better off without Syrian and Iranian interference don't want to take their place in the world? Or are you using the presence of a few defeatists (they are on both sides) to denigrate people who think that being a Syrian puppet is not independence?