I just took a 50 to 1 bet that Arnold Schwarzenegger would not be re-elected in November. My one dollar for his fifty. The odds were too good and I know anything can happen in politics in two months. Even if, like most Democrats, I don't really believe Democratic challenger Phil Angelides has a good chance of beating Schwarzenegger.
A few months ago Schwarzenegger was eminently beatable after having called a special election to mock nurses, firefighters, teachers and other working people as "special interests" and seeing his approval rating plunge to 40%. Arnold apologized and, like a battered spouse, the public seems to have accepted. Why? Herein lies the cautiounary tale for Democrats nationwide on how to lose a winnable election.
1. Democratic legislative leaders gave Arnold exactly what he wanted, a face-lift that let him distance himself from the last flop. Schwarzenegger's doing a victory dance around America over a purported fix to global warming, the world's biggest problem, that unfortunately lets Schwarzenegger's administration derail the new law after election day if it chooses to. That's because the real power to implement or divest from global emissions targets rests with a state Air Resources Board Schwarzenegger controls. And would a second term governor who has raked in over $100 million from big business interests give a second thought to declaring the emissions targets a threat to the economy? Schwarzenegger's lied to Californians time after time, but somehow Democratic leaders and the environmental lobby trust him. The enviros should know the sad story of government is the making of regulations can postpone laws for decades unless a public official really wants change to happen. Wouldn't it have been better to elect a governor they trust, then cut the deal?
2. Self-interested leaders and groups promoted themselves at the expense of taking power. It wasn't just the environmental community looking to claim victory after nuzzling up in Schwarzenegger's smoking tent. (Take a look at NRDC's Ralph Cavanagh on the Schwarzenegger re-election team long before the emissions deal.) Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (co-chair of the Angelides campaign in name only) is a mentee of super-star LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who would like to run for Governor in four years if Angelides loses now. Nunez is rumored to want to be LA Mayor if Antonio runs. Nunez authored the emissions legisltion and also pushed through a prescription drug discount plan that once again gives all the power to Schwarzenegger (after election day) to crack down or not crack down on drug companies that have given his committees more than a million bucks. And Nunez has been praising Arnold so widely in the media that Mrs. Nunez must be wondering what the two are up to after hours in Sacramento. Villaraigosa didn't endorse Angelides until after he and Schwarzenegger waltzed around the state claiming victory on the break up of the Los Angeles Unified School District. In fact Villaraigosa just endorsed challenger Angelides this week after Democratic donors had concluded Angelides couldn't be saved. It felt just like when Antonio showed up to save Gray Davis during the recall, a eulogy instead of an endorsement. The California Democratic party disunity is infused with all the vanity, hubris and guile of a Shakesperean tragedy. Phil must be asking daily "Et Tu Brutus?"
3. The Democratic challenger shot himself in the foot by distancing himself from his base. The one thing that the Democratic legislative leaders did right was to put landmark universal health care legislation on Schwarzenegger's desk. It was dubbed veto bait by the press, but it made the point of the differences between the parties. Democrats believe in guaranteeing access to health care for all patients and rebuilding the crumbling pillars of the health care system left behind by GOP indifference. Republicans like Schwarzenegger wanted health care for all who could pay for it. Gubernatorial challenger Phil Angelides then blew it by declaring he too was opposed to the universal health care measure put forth by State Senator Shiela Kuehl. Cold feet? Caught the stupid flu? We still don't know. Guess he was just scared of big changes. But I knew when I read the news in the San Francisco Chronicle last week that Angelides was pretty much dust. His only hope was to be a populist, to stand for real change, to take risks Schwarzenegger wouldn't.
Why did I take that bet? I love long shots. I have to. I am a registered Democrat.