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Janet Tavakoli

Janet Tavakoli

Posted: December 31, 2009 11:58 AM

Washington's Bipartisan Betrayal: The 2015 Global Financial Crisis

What's Your Reaction:

The time has come for new year's resolutions. The House passed the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2009 (H.R. 4173) on December 11, 2009. It gives $4 trillion in "emergency funding" to our largest banks during the next financial crisis. Instead of reform, Congress offers even bigger bailouts. Unless we change direction, we will have another crisis by 2015. Congress has made all the wrong moves to guarantee it.

The economy did not just have a heart attack; we are suffering from financial appendicitis. Instead of doing the necessary surgery, Congress is prescribing potent addictive painkillers.

How did we get here? Housing is the largest component of our economy. Cheap money from the Federal Reserve, crippling of states rights to reign in mortgage lenders, and failure to enforce securities laws allowed the largest Ponzi scheme in the history of the capital markets to flourish.

Wall Street's shadow banking system gave mortgage lenders large credit lines (similar to credit card debt) and packaged the loans into private-label residential mortgage backed securitizations. Most of each deal was rated "AAA," since subordinated investors absorbed the risk of a pre-agreed amount of loan losses. But hundreds of billions of dollars in private-label deals were backed by portfolios comprising risky fraud-riddled loans. Most of the "AAA" investment was imperiled, and subordinated "investment grade" components were worthless. Wall Street disguised these toxic "investments" with new value-destroying securitizations* and related credit derivatives.

Meanwhile, collapsing mortgage lenders paid high dividends to shareholders (old investors) and interest on credit lines to Wall Street (old investors) with money raised from new investors (perhaps your pension fund) in doomed securities. New money allowed Wall Street to temporarily hide losses and pay enormous bonuses. This is a classic Ponzi scheme.

The following is an April 19, 2009 C-Span Video**:

When you leverage fraud riddled fixed income securities priced at 100 cents on the dollar, there is nowhere to go but down in a hurry. Confusion after the fraud fell apart led to a vicious cycle of selling as investors and lenders shunned both good and bad assets. The deflating debt bubble was followed by a classic liquidity crunch resulting in a global crisis.

Wall Street protests that it sold toxic assets to sophisticated investors obliged to perform independent investigations of the risk. That argument no longer applies. U.S. taxpayers became unwilling unsophisticated investors funding Wall Street's bailout.

Other parties--mortgage bankers, credit rating agencies, hedge funds, credit rating agency, insurers, mortgage brokers, regulators, Congress, and the Federal Reserve Bank--were supporting actors. If Wall Street's financial meth labs had been shut down earlier, the money machine would have stopped running.

Recent arguments blame Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the indirect mortgage lending giants. This is misguided. The largest slug of new risky products and bad loans were created to fuel Wall Street's private-label securitizations. Fannie and Freddie were more at the effect than the cause (not blameless, but not the largest cause of the housing bubble). Now that shadow banking is dead, they are being stuffed with even more bad product to pick up the slack.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the new motor for no-money-down mortgage loans and a host of new problems. The fraudsters involved with our last crisis went unpunished, and they will help create our next crisis. This brewing fraud fest will result in greater misery and systemic risk. Instead of reform, Congress responded on Christmas Eve by agreeing to cover unlimited loan losses.

Bank depositors' money is guaranteed, if deposits are below the current FDIC deposit insurance limits. Banks did not need to be bailed out to protect depositors. We bailed out banks' other creditors with public money. We are printing so much money that now depositors should worry about inflation.

Inflation is the great destroyer. Inflation will wipe out investment gains (and more) much more quickly than taxes. If you earn, say, 5% on your deposits, 5% inflation will wipe out your gains, (and you aren't earning 5% on your deposits or treasury notes in the first place). That is worse than any current or proposed tax rate, since that would translate to a 100% tax rate.

Wall Street, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac supply a swinging door of jobs and paid projects for its financial regulators, Congressmen, appointed administration officials, and investigation committee staffers. Many members of Congress and our Presidents have received massive campaign contributions funded by Wall Street. This dependence is known as "capture," and the result is that instead of reigning in Wall Street, dependent thinking enables mayhem.

We have an alternative to bailouts, one that does not violate the spirit of democracy. Troubled financial entities should be put into receivership and restructured. Old shareholders will be wiped out. Debt-holders will take a haircut (discount) along with a debt for new equity swap to recapitalize the entity. But the job won't be complete until we separate high risk activities from traditional banking in return of Glass-Steagall, indict fraudsters, snuff out systemic fraud, and allow honest bankers to prosper.

After the Savings and Loan crisis of the late 1980's, there were more than 1,000 felony indictments of senior officers. Recent fraud is much more widespread and costly. The consequences are much greater. Congress needs to fund investigations. Regulators need to get tough on crime.

The fact that many U.S. banks stuck to traditional banking and protected shareholders during this crisis is under-publicized, but their prudence worked.

We have the solutions. We need the political will to implement them.


* Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs and CDO-squared), Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs), Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduits (REMICs and Re-REMICs), Asset Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP), and related credit derivatives. Wall Street also engaged in suspect securitizations of some credit card receivables, auto loans, bank trust preferred securities, commercial real estate loans, and a variety of corporate loans.

**When asked whether or not certain individuals had done anything illegal, I responded that I did "not think anyone did anything illegal, because Congress did not pass laws to make it so," because I did not want to scapegoat individuals. I should have said: "That is up to the Department of Justice to determine."

 
 
 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TJCole
02:26 PM on 01/04/2010
We could have addressed all of these bad practices had we Nationalized the major corrupt banks and reformed completely from within...!

Not doing so was a terribly irresponsible failure on Obama's part...
11:51 PM on 01/03/2010
I would have liked to see the article also take on the exotic foolhardy mortgages known as Payment Option ARMS which allowed the borrower to pay LESS than the interest each month resulting in negative amortization. Along with securitization of the mortgages this was one of the main culprits. The article treated Fannie and Freddie guilt in 3 ways NOT ot blame but not blameless and not major contributor. You have to ask yourself this question: If all mortgages were the old fashioned kind that required 20% down , 30 year fixed with a debt to income ratio that made sense and the bank held on to the mortgage would any of this had happened. There is no way
08:52 AM on 01/04/2010
It's in the video. She talks about risky mortgage loans at around minutes 16-19 minutes.
10:00 AM on 01/04/2010
Greenspan was on the MSM pushing "innovative" mortgages like ARMs and interest only loans long after it was apparent to anyone with a pulse that the real estate market was overheated

When we purchased our current home 6 years ago the broker pushed hard to get us into an ARM or other gimmick loan. We really had to stick to our guns to get the conventional, they even commented "no one does conventional loans anymore" - my reply was "I do" then they tried to get us to borrow more money than we needed - we flat out refused - "why would we want to do that?" I have had better experiences with used car salesmen! We had to threaten to walk if we didn't get what we wanted

totally different experience from my first home purchase experience many moons ago - despite spotless credit, no debt, steady work history, and plenty to put down they really put me through the wringer, checking me and my creditworhiness every which way you could

we could definitely use more of the latter type of lending rather than the former

I can see how pushy and unscrupulous lenders could talk the less finacially savvy into a loan they couldn't afford
01:17 PM on 01/04/2010
I took out an ARM in 1984. Still have it. It has saved me tens of thousands of dollars over a conventional.
09:40 PM on 01/03/2010
So then, you must know where I can go to get me some jumbo money.
08:32 AM on 01/04/2010
You may not be able to get a jumbo loan, but if you are a first time home buyer you can get a no-money-down loan by borrowing against your tax credit in my state. The nonsense continues. Tavakoli was talking about the relationship between mortgage lenders and the banks in the recent crisis in the video and in the fourth paragraph. Banks now own many mortgage lenders. For example, Bank of America owns Countrywide. Bank of America also now owns Merrill Lynch. Merrill had an officer on Ownit’s board (a California-based mortgage lender) until it went bankrupt in December 2006. The game has moved on. Taxpayer subsidies allow banks to engage in risky trades instead of direct lending, and lax accounting lets them push losses down the road for a host of asset classes still on their books.
outnow
Ban the bomb
10:52 AM on 01/03/2010
The Cassandra of Derivatives tells it like it is. By mid-2006, I was warning off anybody and everybody who would listen to me. The real estate bubble was going to crash and the "repo" (repurchase) market was going to freeze up (not "repo" like your automobile - I'm talking about where the banks and shadow lenders do their trading of toxic assets). Suddenly, bankers and shadow lenders experienced a default rate at a rate that belied the ratings given to the complex assets. That critical moment caused a freeze up.

The problem is much deeper than just subprime lending. QE and inflationary money creation will eventually result in the dollar going down and the creation of a global monetary system with Globo-dollars. The world will be governed by bankers and financiers.

Buffet warned about the dangers of derivatives used to hedge against currencies printed out of thin air by Bazooka Ben, Man of the Year. To keep the Ponzi scheme running, your civil rights will have to be curtailed. They blame terrorism but the idea of fiat money and fractional reserve banking is inherently undemocratic. With no fixed exchange rates, hedging and complex securities too opaque to prperly evaluate replace the modified gold standard which went to the dustbin back in 1971.
10:13 PM on 01/02/2010
The terms "AAA Securities" and "Sophisticated Investors" do not belong in the same sentence; the whole point to AAA rating is that you should NOT have to be a rocket science "quant" to evaluate their level of risk, for that level should be very low, in keeping with the low rate of return characteristic of AAA rating.

That the toxic crap that was tranched into CDOs was rated as AAA deserves the succinct legal description of FRAUD! There are people working on Wall Street that belong in jail....
10:28 AM on 01/03/2010
This is simply false. Read the ratings agency disclaimer.
10:01 AM on 01/04/2010
so as usual - protect and exempt themselves through the fine print and legalese
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
R U Mad
Libbies make me laugh!
12:49 PM on 01/02/2010
Cudos Janet!! Good piece!!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
R U Mad
Libbies make me laugh!
12:48 PM on 01/02/2010
It is nice to see an article that tells it like its!! Cudos Janet! And on this site to boot!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
R U Mad
Libbies make me laugh!
12:46 PM on 01/02/2010
Very well written piece!! Cudos Janet!! It is nice to see the Huffington Post put up an article that tells it like it is!
10:33 AM on 01/02/2010
The system itself is a ponzi scheme and has been since 1913. Debt is money. Without debt, there is no money. Since 1960 and accelerated in 1980, private debt has increased virtually every year from 40% of GDP in 1960 to 300% now at $47 trillion. Without ever increasing debt, there would have been virtually no growth in GDP or employment. The only way to keep the system going is by inflating asset prices like housing and stocks and fancy ways to increase debt (hello derivatives).

The flaw is the concept of making money with money using compounding interest. Allows rich people to sit back and watch their money magically grow but this only happens because of ever increasing indebtedness from the bottom 80 to 90% of people and inflation of asset prices.

Now this is no longer occurring, debt destruction and deflation (depression) are the only way out, made slower and immediately less painful only by govt spending, the debtor of last resort.

Since we own Freddie and Fannie, why not write the American Dream into law and cut everyone's mortgage in half?

How? By absorbing the private Fed into the public Treasury (public money creation, as the constitution stipulates) and giving Americans what banks now get - direct access to the discount window. Use interest free money for all public debts as well.

Cut the bankers out of the middle.
02:38 AM on 01/02/2010
The "political will" was not there to enforce rules, regulations and laws *before* the crisis, arguably setting the stage for the Meltdown.

Now the political will to do the right thing does not exist in our gov't which has been taken over by monied interests. A coup has occurred and the past 60 years of relative stability prevents Americans from letting themselves realize this. America is not what we think it is, nor is Obama, nor the gov't. And until Americans allow themselves to see reality, there will be no political will.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
joebhed
Greenback Revolutionist
10:49 PM on 01/01/2010
Whoa !
Rarely seen such truth spoken to power.

Very glad to see this out in the interweb, so to speak.

This is everything, perhaps excepting one.
Why?

Answer - it was needed to perpetuate the debt-money system.
Needed: The debt-free Money System Common

Thanks so much, Janet.

www.economicstability.org
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
WoolStreet
03:50 AM on 01/01/2010
What I find interesting is these bubbles seem to coincide with infrastructure expansion by China and India. Russia perhaps also.

Your analysis is the most succinct, spot on and to the heart I've read in the past two years.

Your response to G-S's lame "sophisticated investors" defense transcends to the plane of universal truth. Two wrongs don't make a right. Goldman Sachs knew they were screwing the trusting and unqualified investors providing the money(primarily middle class workers ie teachers, cops and firefighters) the "Sophisticated Investors" were flushing into rigged CDO's. Are the "sophisticated investors" guilty of neglecting their client's fiduciary responsibility? Perhaps. Does that excuse Wall Street's behavior? NO!

The only complaint I have for your writing, is that it does not fully express how many people were crushed by Wall Street's greed. As the toll continues to mount daily, I suppose Hercules would never have finished the stable were the horses still dropping similar offerings.
05:01 PM on 12/31/2009
Janet Tavakoli, can you tell me which Wall Street financial institution will give me a one-million-dollar jumbo, no money down, interest only, with no income documentation? I really need this mortgage. Please help me find it.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
lordmi
09:30 AM on 01/03/2010
mam just does not know - how banks work.