iPhone app iPad app Android phone app Android tablet app More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Jared Bernstein

GET UPDATES FROM Jared Bernstein
 

Health Care Reform Leftovers

Posted: 07/03/2012 9:02 am

There is a lot of crazy stuff on the airwaves re: the Supreme Court's upholding of the Affordable Care Act.

The Inane "Is It a Tax?" Debate: Republicans are viciously attacking the ruling because it introduces a new "tax" on people who don't have coverage. As I and many others have stressed, this tax is a free-rider penalty. It is a PRF -- a personal responsibility fee -- for not saddling the rest of us with your health care costs, thereby imposing an implicit tax on the rest of us. And it hits 1-2% of the population.

You thought personal responsibility was supposed to be a conservative value? Not, apparently, when the dreaded tax word is invoked.

But, really, a pox on both houses here. Despite the fact that the Supreme Court ruling calls it a tax -- I mean, it doesn't just call it a tax, it says the reason we can do this is because Congress can tax -- Democrats are working overtime to not pronounce those dreaded three letters. Weirdly, they now have an ally in this Kabuki theater: Governor Romney!

I get it: silliness pervades in an election year... but really? Seriously?!? Taxes happen in societies -- according to a Supreme Court justice from a saner time, they're "the price we pay for a civilized society." And in this case, they're the price we pay to offset a negative externality by which the behavior of a small minority of citizens imposes a cost on everyone else.

To be ashamed to make that case is to cede the field to Norquist and co.

The Supreme Court Ruling's Impact on the Cost of the Affordable Care Act: Another unfortunate talking point evolved over the weekend that also makes no sense: based on changes to the law imposed by the SCOTUS, the ACA is now a "budget-buster." I heard Sen. Coburn make this argument on a Sunday show, and my conservative doppelganger Doug Holtz-Eakin made the point in a debate we had on Friday. Doug's argument was later picked up by the Washington Post... unfortunately because, as my CBPP colleague Paul Van de Water points out here, it's got to be wrong.

First, you should know that the CBO scored the ACA as slightly reducing the budget deficit in the first decade of its existence and reducing it a lot more in its second decade. So, what's changed in the SCOTUS ruling that would lead Republicans to make the claim that the law is no longer fully paid for?

The only change the SCOTUS made that has significant fiscal implications is making the Medicaid expansion optional for states. If no states take them up on that, the CBO cost estimate stands. But if states opt out, that means the law should cost less to implement, not more! This is a bad thing as I see it, because it means less coverage for the poor. But it saves money.

Clever Doug argues otherwise based on the following logic: It's true that people below 100% of poverty will now not benefit from the Medicaid extension in opt-out states. But those between 100-133% of poverty -- who would have been covered under the Medicaid expansion -- will now be eligible for the federal subsidies to buy insurance from the state exchanges, coverage which Paul Van de Water says "may be more costly than Medicaid."

The problem for Doug, Sen. Coburn and others who are making this case is that there are about four times more people potentially eligible for Medicaid below 100% than between 100 and 133%. As the figure below -- from some very timely Urban Institute research -- reveals, there are 22.3 million uninsured poor and near-poor people who would be eligible for coverage under the Medicaid expansion. But about 80% of them -- 17.8 million -- are below 100% of poverty and therefore not eligible for subsidies. It's implausible that a much smaller group getting subsidies would cost more than a much larger group not getting on the Medicaid rolls.

2012-07-03-aca_tidbits.png
Source: Urban Institute


In this regard, based on the SCOTUS ruling, the CBO cost estimate should now be considered an upper bound. It's the cost of the ACA if no states reject the Medicaid expansion.

This post originally appeared at Jared Bernstein's On The Economy blog.

 

Follow Jared Bernstein on Twitter: www.twitter.com/@econjared

FOLLOW POLITICS
 
 
  • Comments
  • 231
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Bloggers
Recency  | 
Popularity
Page: 1 2 3  Next ›  Last »  (3 total)
photo
HUFFPOST BLOGGER
stack
USW Blogger
02:26 PM on 07/03/2012
But Republicans like free riders. They are all for the "freedom" not to have insurance -- making you a free rider on the rest of society, which pays when you get sick or hurt. And they are all for free riders in unions -- that's why they support legislation that will enable people to opt out of union dues but still demand to receive union benefits, including higher wages and union representation if they have a grievance against the company.
02:25 PM on 07/03/2012
...most of the people that fall under the poverty line (and under the 133% ceiling) are immigrants and are covered by Medicaid and other programs. If states opt out of the PPACA and the Feds do not provide them with expansion money for Medicaid, the state is going to have to incur the cost of the increase. States like Florida share in the cost of Medicaid, so if they were to opt out, any expansion cost will have to be picked up by the State in the form of tax increases or reduction of services..either alternative chosen by an incumbent would certainly cost them their re-election ambitions. The PPACA is a good Act. It addresses inequality, makes Healthcare available to everyone and helps reduce the deficit. It is a balanced approach that taxes large companies and the rich and make individuals buy health insurance plus tax breaks for small companies. However, the PPACA should not be the end of reform. It should serve as a basis for Universal Healhcare Insurance. This is the only way to serve the Common Good... the PPACA incrementally addresses the chronic problem of inequality in our country, but, the solution is Universal Health Insurance.
02:12 PM on 07/03/2012
I simply can't understand why one would choose not to have health insurance. I heard someone on TV (a Tea Partier) say that it's all about freedom and if something happened to them they would get the care needed because doctors have to treat people for free. Also, someone below said that there are other options besides drugs and surgery. Well, good luck finding another option if you should happen to fall and break your hip, as I did two years ago. I was then a fairly healthy 60 year old, non-smoker, thin, with low blood pressure (which was the main reason for my fall). Even if I take personal responsibility for that fall, since then I have been through a nightmare of complications and other surgeries, none of which were because of anything I did wrong. My medical claims for the past few years are approaching $900,000. Fortunately, I have decent health insurance, but who would have paid if I couldn't? I certainly don't have that kind of money. It's hard enough coming up with deductibles and co-insurance.

By the way, I worked for a major health insurer for 19 years, and although I'm grateful for the good benefits, I do wish we had some sort of universal health care.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RalphJoseph
nothing is as it appears to be nor is it otherwise
03:00 PM on 07/03/2012
Doctors treat you for free?
Try to treatment for a catostrophic illness for free.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RalphJoseph
nothing is as it appears to be nor is it otherwise
03:10 PM on 07/03/2012
They are not against health insuance they are against Obama, regardless.
Bladernr1001
Vote Libertarian
05:55 PM on 07/03/2012
What I want IS insurance!...not the government mandated monstosity we have now.

Government by freezing wages in WWII compelled employers to institute the employee based insurance system...which is NOT insurance...it is perk...part of your compensation.

To call it insurance, would be like having an auto policy that paid for your gas and oil changes.

Insurance is for catastrophic and financially devistating events...not a $75 trip to your family doctor....adn you e know what...insurance comapnies aren't even allowed to offer teh real insurance...again by government edict. If they were a policy would cost a fraction of what it does now.

Obamacare just further enshrined this stupid system that was created by a govenrment boneheaded move.
photo
LoneTree
Liberty is more precious than life.
02:01 PM on 07/03/2012
"...according to a Supreme Court justice from a saner time, they're "the price we pay for a civilized society."..."

A quote attributed to Oliver Wendell Holmes, either in 1904 or 1927, or perhaps some other time prior to his death in 1932. But in any case, before the first of the New Deal entitlements. This is germane because it's the root cause of Conservative aversion to taxes.

Up through the early 1960's, our taxes went to the federal government to exercise federal enumerated powers and responsibilities. Under Eisenhower, 55% of the federal budget went to defense, less than 6% to social spending. People accepted the need for a 90% top income tax rate, it was clearly to benefit the nation ("the general welfare"). It was not transfer payments from those who work to those who won't (or other incendiary words to that effect, choose your poison).

The system of social safety net spending, including Social Security, Medicare/aid, and transfer payments to the states to support social welfare spending has become a monster, but for reasons that are not often noted.

The federal government has become the Sugar Daddy, so all federal politics has become personal. Who pays, and who plays. Issues of war and peace take back burner when personal entitlements and personal taxes are at issue. The Founders wrote the Tenth Amendment for a reason. We've repealed it without a vote, and now our federal government is in useless disarray.
photo
PocketWatchQQ
I'm a Socialist, wanna make something of it?
01:57 PM on 07/03/2012
It would do everyone well to remember that it was Richard Nixon who created HMO's, the beginning of the explosion of health care costs and the costs of health insurance. He said (it's on tape) that it would be a great way for insurance companies to make more money.
Bladernr1001
Vote Libertarian
05:57 PM on 07/03/2012
yea...so both dems and repubs are responsible fro creating this stupid system...so whats your point???
01:56 PM on 07/03/2012
The people who can afford health insurance but do not buy it are paying their own way. They are not free-loading. The people you see crowding in emergency rooms because they do not have health insurance are already below your arbitrary line. So there is no free loading. You are simply taking 1-2 percent of the population that choose to put their money elsewhere and taxing them. Many of them, like me, are self-employed. I am currently young and healthy. Now is a good time to take my income and put it into building my business rather than paying for insurance. This will cripple my ability to do that, cutting my current income, my long-term growth of income, and the potential income of potential employees that I would be able to hire if I were able to grow my business enough. I am also saving for some dental work, something ACA will not help with in any way. There goes a badly need crown for my fiance, gotta pay the "freeloader tax".

Fools, this is just an attack on freedom and redistribution of wealth. Period. Every justification you have is made-up fluff and fear mongering. The reality is you are hurting people that are healthy and working, in order to partially offset the cost of supporting people who are not working. And I say partially, because the plan is still going to bankrupt an already struggling economy.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RalphJoseph
nothing is as it appears to be nor is it otherwise
03:07 PM on 07/03/2012
Get sick without health insurance and see what happens to your income and long term growth plans.
Bladernr1001
Vote Libertarian
06:00 PM on 07/03/2012
That is a relatively rare occurrance....and one that if the govenrment allowed it would be covered by a very inexpensive catestrophic policy.....butt noooooooo.the govenrment has to carry on the inane employer based system based on some nebulous concept of "social justice"...stupid ...just stupid
06:31 PM on 07/03/2012
I know, it would be devastating. Fortunately, its not all that likely. This is the problem with all the fear-mongering is that people are convinced that they are constantly on the edge of catastrophe because of their health. If that were really the case, insurance companies would not be in business. Life is a gamble. Insurance mitigates financial risk of something bad happening, but it does nothing to prevent the bad thing itself. Life. Is. Risk. Without risk, there would be nothing, no growth, no development, no innovation, no success, nothing. Without the freedom to take a risk, this already flailing economy will waste away and we will all starve and try to fix it with even more government restriction and safety nets, further destroying the society. Welcome to your utopian nightmare.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jwl3ss
01:54 PM on 07/03/2012
Taxes happen in societies -- isn't the problem. Every member of society is a spoke in the wheel. Many spokes distribute the weight so no one spoke shoulders the full load. In our society, there are more than a few spokes (folks) who question shouldering their brunt of the load. I mean, after all, the wagon keeps moving along whether a few spokes are broken or not, whether they're working or not. So others have to pick up the slack. When the President proclaimed I am my brother's keeper, he neglected to answer a few questions. Like, for how long? To what extent? How much is enough? Should there be a limit? Lending a helping hand doesn't mean reaching into freshly poured concrete and waiting for it to harden so you can't get unstuck and get trapped in it yourself.
01:44 PM on 07/03/2012
commerce clause or tax authority? this supreme court ruling only demonstrates how words no longer have meaning. Like words from Mr. Roberts confirmation hearings or words written in 1787 or words Mr. Obama used to get elected. They are just words. You can put whatever words you want on paper and suddenly x=y.
photo
unionave
Old Codger
01:31 PM on 07/03/2012
As the name implies ; before the Affordable Health Care Act , health care was unaffordable . It was unaffordable because the Republicans made it that way .

The Republicans are claiming to have a better health care plan but prior to the 2010 election the Republicans claimed they were going to create jobs . If a Republican's lips are moving they are lying . That may be why Mitch Mc doesn't move his lips .

Going back in time , the Republicans claimed corporation duty free importation of finished goods and materials (free trade) would create jobs and it did . Millions of them . And for each job they created they took one away from the American worker . And their justification and smoke screen has been a long campaign of vilification against American labor unions . And since then Americans have been living in a continually sinking standard of living with disappearing support programs .
photo
LoneTree
Liberty is more precious than life.
02:03 PM on 07/03/2012
"... before the Affordable Health Care Act , health care was unaffordable..."

Our healthcare insurance premiums have gone up SHARPLY since the passage of ACA. So much so that we've had to scale back to a less comprehensive policy than we formerly had. That is a simple fact.
madame48
NO..it's a gop Cookbook !Tempus edax,homo edacior
06:29 PM on 07/03/2012
You are 100% correct....and this old lady has watched the slow motion murder of the middle class
photo
unionave
Old Codger
01:38 AM on 07/04/2012
/f ! We have gone from a family living well off one salary to what we have today with one family needing more that two salaries . By any stretch of the imagination that is a declining standard of living . The real problem is that our young have never experienced what has been taken away from us .
01:30 PM on 07/03/2012
Thank you for your article Mr. Bernstein. Please note that the average state medicaid cutoff is at 73% of the poverty level. What about the working poor above that level but under 100% where the mandated health insurance premium subsidies would kick in? In many states with budget contstraints where there will be no medicaid expansion, those working poor in the GAP neither get medicaid or the insurance premium subsidy, yet they are mandated by Obamacare to buy for profit health insurance at full price or be penalized by the IRS. How many millions of working mothers and orther working poor actualy suffer under Obamacare? Why did your article not discuss this? Why is this issue not being reported in the media?
01:51 PM on 07/03/2012
Because its even more alice in wonderlandy than the current batch of inanities being bandyed about by the horses who wanted to run one way when they were in charge and now want to run the other way since they say they are not in charge. of course, no one is in charge but now I am being redundant, tsk. and yes. thank you mr b for your article. you can't be expected to write a tome. no one would read it. course, how many of the folks commenting have actually read it either.
02:36 PM on 07/03/2012
I read the article. Mr. Bernstein writes that over 17 million working poor are in the GAP. They are under the mandate to buy for profit health insurance at full price or be penalized by the IRS, yet they do not quailfy for medicaid in states that opt out of the expanded medicaid entitled, nor are the eligible for subsidy/tax credits to help pay for their mandated for profit insurance policy. Prove me wrong. Mr. Bernstein's article tells you this. There is no exclusion that they are not under the Obamacare mandate. What did Justice Roberts do?
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
01:20 PM on 07/03/2012
Hi, my name is Warren Buffy-I'm a multi-billionaire. I self insure all my medical expenses-because I'm rich. WHY am I now subjected to a tax on a product I have no desire or intention of ever purchasing? Why an I forced to engage in commerce I have no desire to engage in? And one of my un-insured friends just drowned a few months ago-so he never needed any health care services-because he was found dead. So this notion that EVERYONE will need healthcare services someday is simply NOT true.
01:58 PM on 07/03/2012
Unfortunately, you are correct. but also unfortunately such a very small number of people fit the drowned guy's profile we need not answer that. As for your richness. Well, first of all congrats. 2nd of all, you got rich through a system supported by taxes. Education, roadways et al. so get over it if you have no need of health insurance. You better be very very rich if you get very very sick sometime in the future. tsk.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
02:20 PM on 07/03/2012
You failed to address my questions, which are the heart of the matter. I must now engage in private commerce which I do not wish to purchase.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
JPJABBER
'twas brillig and the slithey tode...
01:58 PM on 07/03/2012
toll alrert
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
02:19 PM on 07/03/2012
Yet another ACORN "educated" poster.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MassWG
12:59 PM on 07/03/2012
"this tax is a free-rider penalty -- a personal responsibility fee -- for not saddling the rest of us with your health care costs, thereby imposing an implicit tax on the rest of us"

I'm trying to figure this out. If health care is a positive economic right that government should provide, as progressives seem to think, then it falls into the same category as the "rights" to adequate food, shelter, education, etc.

If one shifts any of these "personal responsibility" costs from himself to the public, isn't he also a free-rider, who deserves to penalized? And then don't ALL individuals who impose such costs on taxpayers also deserve to be penalized as free-riders?

If this sort of penalty is a step to universal health care, then I suppose we should take similar "progressive" steps, like fining special education students for not having special insurance to cover their higher cost of education.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jerryengelbach
Working class heritage
01:19 PM on 07/03/2012
Your extrapolation is almost right.

Those who can't afford adequate food can get Food Stamps.

Education in the United States is a right, and through high school it's free.

Homeless shelters exist for those who cannot afford a place to live.

Health care is a primary responsibility of society because it is a direct matter of life and death.

People who cannot afford health insurance will not be penalized.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
JPJABBER
'twas brillig and the slithey tode...
01:59 PM on 07/03/2012
And the Repubs want to take all THAT away, too.
02:05 PM on 07/03/2012
Who are you to decide what people can afford? The extra tax could be the difference between being able to save for a child's education or not. The difference between expanding a business to be able to hire next year or not. The difference between braces for the kids or a dental crown or not. This arbitrary concept of "affording" insurance is completely subjective and thoughtless. Even the impact on the overall economy will be felt. 4-5 million people having an additional $2k or more removed from their spending and put into the general fund? And what about the insurance companies being forced to cover all the pre-existing conditions? Do they get that money? No, the government does, it is a tax. This whole thing is foolishness.
02:02 PM on 07/03/2012
But unfortunately this particular law which was passed in 2010 is not a progressive law. It is a conservative law co-opted from the Heritage Foundation. it is loaded with personal responsibility. I byword of conservatism. Truly progressive health care would be single payer like Medicare which, by the way, also required a premium be paid in order to "enjoy" the benefits.
12:55 PM on 07/03/2012
Taxes are the price we pay for government services, not "civilization". Notice the word "civil" in "civilization"?
02:03 PM on 07/03/2012
wrong.
photo
yukonsam
This space reserved for self-referential irony.
12:43 PM on 07/03/2012
You misunderstood. "Personal responsibility" only applies to other people. When you try to make a conservative take responsibility for his actions, that's "burdensome job-killing regulation".
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
JPJABBER
'twas brillig and the slithey tode...
02:01 PM on 07/03/2012
"probably brought on by illegal aliens and the poor who want to push climate change while taking away our guns and the Bible, flag pins and apple pie."
02:06 PM on 07/03/2012
I am already taking personal responsibility. You are trying to make me responsible for other people. That is the difference.
12:38 PM on 07/03/2012
When has personal responsibility ever been important to the Democrat Party? If so, let's apply that to all entitlements. Welfare queens, unemployment slackers, bring it.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Shawn de Montaigne
http://thepiertoforever.webs.com
12:52 PM on 07/03/2012
Stop obfuscating.
02:05 PM on 07/03/2012
(chucke...) this person you just addressed won't know what that word means. goffaw goffaw.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
aeuropeanvoice
the dog ate my micro-bio,sorry
01:02 PM on 07/03/2012
You only managed to explain that it doesn't matter to you.
how weird can you be ?
02:04 PM on 07/03/2012
Wierd enough to be a republican. and that's pretty wierd.