Candidate John McCain gave a truly innovative speech last week that suffered from one fatal flaw. The innovation: cast your speech as a fantasy, looking back from the end of your first term so you can tout all your great accomplishments without the distraction of pesky fact-checkers. The fatal flaw: recent history has shown that his policy agenda is antithetical to his goals. His vision of the future is divorced from his roadmap to get there.
To the contrary, anyone interested in a future that looks quite different from the present, and most Americans are leaning in precisely that direction, needs to remember but one mantra. It's one of the most important arguments progressives can make between now and November, and it's simple, compelling, and unarguably true: we've tried it their way, and it hasn't worked.
Whether it's the economy, the environment, foreign policy, fiscal policy, government competency, judicial fairness... you name it... we've tried it their way, and it hasn't worked.
For this post, let's focus on the economy. We're aided by the fact that we are likely at the end of the economic expansion that began in late 2001, so we can now compare the results from this cycle to previous ones. We're additionally aided by the fact that the work has already been completed by my EPI colleagues Josh Bivens and John Irons. They've done the math, comparing growth rates of all the key variables over this and past cycles.
We'll get to those results in a minute, but consider them in this light: they are the outcome of a natural experiment, one wherein we turned every branch of Federal government, including the judiciary, over to conservatives with a unified vision of the economy. I describe the vision as YOYO (you're on your own) economics, though you're free to amend it to "you're on your own unless you've got friends in high places... in that case, you can plunder the treasure." For the rest, it's "here's a tax cut, a private program, some deregulation, and a nudge into the market place to sink or swim."
Note, for example, that McCain's speech revives privatizing Social Security ("personal retirement accounts) as a policy goal. He reforms health care though the injection of more "market forces," as we're all incentivized to go out and shop for health care in the open market, a plan that has the potential to be both expensive and ineffective. And as I pointed out last week in this space, McCain's tax cuts are Bush's on steroids. He begins with extending the Bush cuts (10-year cost: $1.7 trillion), but that's less than a third of the cuts that he's planning. And remember, in the midst of all these cuts, he's got to pay for a lot more war.
So, what are the economic outcomes of this great, neocon experiment? From Bivens and Irons:
Regarding the variables that matter most to working families, the neocon experiment was a particularly dramatic failure. Employment grew one third as fast as the average over the 2000s business cycle and the unemployment rate, though low on average, was higher at the end of the cycle than at the beginning. Perhaps the most damning indictment is this: for the first time on record, going back to the mid-1940s, the income of the typical, middle-income family was slightly lower last year than at the prior peak in 2000 (see their figure A).
The reason, of course, is that the benefits of the economy's growth flowed largely to those at the top of the scale, an outcome long associated with YOYO'ism. In the history of income inequality data going back to 1913, income is now more concentrated among the top 1% of households than in any other year, bar one: 1928.
So there you have it: the great, neo-con economic experiment is over and the results are in. Outside of the top 1%, there's less income growth than in any past business cycle. The key macro-indicators, such as employment, GDP growth, and investment have also faired uniquely poorly. The anti-government, deregulatory agenda has led to fatal incompetence, a massive housing bubble, ailing global credit markets, and near-recessionary growth for the US. The "ownership society" is a cruel joke: homeownership rates are falling for the first time in decades.
The defenders of the status quo will howl in protest: the Democrats blocked us, the terrorist attacks and the war changed everything, we must stay the course to victory! But such rhetoric should be dismissed as what it is: the last, desperate gasps of a dying movement.
They've had their turn and they've failed. It is our turn now.
It must be obvious by now that to win the Presidency, John McCain is committed to politics of fear. His speech to the National Restaurant Association May 18 is a replay of George W. Bush. McCain said that staying 100 years in Iraq “…would be fine with me as long as Americans are not being injured or harmed or wounded or killed.” How could a serious candidate make such a reckless statement? There will not be a bridge standing in the United States, nor a laboratory in operation, nor a child in school after 100 years of making enemies in the Middle East. McCain also ties himself to Bush with steel cable by promising to continue a policy of borrow and spend, which means that taxes first must pay lenders, and transfer citizens’ wealth into the hands of large investors in Federal notes, including China. And who makes money from war? Fear is the enemy of reason, and truth is still a main casualty of war.
Today Kentucky and Oregon have a choice: War and fear or negotiation and work for a better future. As President, Barack Obama will end the thriftless spending on a war he never supported, prepare and negotiate with enemies whose interests can be aligned with ours, and focus our spending on new manufacturing and education. I choose hope. Please strengthen our nominee.
-Obama believes that teachers should NOT be teaching to the standardized test which is what has been happening. Teachers should not be forced to spend the academic year preparing students to fill in bubbles on standardized tests. Obama will reform NO CHILD LEFT BEHIND, and he will improve the assessments used to track student progress to measure readiness for college and the workplace and improve student learning in a timely, individualized manner. Obama will also improve NO CHILD LEFT BEHINDs accountability system so that we are supporting schools that need improvement, rather than punishing them.
- Obama will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq. He will remove one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months.
- Obama believe that Afghanistan is where we should be fighting a battle because it is in that country is where the Taliban, and where AlQueada are still getting stronger. Bush ignored Afghanistan resulting in AlQueada and the Taliban become stronger in Afghanistan.
- McCain has NO plans to deal with Iran, he does not want to talk to them, and he does not want to bomb them, so he has ZERO plan of dealing with Iran, and that is stupid, and dangerous!
And what happened in 1913, on Dec 23rd? Or is that post hoc reasoning ...
Do you really want to see a return to the conditions of the 1830, for instance? Children working underground 13 hours a day for pennies? No minimum wage? No safety regulations for workers? "Iron Law of Wages?"
Better read up on what life was like for the "average" American before income tax became the means of redistribution of wealth. Unless you are filthy rich, I'm sure it will be an eye-opener for you.
I find it odd that while it's true there are lazy Americans who believe in entitlement they are in both extremes of our economy. From the entitled rich to entitled poor, those extremes seem to think they should be handed tax breaks, leisure living and few responsibilities. Then there are the ever growing working poor and the ever shrinking, struggling middle class. They love to define themselves through their work and sacrifice. They are the backbone, the real one, of this country, the one's who defined our national work ethic that, at one time, was the highest in the industrialized world.
It is they who have been betrayed by glib sarcasm of folks like you, redeyes, and the greedy profiteers who have all but destroyed their ability to make an honest life for themselves. My hope is that once you come crawling back a job that you have to struggle the way those more hopeful and more honest about their situation have had to.
I'd say good luck but then you've proven you don't deserve the sentiment.
1. What was the purpose of the "temporary" tax cuts in 2001/3 passed for TEN years?
2. This meant that when the "temporary" expired, the cuts became permanent?
Only politicians of all stripes would rely on such gimmickry to fool all of the people all of the time!
2) No, technically the cuts are supposed to expire 10 years after they were created, and that means that the rates would go up at that time. McBush is trying to make them permanent, and Obama and Hillary are trying to get rid of them BEFORE the 10 year mark!
We still are at positive growth rate (small).
Now tell me what YOU are doing for yourself economically, that will help yourself, and will also help others?
You want government to have all the answers, but it really starts for you!
Turns out our health care is so hot after all. We rank 19th of 19 in preventable deaths in this country. We also have the 2nd worst mortality rate for newborns in the developed world.
And we are not the most weathly per captia:
Richest Countries in the World
Rank Country GDP - per capita
1 Luxembourg $ 68,800
2 Equatorial Guinea $ 50,200
3 United Arab Emirates $ 49,700
4 Norway $ 47,800
5 Ireland $ 43,600
6 United States $ 43,500
7 Andorra $ 38,800
8 Iceland $ 38,100
9 Denmark $ 37,000
10 Austria $ 35,500
Source: CIA World Factbook
And as for the best food in the world, maybe so, but the safety of that food is questionable: http://www.rwjf.org/newsroom/newsreleasesdetail.jsp?productid=28851
And the highest standard of living does not go to the U.S. - We, in fact, ranked 8th in 2006
http://www.dalgety.sk/en/australia/
Australia was in 2006 ranked number three by the United Nations Human Development Index, as one of the best countries in the world to live in. The United Nations HDI is a standard means of measuring well-being.
Norway
Iceland
Australia
Ireland
Sweden
Canada
Japan
United States of America
Switzerland
Netherlands
How sad for you.
He also conveniently ignores that 1980-92 were run by conservative economics, as were many of the presidencies prior to that (Eisenhow, Nixon).. heck, even Kennedy cut taxes quite a bit.
He might be conveniently ignoring the fact that government spending is the root of the problem, a problem that the Democrats have shown themselves particularly good at carrying forward (farm bill, anyone?)
Get real Obama will kill what is left of the economy and Middle class America!!
Social Security tax increases: not even on the table, please stop lying
Higher gas taxes: these pay for minor details, like BRIDGES!!!
Capital Gains tax increases: please explain how this will even AFFECT the middle and lower classes, since they aren't the ones paying this tax?????????????
McCain Defends 'Enron Loophole'
The Public Record
May 19, 2008
Sen. John McCain says he opposes the $307 billion farm bill because it would dole out wasteful subsidies, but his chief economic adviser Phil Gramm also wants to stop its proposed regulation of energy futures trading, a market that was famously abused when Enron Corp. manipulated California’s electricity prices in 2001.
Clearing the way for that California price gouging, Gramm, as a powerful Texas senator in 2000, slipped an Enron-backed provision into the Commodities Futures Modernization Act that exempted from regulation energy trading on electronic platforms.
It's time to clean house and rid both parties of the people who sell us out for 30 pieces of silver.