A broadly positive jobs report just out for March shows that payrolls were up by 192,000 and both the labor force and weekly hours worked grew as well. The jobless rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent, but the closely watched labor force participation rate popped up two-tenths to 63.2 percent, as about 500,000 entered the labor market. Taken together, that's actually a good sign implying more people are being pulled into an expanding labor market.
With today's report, private sector employment has finally regained its pre-recession peak. Private payrolls peaked in January 2008, bottomed out in February 2010, and have added 8.9 million jobs since then. That means it has taken more than six years (Jan '08 - Mar '14) for private sector jobs to recover, an extremely stark reminder of the depth of the downturn and the weakness of what's been a plodding labor market recovery. And remember, simply getting the level of jobs back to where it was does not account for the growth of the working age population over this period. This milestone, while welcome, only symbolizes repairing the damage.
Also, government employment is still over 500,000 jobs down since the recession began in late 2007 and thus total employment remains about 400,000 below its pre-recession level.
Turning back to the March data, payroll gains of the prior two months were both revised up, adding a total of just under 40,000 jobs to the counts for Jan and Feb. That means that the first quarter averaged payroll gains of 178,000 per month, slightly below the average for last year of 194,000.
The uptick in weekly hours also indicates both some strengthening in labor demand and, if it sticks, should confirm suspicions that recent declines in weekly hours were driven partly by the distortionary impact of unusually cold weather on these data.
Job growth was wide-spread across industries, though manufacturing disappointed, down 1,000 last month and up only 72,000 over the year. While the sector accounts for about 9 percent of total employment, it only accounts for less than 4 percent of the job growth over the past year. Strengthening the factory sector, particularly through focusing on improving net exports, should remain a key policy goal.
It's particularly important to watch wage growth right now for a number of reasons. It's been an unbalanced recovery, with most of the growth eluding working families. This dynamic, in turn, holds back broader consumer spending and serves as a constraint on the recovery. Third, the Federal Reserve is carefully watching the wage picture for signs of any incipient pressure from the job market.
Over the past year, both average hourly pay and weekly earnings have been growing at about 2 percent (in March, they both grew 2.1 percent). That's ahead of inflation, which most recently has been quite tame, generally tracking below 2 percent on a yearly basis. That steady pace also provides no evidence of growing labor market pressures that would bleed into wage or price inflation.
In sum, the toplines from today's report reveal a labor market that continues to improve at a steady, though by no means a gangbuster, pace. We've finally repaired the damage, at least regarding private sector payrolls. Most industries, with the possible and notable exception of manufacturing, are expanding, employers may be expanding the average workweek a bit, and wage growth is steady, not that fast, and not accelerating.
Though there's certainly no trend there yet, the labor force grew last month, and if that keeps up, it will be an important sign that we're finally pulling more job-market-sideliners back into the game.
But there's still a lot of slack in the workplace and a long way to go until there's enough pressure/worker-bargaining-power to ensure a more equitable distribution of the fruits of growth.
This post originally appeared at Jared Bernstein's On The Economy blog.
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
It's Another Trump-Biden Showdown — And We Need Your Help
The Future Of Democracy Is At Stake
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
Your Loyalty Means The World To Us
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
The 2024 election is heating up, and women's rights, health care, voting rights, and the very future of democracy are all at stake. Donald Trump will face Joe Biden in the most consequential vote of our time. And HuffPost will be there, covering every twist and turn. America's future hangs in the balance. Would you consider contributing to support our journalism and keep it free for all during this critical season?
HuffPost believes news should be accessible to everyone, regardless of their ability to pay for it. We rely on readers like you to help fund our work. Any contribution you can make — even as little as $2 — goes directly toward supporting the impactful journalism that we will continue to produce this year. Thank you for being part of our story.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
It's official: Donald Trump will face Joe Biden this fall in the presidential election. As we face the most consequential presidential election of our time, HuffPost is committed to bringing you up-to-date, accurate news about the 2024 race. While other outlets have retreated behind paywalls, you can trust our news will stay free.
But we can't do it without your help. Reader funding is one of the key ways we support our newsroom. Would you consider making a donation to help fund our news during this critical time? Your contributions are vital to supporting a free press.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our journalism free and accessible to all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. Would you consider becoming a regular HuffPost contributor?
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. If circumstances have changed since you last contributed, we hope you'll consider contributing to HuffPost once more.
Support HuffPostAlready contributed? Log in to hide these messages.