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Jared Bernstein

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Medicare and the Downgrade

Posted: 08/08/11 02:08 PM ET

S&P's downgrade "analysis" makes it clear that we need to "contain" the growth of entitlements. EG, in discussing their displeasure with the budget plan, they note:

...the plan envisions only minor policy changes on [sic] Medicare and little change in the other entitlements, the containment to which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.

Now, look at the below list of countries that both maintain a triple-A rating from S&P (though some are on their downgrade watchlist) and have some version of universal health coverage, in other words, an "entitlement" that goes much further than anything we've got over here.

2011-08-08-hthcare_aaa2.png
Source: Huffington Post


That doesn't imply Medicare is on solid footing. But the problem is the growing cost of health care system wide (in fact, cost pressures are worse in the private sector), and the solutions exist in every other advanced economy, as they essentially cover their whole populations and do so for about half of what we spend relative to GDP.

Yet, S&P needs to see cuts in Medicare if we want our triple-A rating back.

Now, I really don't need to see the rating agencies get into the analysis of comparative international health systems. I'd be content if they did a better job on stuff like, oh...I don't know...mortgage back securities.

But if they're going to make judgments like this, then they should do it right. An honest analysis of fiscal sustainability would point toward a larger, not smaller, role for publicly provided health coverage.

This post originally appeared at Jared Bernstein's On The Economy blog.

 
 
 
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This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
01:30 AM on 08/10/2011
Universal health care can be implemented using insurance companies, as Japan, Germany, and Switzerland have done:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/sickaroundtheworld/countries/
Five Capitalist Democracie­s & How They Do It | Sick Around The World | FRONTLINE | PBS

Many people are thinking of Britain's socialized health care when they hear "universal health care".
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
10:54 AM on 08/09/2011
The U.S. job-based healthcare system is costing jobs...

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/25/opinion/25krugman.html
Toyota, Moving Northward - New York Times

"...But education is only one reason Toyota chose Ontario. Canada's other big selling point is its national health insurance system, which saves auto manufactur­ers large sums in benefit payments compared with their costs in the United States.

You might be tempted to say that Canadian taxpayers are, in effect, subsidizin­g Toyota's move by paying for health coverage. But that's not right, even aside from the fact that Canada's health care system has far lower costs per person than the American system, with its huge administra­tive expenses. In fact, U.S. taxpayers, not Canadians, will be hurt by the northward movement of auto jobs.

To see why, bear in mind that in the long run decisions like Toyota's probably won't affect the overall number of jobs in either the United States or Canada. But the result of internatio­nal competitio­n will be to give Canada more jobs in industries like autos, which pay health benefits to their U.S. workers, and fewer jobs in industries that don't provide those benefits. In the U.S. the effect will be just the reverse: fewer jobs with benefits, more jobs without.

So what's the impact on taxpayers? In Canada, there's no impact at all: since all Canadians get government­-provided health insurance in any case, the additional auto jobs won't increase government spending..­."
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
11:36 AM on 08/09/2011
The Deficit Commission is considerin­g the eliminatio­n of the tax deduction for job-based health insurance:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/28/health-care-tax-break-deficit_n_788852.html
Job-Based Health Care Threatened

"WASHINGTO­N — Job-based health care benefits could wind up on the chopping block if President Barack Obama and congressio­nal Republican­s get serious about cutting the deficit.

Budget proposals from leaders in both parties have urged shrinking or eliminatin­g tax breaks that help make employer health insurance the leading source of coverage in the nation and a middle-cla­ss mainstay.

The idea isn't to just raise revenue, economists say, but finally to turn Americans into frugal health care consumers by having them face the full costs of their medical decisions.

[snip]

Repealing the tax break would raise several hundred billion dollars a year, depending on how it's done. Many economists believe employers would boost pay if they didn't provide health care..."

Anyone who thinks employers would boost pay to compensate is delusional­.
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Parkite
Still haven't found what I'm looking for
01:28 PM on 08/09/2011
Economists are delusional to think that medical consumers will be able to make informed decisions based on the costs of medical procedures b/c every medical procedure whether in a hospital, clinic or office has a different price based on whether or not you are insured and which insurance company is paying the cost, even whether it is in network, out of network, PPO or HMO, and the list goes on. And how do you negotiate when you go to the hospital's ER with a massive coronary? Or they say expensive surgery, or we have to amputate your arm or leg, who's the surgeon? Health care is very complex. It is not buying a widget off a self or a car off a car lot.
02:23 AM on 08/09/2011
I would take the same list, cross out 'has universal healthcare', and write in 'has balanced budget or fiscal responsibility legislation or is practicing de facto balanced budgeting that limits amount of debt that can be taken out and used to spend on wealth transfers i the medium-to-long-term'

By the way, you left off a few countries that have triple AAA that do not have universal health care and some, like Hong Kong and Singapore that just let open and free markets provide the solution
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
11:00 AM on 08/09/2011
http://www.moh.gov.sg/mohcorp/hcsystem.aspx
Ministry of Health: Healthcare System

"...Singapore Healthcare System

Our healthcare system comprises public and private healthcare, complemented by rising standards of living, housing, education, medical services, safe water supply and sanitation, and preventive medicine.

Over the years, MOH has followed the principle of ensuring that good and affordable basic medical services are available to all Singaporeans. We have been continuously fine-tuning our system to ensure we are always aligned with this principle and developed our healthcare system into one that has received praise and recognition both locally and internationally.

MOH would like to share some of the accolades received for our healthcare system.

Philosophy

Singapore healthcare begins with building a healthy population through preventive healthcare programmes and promoting a healthy lifestyle.

Good, affordable basic healthcare is available to Singaporeans through subsidised medical services at public hospitals and clinics. Our hospitals and healthcare system will never withhold help to a Singaporean because of financial limitations. Yet our philosophy promotes individual responsibility towards healthy living and medical expenses. Medisave, Medishield, ElderShield and Medifund schemes exist to help Singaporeans “co-pay” their medical expenses.

Primary Healthcare

Primary health care includes preventive healthcare and health education. Private practitioners provide 80% of primary healthcare services while government polyclinics provide the remaining 20%. However, public hospitals provide 80% of the more costly hospital care with the remaining 20% by private hospital care...."
01:16 AM on 08/10/2011
So what you are saying is....not a universal health care system. Great. Thanks for making my point for me. Every developed country has some system of public or subsidized health in place.

Again, thansk for your support. You have backed up so many points of mine in the past, I am thinking that you must be one of the biggest free market proponents in the world. hansk again.

As an aside, Singapore clinics are known as one of the best places for transgender operations. Apparently the price-quality combo is quite good and they attract a lot of people from Thailand. This is a great example signals through pricing affecting supply and demand. Free markets work!

Kai
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Parkite
Still haven't found what I'm looking for
01:35 PM on 08/09/2011
Both Hong Kong & Singapore have a mis of public and private health care systems.
Every working person in Singapore (Singapore Permanent Resident/ Singapore Citizen) and the self-employed are obliged by Singaporean law to make a payment to Medisave from their CPF (Central Provident Fund) account. These Medisave funds are used to pay for hospital expenses for the contributor as well as their dependents. These dependents have to be permanent residents or Singaporean citizens and can be a spouse, a child, a parent, or grandparent.
01:28 AM on 08/10/2011
Parkite:

I did not say that they did not have public health care at all. I said that they did not have universal health care and that their markets are open meaning that I can just show up and start working as a doctor assuming I have graduated from a recognized medical system, even if that school was in the states. In the US, the markets are cartelized. There is no shortage of ably trained doctors and nurses that would love to come to the States and work and that would bring the price down.

A friend of mine, graduated at the top of her class from Spain’s best medical school, and was a heart doctor in Brazil for 12 years. She got married to my best friend who lives in Phoenix (where I lived spend a good part of my young adult life) and has been waiting 4 years to get accredited just to get an entry level job in a US hospital. She is fluent in Spanish and willing to work emergencies in some of the rougher neighborhoods…but no dice. If she wasn’t married to an American she would have no choice.

In Hong Kong, where live now, the review takes a few weeks…and you are fine to practice. As a result, healthcare here is so cheap I d not even use my insurance. Just not worth it to fill out the forms.

My point is that the author was being misleading.

Kai
alunsulen
Digging the liberal hatred!
10:20 PM on 08/08/2011
Add a measure of public debt to your table and you will see why US is no longer AAA.
10:16 PM on 08/08/2011
"Good health" is the RIGHT of every human being in the 21st century. Why? Because we have the technology and trained doctors to supply this. And across the Western world (no, not just western USA.....the whole world!!) we want to share this.
Why is it still seen to be an unobtainable goal in the United States of America? Why do politicians and some citizens here try to represent the "socialised" model of health care that the rest of the western world has adopted successfully for decades, as undesirable? Could it be because the USA has become governed by plutocrats/dictators etc etc...i.e. business men and politicians who care only about their own bank accounts......who tell you that health care is something you have to earn!
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Michael Dadtka
10:10 PM on 08/08/2011
Obama made pledges during his run for the presidency and his first year in office for universal health care coverage based on the Medicare model. Then he backked off due to the Tea Baggers "death panel" debacle.
Now he is dangling a carrot at the Tea Baggers of Medicare so he can get taxation of the rich ( job creators.)
He is taking the position of a college proffessor, not some one in the real world. No one cares if he takes the high road by comprimise with people who will not budge a centimeter.
We need to let him know that there should be a liberal line in the sand and that WE WILL NOT BUDGE! Leave Medicare alone.
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jstrate
09:01 PM on 08/08/2011
Health care, whether private or public, is a sacred cow. Health care does not equal health. Most of the factors that have to do with health have nothing to do with health care. Are we any healthier today than we were 20 years ago when health care spending was far less? Health care is a leading cause of disability and death in this country. We just pay more for getting that result in this country.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Honest Babe
08:18 PM on 08/08/2011
Health care costs have been projected to reach 50% of GDP by 2050. Because health care is a basic human need, we can't apply the same laws of supply and demand that we do in commerce. Only those who want to profit from the misery of others beleive that we should charge what the market will bear.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
wayne the pain
06:07 PM on 08/08/2011
Makes Obama's sell out of a public option in his (insurance companies dream) health care "reform" really tragic! He must not have an eye on how history is going to remember the first "black president". It will be like Junior Bush's chapters, not pretty!
05:44 PM on 08/08/2011
Has it occurred to anyone that S&P is in bed with someone or group of individuals/companies that might just benefit for the downgrading of the USA's credit rating and the privatization of Medicare/Medicaid? Is there any eager investigative reporter out there that has the guts to tackle this?
NoBlueDogs
FIGHT Offshoring!!!
07:09 PM on 08/08/2011
They'll be written off as conspiracy theorists, just like those who are pursuing even MORE obvious corruption in the case of Clarance Thomas.
06:46 AM on 08/09/2011
It occurred to us--smells of some sort of agenda or payoff.
05:41 PM on 08/08/2011
It is a shame that Obamacare does very little to control costs. A wasted opportunity.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Honest Babe
08:14 PM on 08/08/2011
It's a shame that Congress lets ideology get in the way of sound fiscal policy. I agree with the economic soundness of much of what he has proposed based on review of periods of our history when those ideas were implemented and in seeing how other countries have managed to have a high standard of living when those aspects of life that should not be marketed like soap are provided in a different way.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Miles Mogulescu
04:04 PM on 08/08/2011
In the long-run, the only way to protect Medicare from destruction by the likes of Paul Ryan is to bring US per capita health care costs in line with those of other advanced capitalist countries where costs average 50% of those in the US and health outcomes are better. The only way to accomplish that is through ending the multi-payer private insurance system and joining the rest of the advanced capitalist world by adopting Medicare for All. It may not pass right away, but neither will Ryan's plan. Democrats and liberals need to think long-run, like Republicans do, and start talking about long-run solutions such as Medicare For All now. See my recent Huffpo article: "The Solution to the Federal Debt: Expand Medicare, Don't Cut It" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/miles-mogulescu/federal-debt-medicare-cuts_b_900232.html
02:30 PM on 08/08/2011
Some say our health care costs 2 times as much as it does in other countries.

Most people don't like to go to the doctor. Now Ryan and his ilk want to make us pay the first $5,000 to inhibit us going to the doctor or getting medical care.

Medicare eligibility age should be left at 65. Anything else is a big gift to insurance companies. If the Medicare eligibility age is moved up that gives that many more years that the health insurance companies can get premiums and keep us from getting health care by overcharging.

Raising early retirement and full retirement for Social Security will be a big cut. Every year you don't retire that is more money you are paying in to the programs and not drawing out.

Raising any of the ages in Medicare and Social Security is a big cut in benefits. You will be paying in more for two years and drawing benefits for a shorter period of time.
06:51 AM on 08/09/2011
Medicare age is 65 for everyone (right now)--it is only SS that lets you start collecting at 62. Raising the age for Medicare just leaves more people without health insurance for longer if they are unemployed--again just shifting costs and not solving the real problem.
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SteveM39
No more Regressive Taxes!
02:08 PM on 08/08/2011
Very timely.

If we as a people can not afford Medicare for our seniors when everyone chips in, how do we expect to pay for healthcare for ourselves?

If we can't afford Medicare, we can't afford health care.

Even before the new bankruptcy laws, health care costs were a factor in over 80% of bankruptcies. Our healthcare system is like Russian Roulette with our household finances and our lives and limbs on the line.

A major contributor to the demise of the middle class is Health care costs (HCC). HCC are traditionally covered by employers. If you have a union job, your union has battled hard to keep those costs from increasing for their members. So the employers have had to cover those exploding costs. HCC are a large reason for the attack on unions and the outsourcing of jobs overseas.

If you aren't in a union, your comapany has been passing HCC through to you and so, maybe you get a raise, but your contribution to your health insurance has wiped that out and then some.

We always say, look at Europe, how do their companies survive higher tax rates? One reason is because they don't pay for healthcare. Why do we force American companies to act as health care insurance brokers? It is especially troublesome for small businesses. If you want to eliminate a huge weight around the neck of US companies? Get them out of healthcare.

And if you want to save costs, get into single payer.
02:47 PM on 08/08/2011
SteveM39 says....."We always say, look at Europe, how do their companies survive higher tax rates?"

Uh, you might want to check out Europe's corporate tax rates.....without fail, they're lower than ours. You can check everything from 2007 - 2011.

http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_GX/global/services/tax/8dd894e1f382e210VgnVCM1000001a56f00aRCRD.htm

As far as saving costs for medical care via single payer? No thank you. I'd prefer paying more for the higher quality medical care and choices that I have here. No-where has single payer been an unqualified success or provided everyone with either prompt or quality care.
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SteveM39
No more Regressive Taxes!
03:46 PM on 08/08/2011
Thank you for taking the time to check that. Unfortunately, it is more complex than the Deloitte table. You have to compare effective rates and also take into account the fact that the US is the only modern economy that doesn't have a value added tax. I had thought I had written Germany so you are right that most corporate taxes in Europe are lower. Germany's is higher although not in respect to GDP but that is the opposite in most of Europe.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-14/u-s-companies-pay-world-s-sixth-highest-tax-rate-study-finds.html

But you would agree that having employers administer health insurance is burdensome and inefficient?

There is no reason we can't have both unlimited luxury private care and efficient yet effective universal care for the rest of us. If I can't afford the world's greatest heart surgeon, that's fine but let me be able to afford some schlock at least.

"No-where has single payer been an unqualifie­d success or provided everyone with either prompt or quality care. "

No place is perfect but most places are much better than here and certainly for the bottom 90%. The top 10% will always be able to take care of themselves. We need a health care system that works for the rest of us. We get sick and injured too.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Awake-and-Sing
named after a great play written by Clifford Odets
05:44 PM on 08/08/2011
You've never lived in Europe as I have.

I never saw any long lines or anyone not able to get the care they needed.

When you have real life experience you don't need Fox "News" or Rush Limbaugh to tell you what to think.

You only have higher quality medicare care in America if you are superwealthy and can afford to buy it on demand.
02:06 PM on 08/08/2011
Taxes on corporations in all those countries are lower than they are here as well. While those countries have "universal" healthcare their citizens also pay more out of pocket. 50% of all medical care is currently paid by the government in the US. 50% and yet they are not part of the problem? Our per capita government spending on healthcare is third. Do we solve the problem by simply directing the same money to pay for everyone's care? Though this is largely a misdirection. Can one really blame our fiscal situation on not enough government programs? Seems like a drug addict thinking his problems will be fixed if he simply takes more drugs.