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Jared Bernstein

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We're All Ears, Mr. President

Posted: 07/15/11 10:05 AM ET

I'm getting whiplash trying to follow all the twists and turns in the debt ceiling/budget showdown as each day brings a new lurch in policy.

A big plan...a grand bargain! -- a small plan... clean McConnell (i.e., Mitch McConnell's "you're on your own, Mr. President")... dirty McConnell (not a pleasant image, I know... read on).

To get organized regarding what's transpired over the past few weeks along one dimension -- the share of revenues and spending cuts in the various deals -- I made the graphic below.

2011-07-15-budg_deals.png
Source: My memory...


Here's what stands out to me:

  • Keep in mind the historical context: in the last four major deficit reduction plans, revenues were between about 40% and 80% of the deals (and the 80% was President Reagan's Deficit Reduction Act, 1984!).
  • The president started out where the Fiscal Commission was,2 of spending cuts to1 of revenue (and1 in lower interest payments excluded from the bars-4 trillion total over 12 years).
  • A couple of the plans were 50/50.
  • The President has consistently and dramatically moved toward the Republican demand to lose the revenues.


His 2/3, 1/3 got whittled down to the point where conservative columnist David Brooks called this "the deal of the century" for the Republicans: "trillions of dollars in spending cuts in exchange for a few hundred billion dollars of revenue increases."

And still they would not budge.

Now, rumor has it, he's offered a new deal: drop your dollar-for-dollar demand that deficit savings equate to the dollar increase in the ceiling, and I'll lose the revenues (this is "dirty McConnell" -- under the clean version, the R's get to keep their fingerprints (i.e., votes) off of the debt ceiling increase, but the spending cuts are non-binding... under this version, they're binding).

And still they would not budge.

As I've said from the very beginning, there is no negotiation here. One side is bending over backwards... too much so, if that last bar is correct... to avoid default and make a dent in the deficit. The other side is checked out.

Those who've read my work know that I deeply fear the wholly and easily avoided consequences of failing to raise the debt ceiling. I've not even entertained the possibility because I can't believe it could happen -- that elected officials could so dramatically abrogate their responsibilities. And I still don't think we'll default.

But let's get real here. You cannot negotiate with people who refuse to do so. In that case, with the stakes this high, you have to call them out and, as the president allegedly said, "take the case to the American people."

Take it to us, sir. We're all ears.

This post originally appeared at Jared Bernstein's On The Economy blog.

 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Vic22
"I write to make it right, don't like what I see"
12:33 PM on 07/17/2011
I think its kind of funny that he made that graph using excel
nothingchanges
too soon old, too late smart
08:56 PM on 07/16/2011
Fixing the deficit would be easy, if the decisions were based on facts, rather than special interests money, or political gamesmanship.

FACT. Taxes in the US are currently at record low levels, The lowest in the past 60 years. http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/are-taxes-in-the-u-s-high-or-low/

FACT. The highest tax rate in US history was during WW2....94%
The average tax rate paid by those in the US making over 1 million a year today?...............16.8%

FACT. The biggest determining factor in deficit spending has historically been war. In 1944 we hit our all time high deficit spending mark of 24% of GDP, compared to 13% today.

FACT. The war in Afghanistan is now the longest running war in US history.

The facts are plain for anyone to see, for those that care to look. Historically low taxes (especially on the top end) and THREE wars over oil, that didn't need to be.

The solution is equally obvious, cuts where needed (ill advised military involvement over oil) and addressing the tax code to make it simpler, easier, and more fair and equitable to all.

Why not? Because our two party system no longer functions. Both work for those that pay for their campaigns.........not us, and not the United States of America.
11:28 AM on 07/16/2011
perhaps government should take a hint from how most of the american people are living...a cut in pay, downsize in home, no more luxuries and spending only on necessities.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
quillerm
11:16 AM on 07/16/2011
Any comparisons with Reagan are false, he was faced with defense expenditures to keep our military deterrent in place during the Cold War. That meant over 3 million people in uniform, a massive Navy, thousands of ICBM's and support facilities, maintaining a early warning network in the Arctic Region, thousands of bombers and crews, etc. When Reagan brought an end to the Cold War, his successor President Clinton reaped the benefits of cutting defense spending by billions. The takeover of the House and Senate by Republicans and their Welfare to Work strategy also put millions to work that would have remained on the Dole. Bush had to deal with a 2 Trillion loss due to 9/11 and the massive resulting security buildup. Obama only problems are his destructive economic policies?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mabinog
My micro-bio is a desolate wasteland
01:46 PM on 07/16/2011
ah yes the conservative delusion that defense can never be cut.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
quillerm
04:57 PM on 07/18/2011
If Obama wants troops and other military resources for Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Taiwan, Korean Peninsula, Central America, among other areas in which our military are on duty, it's going to cost a few bucks.
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TomTheSeal
Represent our wishes; best interests are arguable
11:15 AM on 07/16/2011
Odd, isn't it ? The policies and spending of the R party cause a financial meltdown, and then, having severely crippled our nation and its economy, they now want to finish the job and push it over the side.

Make no mistake, America is in borderline depression status as it is.

Get ready for The Great Depression II. Get ready to kick these billionaire apologists out of office.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
IamGerry
Socialist-type zen greatgrandmother
11:13 AM on 07/16/2011
I don't know what 'taking it to the people' would do. We do not vote in congress and the next election is over a year away.

If the republicans are so hot to clear the deficit, they should donate back 25% of their salaries. I haven't heard any of them talking about that. They are a big waste of money anyway. We pay them to go to DC and represent us, but they go there and court the lobbyists, collecting money for their reelection so they can lie to us and do it again.

Besides, they regularly vote themselves raises, even though our economy is flat and wages are about the same as they were in 1980.

They have great healthcare and we get arguments about medicare and medicaid or turndowns from our self-serving insurance companies who are trying to get every penny they can from us.

We have no protection and are at their mercy and have to wait until 2012 to do anything about it. Then we can vote in another bunch who will do the same thing.

Maybe I sound cynical, but after 70 years I have the right to be. I learned the hard way.
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TomTheSeal
Represent our wishes; best interests are arguable
11:18 AM on 07/16/2011
IamGerry,

You DO sound cynical. And accurate.

Get ready for The Great Depression II.
Gasparilla
buy your local newspaper
11:00 AM on 07/16/2011
I'm very sympathetic to the idea of ending deficit spending, always have been. I was very wary of the stimulus because I thought a lot of it would just end up lost in useless government spending. So IF the republicans want a balanced budget amendment, I'm all ears. But what they need to do is propose a balanced budget and say where they will cut and how they will do it without raising taxes [I say reset to the Clinton rates] and how they will do it without ending these two useless wars [ten years on and we are still "training" them to defend themselves?] and this bloated military that has us spending as much as the rest of the world combined.
10:50 AM on 07/16/2011
Most of the posts here are conflating the issue over the debt ceiling. The issue basically reduces to this. Congress has obligated the US Government to do perform a number of tasks that cost money. Without raising the debt ceiling, the US will default on these obligations. Should the US default, it would result in a complete disruption of civil order. In other words, people will say if the US can default on its obligations, so can I.

There is a single reason why the US continues to go deeper and deeper in debt, regardless of who is President or who is in congress. The reason for the continued debt is the Federal Reserve. All money in the US comes from the Fed, a private institution. All money created by the Fed is created out of thin air, and incurs a debt. All money paid back to the Fed is this original debt money, plus interest. Since all money is created out of the original debt, there is no extra money to pay back the interest, so the government incurs new debt to pay the interest. In other words, the system is rigged so that the Federal Reserve loans more and more money, with larger and larger interest payments.

We need to audit the Fed.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
balloonloon
Purveyor of cool hot air...
10:36 AM on 07/16/2011
Thank you for this great posting. "... So, take it to us, sir. We're all ears..." I'm definitely holding my breathe on this one--til blue in the face!
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10:30 AM on 07/16/2011
and more spending and debt is NOT the solution to a spending and debt problem. cut spending! start with congressional salaries and benefits. start with stopping legislating everything for us while exempting themselves. start with cutting non essential spending. if no one can agree on what to cut, cut everything 5% every year til the national debt is paid off and the budget is balanced. stop playing power games in Washington. and if they won't stop, let's vote out every incumbent, every election, every time just to take back the power. or demand the congressional reform act of 2011 to make it an honor to "serve" not a lucrative career.
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12:22 PM on 07/16/2011
No Liz, more revenue is the answer. Raise federal taxes on everyone 5 % per year until the national debt is paid off. And let's raise Congresspersons' salaries 5% every year until they don't have to take any money from lobbyists to get re-elected.
(BTW I am perfectly aware that my answers are as silly as yours are).
10:29 AM on 07/16/2011
The Pragmatist Obama May understand that to cut the debt he must cut spending. The Obama/Bush tax cuts sunset in 2012 and solve the debt bomb. He might realize that a growing economy will add revenues to the treasury and those cuts proposed to medicare, (to those 50 and under), may never happen due to the increased tax base. He may just have shed his progressive skin and wants to mimic Bill Clinton.
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10:27 AM on 07/16/2011
both parties in congress set us on this default path a long time ago. they could have changed direction, reversed direction many times. they chose not to. they chose power over revenue. you can thank them.
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Skeptiqone
10:10 AM on 07/16/2011
He did. It was called a press conference...
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Danish Lass
Think before you speak.
10:49 AM on 07/16/2011
Yeah! I saw it too! Maybe we're the only two people who saw it?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
nefertari05
Will not negotiate with tearrorists
10:08 AM on 07/16/2011
The GOTP "my way or the highway" holdouts, ALL voted for the Ryan Plan. The same Ryan Plan that:

Guts medicare, while, at the same time, adding more tax cuts for the rich
Adds $6 TRILLION to the debt over the next ten years, and could not pass a balanced budget amendment, if we had one.
Requires raising the debt limit, more than once.

These are the same folks who seem dead set on driving the US/Global economy off a cliff, over a debt limit they already agreed to pass, when it was required for a budget that one of them wrote. But NOW, the debt ceiling can't be touched, to teach the Federal gov't. to live within it's means? Really???
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02:23 PM on 07/16/2011
It's not about that. It's about defeating Obama in the next election. If the repubs can spin it to make him look bad, they will, even if they have to lie, lie, lie to do it. With the help of Murdoch's empire (Fox News, Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post, they have a large portion of the clueless public who do not want to know the truth.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
nefertari05
Will not negotiate with tearrorists
04:44 PM on 07/16/2011
I know. But the sheer hypocracy and hubris of the whole thing is aggravating in the extreme. F/F for seeing thru the BS!
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mycall8
Spiritual not religious, One Planet, One Humanity
10:07 AM on 07/16/2011
Change is neccesary.

not arguments in the old context

WE CAN DO IT
hope this president can

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dc3sKwwAaCU