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Jared Bernstein

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Governor Perry's Tax Plan...

Posted: 10/25/11 06:09 PM ET

... attacks the following problems head on:

- The tax code is too simple

- Rich people need more after-tax income

- There's too much retirement security in America

- Multinationals aren't creating enough jobs abroad.

How does how he meet these goals?

Under the Governor's plan, you can choose to pay taxes either under the current system or pay a 20% flat tax.

By adding a new tax code to live astride the current one, it adds much complexity to an already too complex system.

Now, as I've argued before, the idea that one rate=simplicity is just false. Under this plan, you still have most of the exemptions, deductions, and credits that create the complexity in the code. And, since you can choose which system to file under, you get to go through the joy of figuring out your tax bill...TWICE! (Three times if you count the Alternative Minimum Tax.)

Let me be crystal clear about this. We could have a system with a hundred different rates that you pay on all your income from any source. Under this system, you'd look up your income in a table and figure out what you owe. It would take less than a minute. In fact, the IRS could probably do it for you.

Or we could have a system with one rate that kept all the myriad income definitions, credits, exemptions, loopholes, etc. of the current system. That's where things get complicated.

Now, it's obvious that under this plan, people will compare their tax bills under the different regimes and choose the one that lowers their payments. That means Gov. Perry either collects less revenue and faces larger budget deficits or has to get the missing revenue elsewhere.

Since, under his new plan, rates are lower at the top (20% vs 35%), and he exempts cap gains and dividends, new revenue will have to come for the middle class (deductions protect the poor). Of course, this means you can't really let people choose anymore, so either there's no internal logic here or we lose revenue.

As Kevin Drum observes:

...you sort of have to admire Perry's gimmick of allowing everyone to choose between his plan and the existing income tax. You can almost imagine the conversation: one of his advisors points out that no matter how careful you are, someone will pay more under the new plan. Probably people with low incomes, and you just know the librul media will have a field day with that. "It's regressive! Rick Perry hates the poor!" It'll be a nightmare.


But Perry has a brainstorm! Give everyone a choice! This means that not one single person will pay more under his plan, because they can always choose the old system if they want.

It is perhaps with this in mind that Gov. Perry says he wants to freeze spending at 18% of GDP. The average since 1969 is about 21%. Does anyone outside of the R base think that with our demographics and pressure from health care costs, not to mention climate, income disparity, bubbles and busts, public debt, external threats, and who knows what else, we can have the government we need with a significantly smaller share of revenues?

That there is one of them rhetorical questions.

There are other problems too -- the plan undermines Social Security and incentivizes American firms to invest abroad.

Gov. Perry proposes that we let young people opt out of Social Security, thus breaking the intergenerational contract, eliminating pay-as-you-go, and -- consistent with his position on Soc Sec -- undermining the last guaranteed pension retirees can rely upon.

Then there's the corporate stuff -- repatriation and transition to territorial. The former lets multinationals bring home deferred earnings at a 5% (!) rate; the latter ends their obligation to pay US taxes on foreign earnings (currently, they're supposed to pay the US the difference between what they paid where they earned the profits and what they owe here). Both will incentivize American firms to expand their overseas operations.

If the itches here are: taxes are too simple, rich people don't have enough money, seniors have too much retirement security, and multinationals are not creating enough jobs abroad, Gov Perry just scratched them all.

This post originally appeared at Jared Bernstein's On The Economy blog.

 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
HonkyTonkMan
05:36 PM on 10/26/2011
Question:

Is there a history of political flack for candidates in their own districts after non-so-successful runs for higher office?

I'm sure there people in Texas and Michelle Bachmann's Minnesota districts who have never been thrilled with their governor / congresswoman. Will their current campaigns negatively effect their current positions and re-election prospects since the broader light cast on them has been less than flattering?
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camelias and sweet tea
Small drinking village with a shrimping problem
05:28 PM on 10/26/2011
Personally, they can talk about their plans until the cows come home...IF and WHEN, or WHENEVER any of these guys became POTUS is too late, we need solutions now, Obama has presented many and he has been obstructed because the TEAvangelicalgop wants him to be a one term President, they are putting Party First, Country last..and Election first..Future of our kids last. Pass the bill NOW
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Bart DePalma
Bart DePalma
09:54 AM on 10/26/2011
"Let me be crystal clear about this. We could have a system with a hundred different rates that you pay on all your income from any source. Under this system, you'd look up your income in a table and figure out what you owe. It would take less than a minute. In fact, the IRS could probably do it for you.

Or we could have a system with one rate that kept all the myriad income definitions, credits, exemptions, loopholes, etc. of the current system. That's where things get complicated."

Or we could have a genuine flat tax with one flat rate with one personal and dependent deduction to remove poverty level income from taxation.

Unlike Mr. Bernstein's preferred "hundred different rates," a true flat tax could actually be filled out on a post card in five minutes.

In this election cycle, the only candidate offering a close approximation to a flat tax is Cain with his 999 plan.
Javalation
Laughing in a Daydream
09:45 AM on 10/26/2011
Are most Americans willing to give up the interest deduction on the family home? Odd that the Republicans don't mention it, even though it has traditionally been the most cherished tax deduction, well next to the kiddies that is.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
skywalk
Socially Liberal & Constructively Financially Cons
08:35 AM on 10/26/2011
This has to be the most ridicules not thought out plan ever suggested by a presidential wanna be (jk Bachman likely said something recently that tops this)! At least there seemed to be some logic with the 9/9/9 plan at first glance (you know 50% of Americans don’t pay Federal taxes, oh yeah they barely make enough money to live, forget about fund their retirement and healthcare). This plan has no purpose but to lower tax rates for the rich & corporations and dismantle social security, the two things most Americans disagree with, the 50% that currently don’t pay Federal income taxes still won’t?
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bdcelina777
Family in America since 1662, before the GOP/TP
08:29 AM on 10/26/2011
Perry could you send me a post card explaining your tax plan if it is so simple.
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Brian Gilmer
Respect the bunny.
08:11 AM on 10/26/2011
How can there truly be an optional tax code if the system is pay as you go. Right now there is enough uncertainty in income and deduction to put a large number of tax payers in penalty range for not having enough money deducted.
02:59 AM on 10/26/2011
We should have everyone file tax return. One possible solution would be to have 20 tax levels (right now there are an infinite number of brackets). Say 2% for those making less than $5000 and 25% for those making over $150,000, with gradations in between (all with no deductions or credits or exemptions, because nobody either rich or poor wants a free ride if there is a viable alternative—just human nature--and the same rate for earned income and dividends). This would provide the desired measuring stick for monthly single payer health care coverage (Medicare for everyone).
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
skywalk
Socially Liberal & Constructively Financially Cons
08:38 AM on 10/26/2011
I think historically there has always been more (tax brackets), I agree if they did that they could get rid of all the deductions and loop holes and just simplify it! If you make this you pay this period! But there might be a lot of unemployed accountants?
01:52 AM on 10/26/2011
The flat tax plans rolled out this year seem to be following the usual republican strategy. That being, it doesn't matter how absurd something is as long as it seems easier than the norm. Its something they are very good at and the democrats are not. The dems will try to defeat the flat tax by rolling out facts about how harmful they really are. However, this will not matter to the repubs target audience.
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08:04 AM on 10/26/2011
why do you support such a corrupt tax code as what we have now? Lobbyists and industry get their power through the existing tax code.

We need change, right or wrong - at least the repubs are discussing it. Where are the dem ideas? People will respond to a good idea - ANY good idea.
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DoubleYellowLines
Left of the Right, and Right of the Left
09:34 AM on 10/26/2011
If Obama is reelected AND there's a shift of power in the House, I'd guess that he brings it up. Bush wanted to work on that in his 2nd term (along with immigration), but his popularity was collapsing. You need a moderately popular President in his 2nd term with enough support in the House to make it work (and having enough Senators on board is a big 'nice to have' item).
11:49 AM on 10/26/2011
The tax code is not corrupt, it's unfair. Obama came out and said we need to change the deductions for corporate jets, etc. So there has been other people (non-Repubs) with ideas that actually make sense. The Repubs are just saying anything so people buy into it. The plans make no sense whatsoever.
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Brian Gilmer
Respect the bunny.
08:17 AM on 10/26/2011
Republicans really think people are idiots. How can you keep deductions and tax credits in place and file taxes on a post card. Republicans continuously talk about using the tax code to deal with all kinds of public policy issues, does ANYONE really believe that Republicans would STOP trying to carve out tax deduction? Republicans would probably mandate the US Postal service to designate any letter smaller than a horse blanket a post card.
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undertheinfluence
POW in my own home country
01:08 AM on 10/26/2011
Can we quit talking about ways to swindle ourselves out of the money we need to pay off the debt incurred by years of abuse by the spendaholics in DC?

We can talk about flat taxes when we've got our national debt down to 5 trillion. If we would stop allowing the MIC to spend half of our revenues, we could be on the road to recovery in no time.

Now. can we talk about how we are going to get 20 milion people back to work so they can pay taxes?
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Brian Gilmer
Respect the bunny.
08:19 AM on 10/26/2011
The way to get 20 million people bad to work is a flat tax. Apparently according to the Republican economic experts the reason that businesses are not hiring is because the tax code it too complicated.
General Washington
In the future, I return as Geddy Lee
12:35 AM on 10/26/2011
This flat tax versus current tax system debate is rather foolish. We already have at least three sets of federal flat taxes, two of which have different means of operation.

The marginal federal flat income taxes (10%, 15%, etc). Yes, there is such a thing as a marginal flat tax. Look it up.

The Social Security flat tax. Doubled if you're self-employed, yet income limited above $107K (thank you very much Ronald Reagan and Congressional Democrats).

And, the Medicare flat tax (see Social Security above, excluding the income limit).

The real problem isn't that we have these particular flat taxes versus another flat tax system. It's that we have a handful of overly broad rates.

The deductions are also more than a bit ridiculous at the upper income levels.

More granularity (i.e. more rates applicable to smaller divisions of income per rate), a larger starting income exemption ($30K is the optimal amount), and fewer deductions (Bernstein suggests some of this right smack in the middle of his article here, by the way) would be a much better idea.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
skywalk
Socially Liberal & Constructively Financially Cons
08:47 AM on 10/26/2011
Why does this “more rates applicable to smaller divisions of income per rate” seem like the obvious solution but no one is talking about it? Oh yeah Washington is broken because it is bought and paid for! I wish that if Obama gets re-elected he pushes to get the money out of politics! Not saying I really think he will but it will only come from a 2nd term president! I agree with your $30K figure, I know that isn’t much in some states or cities but for a majority of America that would be a perfect amount! Come on O’Rielly will quit is multimillion dollar show if Obama raises his rate 3% I think people should be able to try and survive on $30K, giving the other gas, food, property ect taxes they have to pay as well.
08:55 AM on 10/26/2011
exactly General.

which is why I propose Liberals should get behind (and push for) a true flat and fair tax proposal for all americans.


Social security taxes should be on ALL earned income and the rate lowered to 10% from the current 12.4%.

Medicare already is , so no changes needed.

a flat income tax of 20% on ALL income (earned,capital gains, dividends, inheritence, etc). with a standard deduction for everyone of $10K per adult and $5K per child under 18 YO in household.

get rid of all business ' taxes and replace it with a 1% GROSS revenue tax on all business.
for instance GE which made $50 BILLION last year and paid no income tax,would have paid $500 MILLION in taxes.

this plan would bring in more revenue than today and arguably can get federal revenues back up to 18-20% of GDP rather than the current 14% .


tie this tax plan to a proposal to cap spending at 20% of GDP (except in emergencys with a 2/3 vote by congress) and I truely beleive you'd have a program that most middle/.working class people would get behind and support.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Chris Wundrow
11:21 PM on 10/25/2011
Every time I hear Republicans talking about "flat taxes" I get nervous, because as a working class person I know damn well who's going to get screwed--and it won't be the "portly felines" at the top! "Flat" is not necessarily fair, and a lot of people don't necessarily see this--tempted as they are by these plans' deceptive simplicity. (Perry's excepted--it looks to be an unworkable mess, frankly) That's why some of them have exemptions for the first 15 or 20k of income. They would clobber the working poor ( and at the rate things are going, that's what 99% of us are going to end up!) Then add in Cain's 9% sales tax (on top of state sales taxes!) and sales taxes could approach 20% in some places--and automatic 20% price hike on everything at a time when people are damn lucky just to have a job, much less to get a raise! And of course, this clobbers the lower income people the hardest, too, since just about every penny they earn goes right back out the door. In short, these plans hide a vicious regressiveness behind a smiling face.
Zadeekah
Like Sisyphus, it's hopeless but keep trying
10:53 PM on 10/25/2011
Perry is not too bright a fellow. Now, instead of one accountant figuring out my taxes, I'd need three of them, one for the existing system, one for the new system, and one to tell me which way I should go. That's job creation for you. And as usual, the poor would get fleeced out of even more money. Rick's a loser.
Zip Zinzel
If a Nation expects to be both Ignorant & Free . .
10:48 PM on 10/25/2011
GREAT ARTICLE JARED !

=========
But Perry has a brainstorm! Give everyone a choice! This means that not one single person will pay more under his plan, because they can always choose the old system if they want.
======================

Of course, this is a lie, when the Rich and Powerful continue to buy their way to lower and lower taxation-
. . . the rest of us, by necessity, have to pay more
Zip Zinzel
If a Nation expects to be both Ignorant & Free . .
06:24 AM on 10/26/2011
WHAT MR. PERRY IS SUGGESTING IS KNOWN AS
. . . a Free Rider Program for the Rich
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_rider_problem

_
SINCE THE ERA OF REAGAN
. . . the wealthy have been paying less and less of their share
Through quite an number of different tax doges mostly
. . . PROMINENT AMONG THEM, IS CONGRESS's
Willingness to conveniently define their earnings as something other than income

SEE MY PREV POST HERE FOR MORE DETAILS:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Zip_Zinzel/is-poverty-a-death-senten_b_960598_107774956.html

_
NOW PERRY IS TELLING THEM,
. . . that if he is able to, he is going to LET THEM CHOOSE
TO PAY, in most cases, ABSOLUTELY ZERO IN TAXES

Their propaganda campaign has been so successful, that if you listen to CSPAN's morning call-in program, several times each hour you will hear relatively poor people call in saying that they want the government to go to a FLAT or FAIR tax system.
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realsurfin
Pardon me, can you help out a fellow American
08:20 PM on 10/25/2011
DUELING FLAT TAXES... no matter how you look at them they sock the middle class in the gut... and reward the rich for their generous campaign donations. Why do you think the rich need more money... to out buy the vote over the poor and middle class...

the middle class were too powerful... they could not buy the elections... they almost lost to gore but they got Florida to sway their way. After that they went on the war path... what they didn't count on was OBAMA a black man stealing their fire.. and they have been trying to down him any way they can... and to keep themselves in the future... they have to gut the middle class... make them so poor and fearful of just every day life they will not rally to get a fair president. They will not be able to out spend the GOP FUD