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Israel Treading a Familiar Path in Gaza
It seems that Israel is at risk of falling into a familiar trap in Gaza. Subsequent to the 2006 Israeli campaign in Lebanon, Hezbollah quickly rearmed to a level exceeding their pre-war capabilities. Additionally, Hezbollah gained a number of concessions from the western friendly Siniora government thereby strengthening their domestic political position. There is reason to believe that a similar phenomenon could occur with Hamas in Gaza as a result of the path Israel is treading in the current military campaign.
Hamas, like Hezbollah, doesn't shoot rockets from civilian neighborhoods, mosques and UN buildings to deter an Israeli response. They do it precisely because they know Israel most certainly will respond with deadly force. Hamas wants dead Palestinian civilians. It's essential to their strategy. As the dead civilians pile up, it becomes increasingly difficult for regimes in Egypt, Jordan, and even Saudi Arabia to speak ill of Hamas. None of the aforementioned countries view Hamas and their principle sponsors, Iran and Syria, kindly. However, as the death toll mounts it becomes increasingly difficult for western friendly voices in the Arab world to do anything but condemn the disproportionate Israeli aggression. Likewise, every account of Israeli attacks on UN buildings or personal represents a media victory for Hamas. It farther turns international public opinion against the Israeli operation and increases western pressure for a quick cease-fire, something the Israeli government insists it does not want. We're left with the current Israeli leaders echoing the stubborn words of Yitzhak Shamir. In essence, that issues of Israeli national security are of not the business of the international community.
Israel is currently pursuing a strategy that will likely fail to realize their objectives. Even if the current offensive succeeds in temporarily halting rocket fire while Hamas regroups, it may well farther entrench Hamas as the political power in Gaza. If Israel is genuinely interested in pursuing negotiations with an eye towards a two state solution, the first step is the end of Hamas rule in Gaza. A democratic election is the best, if not only way for that to occur. History has proven that collective punishment is not an effective method of eroding Palestinian political bases, and the current war in Gaza will not be an exception. Killing a large number of Palestinian civilians plays into the hand of Hamas, and marginalizes moderate voices in the Palestinian Authority who can't very well march into Gaza following the tread paths of Israeli tanks.
Do Israeli politicians not see this? Are they too stubborn to pursue another track? Do they fear that advocating a significant alteration of Israeli policy would be political suicide? Probably all of the above. While Israel has long held that there is no viable negotiating partner on the Palestinian side, so it seems that there is no Charles de Gaulle on the Israeli side. A politician capable of transcending domestic opposition and wending a different path as de Gaulle did when he extricated France from Algeria 46 years ago. Whatever the reason, the Israeli political arena has yet to produce a politician capable of adequately addressing Israel's share of the responsibility for the cyclical violence that plagues Israel's relationship with the Palestinians.
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All this focus on the rockets perplexes me-Here's why-In the entire 3 years after the withdrawl from Gaza 11 Israelis were killed by rocket fire-This is not a good thing, but on the other hand, in 2005-2007 alone, just 2 years, the IDF killed 1,290 Palestinians in Gaza, 222 of them children-Most of the rockets are short range, homemade, pitiful excuses for a weapon-Even so, the Pals were lobbing them over to the other side at a rate avering 179 per month for the 1st half of 2008-After Egypt negotiated the last ceasefire, that decreased to an average of 3 a month-That 3 weren't being sent by Hamas either, who did a good job of arresting anyone who was sending them & putting them in jail-This was the case for 5 & a half months of the 6 month ceasefire, which Israel broke on November 4th by murdering 6 Hamas members-Until the current Israeli offensive began, there had been no Israeli casualty from a rocket in over a year-
The rockets are just an excuse. The is about the elections next month. Labour's trying to prove how tough they are.
we would be calling the Palestinians Freedom Fighters if they
were not fighting against Israel
Surely Hamas doesn't want lots of dead Palestinian civilians. They may be nasty terrorists, but they're not completely deranged. To discuss this, we need to look at things from their perspective. They want to win. Their goal is an Islamic Palestinian state. They need to win over the Palestinian population to their cause, and they are not going to do that by deliberately sacrificing their own people just to gain publicity.
Actually, they probably do. Strateically, it's a brilliant and time-honoured method for terrorism called sprial violence whereby the terrorists attempt to earn major state retaliation, which subsequently makes the people more pro-terrorist. Hamas to a large extent has won over a tremendous segement of the Palestinian population, just as Hezbollah has done. The more civilians killed by Israeli rockets, the more popular Hamas will be.
I don't believe that Hamas does the things that you assert to be facts. I don't believe that they use civilian areas or mosques or UN schools. UN denies that the UN schools were used in such a way.
I believe that you falsely assert this to rationalize a justification for your behavior. There are many examples of false claims to coverup deliberate actions. There was a US Navy ship supposedly "mistaken for an Egyptian ship' that was "accidentally" attacked.
I believe that civilian areas and civilians are deliberately targeted. Rabbi Dov Lior speaks for a large segment of the population, beyond just extremists in this case, and he said it was what?
I also do not accept that this conflict started when Hamas fired rockets.
I agree... Concerning UNRWA school bombing, the IDF admitted the "means of resposnse" to "the source of the shooting" was "faulty". .. ie, there was no shooting from inside the school. The IDF claims that firing came from a nearby building and that they should have used a more "precise weapon" since they were aware of the location of the school. They chose to use a weapon with a standard deviation of "dozens of meters" in a densely populated area. Under International law, the use of such weapon under the circumstances is prohibited as it does not distinguish between civilian and military targets.
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Hamas does engage with the IDF in civilian areas which I find morally reprehensi
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So tell me Mr. Levy when exactly has peaceful negotiations worked for Israel when dealing with Arabs, Palestinians, terrorists, etc?
Perhaps the Egyptian talks resulting in the return of the Sinai Peninsula? Oh yeah, the Egyptians had to lose a WAR first before they were willing to talk.
When have the Palestinians EVER negotiated peacefully and when have they respected cease fires? I think the answer to that question would be NEVER. Can you prove otherwise?
What exactly do Palestinians want? Do they want Jordan and Syria TOGETHER with Israel to give up some land to form a nation the Palestinians can call home to END this conflict? Are they working diligently through diplomatic means to pursue that goal of PEACE? Do they want to live in peace with their Israeli neighbors? Do they wish to respect Israel's sovereignty and right to exist as a nation?
NO, they don’t want any concessions at all do they? All they really want is the complete destruction of Israel and to perpetuate conflict.
Democracy in Palestine LOL! Name one Arab nation that actually practices TRUE representative democracy and respects the rights of different religions and political views. Keep dreaming Levy. History has already proven you wrong countless times.
So tell me Mr. Levy when exactly has peaceful negotiations worked for Israel when dealing with Arabs, Palestinians, terrorists, etc? WHEN?
The Egyptian talks resulting in the return of the Sinai Penninsula? Oh yeah, the Egyptians had to lose a WAR first before they were willing to talk.
When have the Palestinians EVER negotiated peacefully and when have they respected cease fires? I think the answer to that question would be NEVER. Can you prove otherwise?
What exactly do Palestinians want? Do they want Jordan and Syruia TOGETHER with Israel to give up some land to form a nation the Palestinians can call home to END this conflict? Are they working diligently through diplomatic means to pursue that goal of PEACE? Do they want to live in peace with their Israeli neighbors? Do they wish to respect Israel's sovereignty and right to exist as a nation?
NO, they dont want any concessions at all do they? All they really want is the complete destruction of Israel and to perpetuate conlict.
Democracy in Palestine MY ASS! Name one Arab nation that actually practices TRUE representative demovcracy and respects the rights of different religions and political views. NAME ONE.
Keep dreaming Levy.
Israel seems to be having some difficulty permitting different political views-20% of the citizens of the state of Israel are Palestinia
Your suggestion that a democratic election is the best strategy to remove Hamas is absurd. It was blind faith in elections that put Hamas in power in the first place. That was right before Hamas removed the moderates from Gaza by force. Elections are not a viable option while rockets are reigning down on Israeli cities. The Arab street hated Israel before the incursion in Gaza, and they will hate Israel afterwords. There must be consequences for the type of behavior that Hamas has displayed. Collective punishment is unjust, and no one wants civilian casualties, but a society that deploys civilians as weapons, and accepts a very flimsy version of the rule of law can not expect justice for its citizens.
You should all get over your Lefty hopes that we can all just get along. Sorry, we can't get along with Hamas and Hezbollah, and the societies that support these groups will pay the price, just or not.
See Jared Levy's Profile
hey Sote,
I would pose this question to you, do you think the plan currently being carried out by the IDF in Gaza is helping Israel realize their long term goals?
You say, "The Arab street hated Israel before the incursion in Gaza, and they will hate Israel afterwords
In 2006, elections were able to change the status quo in Gaza. Why is it impossible for you to conceive that happening again?
Mr. Levy, I just wanted to add that I agree with you and find it refreshing to see this viewpoint in the American media. Most terrorism researchers (as opposed to counter-terrorism state officials) have long suggested the need to negotiate.
you bring up great points, and frankly the only one that has the key to this problem is the US. Why? and How? well if Israel wants to enjoy our continued funding of yearly allowance and weapons appropriations, they must listen to our demands to really go after peace. As for the Palestinians, if they really want us to be an honest broker, they must accept that Israel will not go away and is a legitimate country.
In a time where my fellow Americans are in desperate need for funds to deal with Global Meltdown, I find it hard to understand why we keep giving money to Israel and Egypt? neither countries are in danger of starving or loosing their homes. so why again are we treating these countries as if they were some starving nations? also Israel now has enough weapons on its own, and they are welcome to BUY our weapons instead of just getting it for free
Awaken American
Yeah, but what does Joe the Plumber think?
Gaza has become the anecdotal barrel. It will take great control not smart bombs or marksmanship to resist these targets.
I agree with much of what you are saying about strategy. Israel like the US can no longer seem to discern what is in its own best interest-- they have become convinced that brute force (not negotiations or compromise) is the only way to accomplish their objectives. It makes me wonder about their objectives?
Clearly not peace.
One thing I don't agree with is your saying that Hamas needs dead Palestinians. That's ridiculous. For all this criticism about Hamas firing from near civilians-- I have to ask, where did you think this war would be conducted? Gaza is crowded.
It really is time for a ceasefire--
See Jared Levy's Profile
Bbrecht, the following is from an NYT article by Taghreed el-Khodary http://www
"A car arrived with more patients. One was a 21-year-old man with shrapnel in his left leg who demanded quick treatment.
"Why are you so happy?" this reporter asked. "Look around you."
A girl who looked about 18 screamed as a surgeon removed shrapnel from her leg. An elderly man was soaked in blood. A baby a few weeks old and slightly wounded looked around helplessly. A man lay with parts of his brain coming out. His family wailed at his side.
"Don"t you see that these people are hurting?" the militant was asked.
"But I am from the people, too," he said, his smile incandescent. "They lost their loved ones as martyrs. They should be happy. I want to be a martyr, too."" (end of quote)
This exerpt isn't entirely in line with the point I'm making, but it is indicative of the thought process of some of the Gazan fighters. These are the men with guns in Gaza. This is how they think. Gazans are hostage to men like this just as they are hostage to Israel's Gaza policy.
You see the problem with your story is that this fellow was ISLAMIC JIHAD!!!
He was not Hamas!!!
Before Israel broke the cease fire, Hamas was cracking down on Islamic Jihad!!!
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An important piece of the story was left out:
"A car arrived with more patients. One was a 21-year-old man with shrapnel in his left leg who demanded quick treatment. He turned out to be a militant with ISLAMIC JIHAD. He was smiling a big smile."
Mr Levy, I agree with most of your post and for sure there are fanatics in the Hamas
But to say that 'they" want their people to be killed to help their cause is plain propaganda to say the least.
If they were so blood thirsty and killers, dont you think there would be more targeted asassinations of jews outside of Israel, just like israel has done covertly on many occasions.
Terrorists are not only palestinians or arabs.
I think israel is definitely a terrorist state judging by it's actions and a particularly coward one because it will only fight helpless people like they do in Gaza.
Give gazans half of their weapons and you will see peace come much faster.
See Jared Levy's Profile
bbrecht, my contention that Hamas wants dead civilians may well be up for debate. What is clear is that they use dead civilians as a media tool. As the dead civilians pile up, it becomes more and more difficult for Arab leaders to do anything that resembles a lack of support for Hamas. The source alludes me, but I saw a photo today of a protest in Amman with protestors waiving pictures of Mubarak with a star of David on his forehead. The more dead civilians, the more pressure there is on Arab leaders to support Hamas. The more important point, one that i would guess you and i agree on, is that Israel is either unable or unwilling to avoid this trap. You imply that this is because Israel has no desire for peace. Either you are correct, or Israel lacks the ability to discover and implement an effective strategy.
Mr. Levy's literary forays into Middle Eastern governments and policies are well conceived and thoughtful. However, his attemys at US politics (see Obma piece...)l
My understanding, too, is that the Gazan rockets carry a fertilizer-based explosive compared to the military-grade missles of Israel, not to mention the drastic difference in tonnage dropped daily via IDF planes, helicopters, and drones compared to Gazan rockets payload per diem. Perhaps that's why the IDF reports only mention numbers of 'Hamas' rockets fired vs capability and damage. It's David and Goliath all over again.
The thing is, you don't even get to fire poorly made rockets at another country. It is still an act of war, and when they are aimed at civilians, as they always are, it is still a war crime.
Firing poorly made rockets at civilians is still an act of war, and a war crime. And even poorly made ones kill and terrorize people. Israel is not called upon to sit there and get shot at.
See Jared Levy's Profile
JJ, clearly rocket fire sanctioned by Hamas is unacceptable from an Israeli perspective. I don't think that point is in dispute. At least not from me. What is in dispute is whether Israel's current strategy is the optimal one. Israeli politicians need to assess what there long term goals are vis a vis hamas and gaza, and then make sure they have a strategy that will lead them to said goals. I'm less then convinced that the current events in Gaza are evidence of such a strategy.
Exactly.
Israel's military policy is singularly ill-suited tothe achievement of its stated objectives.
Israel cannot effectively occupy all 1.5 million seething mad Gazans with the IDF. They probably cannot even destroy Hamas - the duly elected government in Gaza. But Israel continues to create the conditions essential the success of Hamas.
Israel is stuck in a 20th century military mindset: There will be no surrender on the decks of the USS Missouri. Hamas will crawl out from their bunkers and basements when the Israelis are forced to leave and Hamas will be stronger than ever.
I'd say geography has a lot to do with why Hamas fires from populated areas. Gaza is 25 miles long and 5 miles wide (8 miles at its widest point) with a population per sq. mile for 2003 in the Gaza Strip of 8,666.
If you take a look at Google earth, you can see that the Israeli land against the border is primarily farm land... beautifully green and flourishing while on the Gaza side lies a wasteland. While the rockets that fly from Gaza are weak and lack guidance systems and rarely hit their targets (although it's horrifying to think what it must be like as a parent when one of them flies in your direction and that of your children) the Israeli missiles are literally shooting fish in a barrel but tragically, the fish are children and the barrel is their homes.
http://gaz
links to Gaza blogs
There are plenty of open places from which Hamas could shoot rockets in Gaza, as Google Earth shows. Moreover, those places are closer to Israel and would extend the range of those rockets. But they choose civilian areas becuase they want to invite civilian casualties.
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