Media Post reports that Dave Zinman, VP and GM of Display Advertising at Yahoo!, was talking about "signals" in his presentation to the OMMA Behavioral crowd in San Francisco this week. Dave is a long-time player in the Internet space with plenty of experience to inform his signal calling. With his view of history he postulates that the first $25 billion of Internet ad spending - about where we are now - was driven by search. I'd agree. It's been essentially $25 billion of clicks and actions thus far.
Dave signals now that the next $25 billion will come from display advertising wherein the value of the impression, not simply the click, will matter most. Yes. For one thing, we can't be sure there are $25 billion more in clicks and actions available online. The Internet would have to be intergalactic in size, or action rates would have to substantially increase, which is unlikely; consumers are just not that into advertising.
But there is no dispute that the Internet is a staple in the daily media diet of people worldwide. Other media are shrinking, therefore Internet advertising should grow. So if there is $25 billion more in ad spending on its way, how will it be accepted and provided for?
Again, who would welcome $25 billion in additional click and action driven advertising? Under those circumstances, if the Internet were an ocean you would be able to walk across it stepping from one flashing banner ad to the next. You could set the water on fire, which is probably a fair description of the reaction consumers might have to such a polluted environment.
Impression-driven advertising will be the only way to absorb the next $25 billion. Advertising that counts for engagement. Advertising that must, therefore, be creative and compelling (like some of these from this year's Cannes festival). Advertising that is intended to woo 100% of the audience, not just .5%. Advertising that is efficient. Advertising that can then be bought in units of one thousand impressions at a time. Advertising that can scale without deforesting the landscape, or drying-up all the wells or burning the ocean.
Which must be what Dave Zinman is concerned about from his vantage point at Yahoo!. As he reports, portals got into the advertising network business a few years ago and vacuumed-up all the reach they could get. But impression-based results were never on their mind as part of that initiative. Impression-based results belonged to the people selling Yahoo! homepages and sponsorships. The ad networks were all about clicks and actions and as the market grew and a desire for action rates led to a desire for more action rates even the portals didn't have the reach to accommodate the results. They needed networks.
Now what? Dave Zinman signals the future: the next $25 billion is going to have to be about the value of impressions. Tim Armstrong may be signaling the same thing at AOL with the dissolution of Platform A and a renewed commitment to selling content and brand.
There has to be something that strikes value into the hearts of buyers and sellers online after all these years and maybe the next $25 billion is that thing.