How much can we really trust all of these presidential election polls?
Well, ever since the DNC ended I have read all of these news pieces from the media regarding the polls for the presidential election. It seems like everywhere you turn there is a new set of numbers on each of the candidates. All of the major ones being published right now are saying that Barack Obama is either just ahead or just behind McCain by a point or two.
Well as they say in the UK, those polls are complete rubbish.
I was at Invesco Field in Denver and experienced first hand the enthusiasm and optimism for Barack's candidacy. The people of America are fed up with the way this country is being run and they want a clear change. As I'm sure you heard many times last week, we are all tired of more of the same.
But yet according the pollsters, Barack didn't experience a post-convention bounce. He isn't up by 5 or 10 points right now like they are all saying he should be. Well friends, I would beg to differ.
What the pollsters and the media are missing out on is that Barack Obama has invigorated a new part of our electorate. He has energized a section of the population that isn't a part of these polls that we read about. The part of the electorate that I am speaking about is the non-voter.
I know from speaking with people on the ground all over America that people have registered to vote in record numbers this year. An Obama field worker from Nevada told me that they are only 2000 registered voters away from turning Nevada into a blue-voting state for the first time in it's history. This is an absolutely amazing feat and something that is not being reported and certainly not reflective in these new polls we are reading.
New voters are going to turn out in record numbers this year and surprise every pollster in the book. Not only has Barack Obama energized disenfranchised African-American voters but he has also motivated millions of apathetic teens and young adults to get out there and vote this year.
I know this first-hand from over 2 and half years of research. I have made a film called The Youngest Candidate, which chronicles the stories of teens who run for public office in America. Although my film is non-partisan and doesn't discuss left or right issues, I was shocked by the ground swell amongst the youth that Obama has created. Many kids that I spoke to had never voted in a presidential election before but they are going to in November and they are going to in record numbers.
It is my personal belief that Barack Obama will bring more new voters to the table in November than any presidential candidate has in our history. He epitomizes the American Dream in a way that this country has never seen before. The son of a former sheep farmer born in Africa is now a presidential candidate. That fact sends chills down my spine and reminds me that this truly is the greatest country in the world and anything is possible in America.
So I wouldn't be too worried about these polls that we are all seeing right now. Barack got his convention bump. But his bump will go under the radar for another 2 months. It will be unrecorded by pollsters and the media until we see the votes on election day. And when that day comes then maybe these pollsters will finally figure out a way to accurately tell the people who is really ahead and behind during these races.