The back-to-school season is upon us. Across the country, millions of children are preparing to hit the books. Many of those kids will be entering school for the first time, making this season a huge transition for them and their families. But for many families, starting school isn't the only transition. Our analysis of Census data shows that 57% of households where the oldest child is between 5 and 9 years old said they moved sometime in the previous five years. Lots of factors go into the decision of whether to move and where, and for parents, this decision is largely driven by what matters most to their families: affordability, more space and of course good schools.
To figure out which school districts are the "most attractive" -- in the sense that they attract families with school-age kids -- we looked at the number of elementary school kids (by which we mean kids aged 5 to 9) and the number of preschoolers (kids aged 0 to 4) living in every school district in the U.S., according to the 2010 Census. The ratio of elementary school kids to preschoolers shows whether families move to or away from a district as kids approach school age. Since the Census is a snapshot in time, we can't track individual families to see whether and when they actually moved to a different school district, but the ratio does reveal their overall movement patterns.
Here's why: if families never moved, then the number of 5-to-9 year-olds would be very close to the number of 0-to-4 year-olds in an area, and the ratio would be very close to 1. (Nationally, the ratio is 1.01.) Children don't just magically vanish after age 4; nor does the stork drop 5-year-olds from the sky. Therefore, a ratio below 1 indicates that more families are moving out of an area than are moving in as children reach school age. And vice versa, a ratio above 1 indicates that more families are moving in than moving out. The higher the ratio, the more "attractive" the school district is, because it literally attracts more families with school-age kids.
Which districts attract families with school-age kids? Districts with higher ratios of school-age to pre-school age kids tend to have, on average, much higher GreatSchools ratings, which we feature on Trulia Local schools maps. In addition to good schools, attractive school districts tend to have two other things going for them as well: (1) housing affordability -- that is, lower price per square foot, and (2) lower population density, which means bigger houses and more parks, yards or other outdoor spaces. Neighboring districts matter as well: a not-too-bad school district could still lose lots of school-age kids and therefore have a ratio below 1 if it's surrounded by great school districts. The ratio shows where parents move, and where future parents might move if they follow today's parents' footsteps.
Before we get into the rankings, here's what we learned after looking at all of the data:
First: the school districts that attract parents with school-age kids include both pricey and relatively more affordable districts. The key difference between pricey districts that attract families -- like Scarsdale or Beverly Hills -- and more affordable and attractive districts -- like Kinnelon Borough, in suburban New Jersey, or Walnut Valley, many miles east of Los Angeles -- is the commute. To get an attractive school district AND a short commute to downtown, be prepared to pay. If you can't afford top-dollar in your region, you might find yourself having to choose between a great school district for your kids or a manageable commute for yourself.
Second: don't be tempted to guess which school districts families are drawn to. For example, you might think families want their school-age kids to be educated near great universities, but many great university towns have low ratios of school-age to pre-school age kids, including Cambridge and Berkeley. Furthermore, places that might seem similar in many ways could actually be very different in their appeal to parents. For instance, the beach communities on the west side of Los Angeles include several that families move to, like Manhattan Beach and Palos Verdes, and some that families tend to move out of, like Redondo Beach and Santa Monica -- Malibu. There's no way to guess where parents move without looking at the data -- which is why we did it.
So now, on to the data!
The Nation's "Most Attractive" School Districts
The most attractive school district in the country for families with school-age kids is the Saratoga Union district, south of San Jose and next to Los Gatos. There are 2.38 elementary school kids for every pre-school age kid in that district. It's an affluent and expensive area, with a median price per square foot of $607, but clearly families with school-age kids think that district is worth it.
Second is the Lovejoy Independent district, with a ratio of 2.15, in the northern Dallas suburbs just beyond Plano. Unlike Saratoga Union, Lovejoy is affordable by national standards and only a bit above the Dallas metro median of $87 price per foot. As we'll see when we look more closely at individual metro areas, affordability often attracts families with school-age kids.
The third district with more than twice as many elementary-school-age kids versus pre-school-age kids is Cold Spring Harbor, on the North Shore of Long Island. School quality may not be the only factor that parents with school-age kids care about, but it sure helps: all of these most attractive districts have high GreatSchools ratings.
America's Most Attractive School Districts
Price per SQFT
Note: The ratio is the number of 5-to-9 year-olds divided by the number of 0-to-4 year-olds living in the school district. Ranking is among districts in the largest 100 U.S. metro areas with at least 1,000 0-to-9 year-olds. Click here to download the full list of school rankings by ratio and the full list by state.
At the other extreme, kids disappear from Hoboken, Alexandria VA, Somerville MA and other districts on the bottom-ten list by the time they reach school age. Hoboken has only 39 elementary-school-age kids per 100 pre-school-age kids. According to one Hoboken resident, whom I won't name but who happens to be my mother, a well-known local saying is "Hoboken plus five years equals Montclair" (the Montclair school district, about 15 miles west of Hoboken, has a ratio of 1.30). Many of the places that families leave are also expensive:
Hoboken and Cambridge real estate is more than $400 per square foot. And at those prices, schools would need to be top-ranked in order to retain or attract families. If you live there now or are thinking about moving there, you might find yourself looking to move out if and when you have kids who are ready to start school.
America's Least Attractive School Districts
Price per SQFT