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Why Latinos and Asian Americans Went for Hillary
Among Latino and Asian American circles, Super Tuesday brought a sense of giddiness. Thanks to the central importance of California to the primary elections, here was a chance to not just be heard, but to be recognized as a voting bloc right up there with the privileged masses of Iowa or New Hampshire. Boy, did they make some noise.
In California, while Obama took a plurality of white voters (including white males) and the overwhelming majority of African American voters, Hillary won the popular vote by 8 points. So how did Hillary make her 10% margin of victory? A big part of the answer was in the Latino and Asian American votes. A CNN exit poll last night indicated that Latinos in California went for Hillary by a 2-1 margin, and Asian Americans went for her 3-1. Democratic polls showed Hillary winning Latinos by 3-1.
Soon we'll be hearing a number of crackpot theories as to why this was so. Are Latinos and Asian Americans in fact slightly more conservative on immigration issues than everyone previously thought? Ridiculous. Are Latinos and Asian Americans unwilling to bring themselves to vote for a Black man? Get out of here with that.
The reason Hillary won is because the Latino and Asian American votes remain emergent, not yet insurgent.
Emergent voting blocs respond to leaders in their community. If the candidate wins the leader, she wins her followers. Insurgent voting blocs instead respond to calls for change, and may focus more on single issues or agendas. If a candidate stakes out a good position, she captures the community. Hillary played the politics of emergence.
Early, she locked down important leaders in the Latino and Asian American communities. In Los Angeles, that meant securing Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's support, and the predominantly Latino unions that have supported him. She also landed the support of Fabian Nunez and Dolores Huerta. In San Francisco, that meant seizing on Mayor Gavin Newsom's popularity amongst Asian Americans. She also captured a who's who of Asian American elected officials starting with Controller John Chiang and moving on down. Just as important, Hillary's campaign locked up a huge number of the leading Latino and Asian American party operatives--the people who actually deliver the voters.
All of them--from Villaraigosa to the Asian American precinct captain--were responding to what might be called aspirational politics. The individuals become proxies for the community. You hear them say in their campaigns, "When I win, you win." Clinton's main advantage is that she has the access to power and the party structures that deliver promises to officials and operatives. Obama doesn't. Emergent politics favors individuals seeking power. Think of it this way: Hillary, the woman candidate, is bringing Latino and Asian American leaders into the old-boy's network.
These leaders, in turn, deliver votes via their community's structures of power: business groups, labor unions, voter groups, community organizations. Those groups tend to deliver an older voter who is already "in the game", who can directly benefit from the opening of the old-boy's network. "Experience" really is a cover for "access".
Latinos and Asian Americans in California are overwhelmingly Democratic, and will likely remain so for a very long time because of Reep immigration demagoguery. But they also tend to be more mainstream and conservative. Remember that, to the great embarrassment of many Asian Americans, it was the influential Chinese American Democratic Club in San Francisco that sponsored anti-affirmative attacks on the prestigious Lowell High School. It's also possible Obama's call for change is received differently even among dissatisfied immigrants. Who better understands the disruption and dislocation that change can bring?
And finally, one should never underestimate the ability of Democratic party operatives to screw up a good thing. Although Obama is from Hawai'i, has Asian family members, and is beloved there, his largely white campaign staff blew it big time early in the campaign last year. After circulating an anti-outsourcing memo to the media that called Hillary "the Democrat from Punjab", Obama was forced to apologize and distance himself from his staff. The episode barely rippled outside of the community, barely inside of the community, to be fair. But it had a number of Asian American political insiders and campaign donors bolting for Hillary's camp.
Emergent groups are highly sensitive to perceived snubs. The so-called 80-20 Initiative, an effort led by former Delaware lieutenant governor S.B. Woo (a Democrat) to unite 80% of the Asian American electorate "defeat Obama", began when Obama staffers answered a yes-no questionnaire with a "well, yes but..." on a question asking whether he'd promote affirmative action for Asian Americans. Hillary's campaign, with ample access to Latino and Asian American leaders, never made any of these mistakes.
So Hillary won by old party-style top-down appeals to Latinos and Asian Americans. Dems shouldn't rest thinking that this strategy will hold for long. Younger Latino and Asian American voters were energized by Obama, and formed a visible and crucial part of his GOTV ground troops. They had an impact. Roberto Lovato notes that Obama was able to bring down Hillary's overall 4-1 advantage among Latino voters to a 3-2 advantage by Super Tuesday. It could be argued that Obama's bottom-up machinery hasn't yet taken full advantage of the pent-up energy amongst young Brown and Yellow voters.
When that power is unleashed, it will be unpredictable. The 1.5 generation, young Latino and Asian Americans from the ages of 16-40 who were born elsewhere but raised multilingual and multicultural in the U.S., represents a massive demographic bulge in those communities only beginning to feel itself. Before long, they will turn their communities' emergent vote into an insurgent vote. And then the country will really discover not just the necessity of the Latino and Asian American vote, but what it is that they really want.
Jeff Chang writes on popular culture, politics, race, and music. He wrote a cover story on Barack Obama for Vibe Magazine. He is the author of Can't Stop Won't Stop: A History of The Hip-Hop Generation, and editor of Total Chaos: The Art & Aesthetics of Hip-Hop. You can find him at: www.cantstopwontstop.com/blog
Follow Jeff Chang on Twitter: www.twitter.com/zentronix
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Did you ever give credit to the Latino voters for recognizing that Hillary has defined for them, and us, what plans she has to help us once she gets elected. Your dismissal of voters'intelligence in recognizing and responding to differences between these two candiates and what message they are giving, is a diservice to your community. Inspiration vs. concrete proposals. Inspiration may feel good but getting it done is ultimately more satisfying and more relevant.
Jeff Chang's analysis and observations on the emergent and resurgent elements of political influence and participation within the American Asian, African and Latino communities was brilliant. It absolutely described what I experienced over a period of almost thirty years working with and among the black and latin groups in Texas. I had no experience with Asians in Texas, but did observe the Chinese community in San Francisco for a number of years. I was lost in admiration for the discipline and devotion to family and tradition in that community. I never worked in politics in the area.
It became clear to me in the early 80s that the latins would eventually replace the blacks as the most dominant political group in the state. The reasons were simple and obvious. It was the difference in leaders and leadership style. The educated and successful latinos worked unselfishly to help their people and the people respected those who worked on their behalf and trusted their judgement and advise.
On the other hand it was a mixed bag among the blacks with help for their own kind sometimes relatively selfish and exploitive in nature. The lack of trust and respect going in both directions made for a lack of steady social and political progress.
In the latin community the observation of growing social and political progress was steady and growing with each political season.
Adding to the development of political progress among the latinos was what appeared to be a sense of respect for the older people in the community. This was spotty at best within the black community.
I also observed that latinos as they grew more politically sophisticated grew away from absolute loyalty to the Democratic Party and began to bargain for the best deal for themselves and their community. While I sometimes regretted this I had to admit that it was a good thing for them not to be taken for granted. It kept everybody relatively honest.
While this is an interesting and somewhat insightful analysis, I'm not sure I agree wholeheartedly with the assessment of Asian-americans (will not presume to speak for the Latino portion because I didn't grow up as one or surrounded by them as I did Asians). I don't want to perpetuate an old stereotype, but there is also the possibility that many AAs voted for Hillary because we like facts, details, specifics. I and many of my generation of AAs (and as far as I can see, the generations following us) were brought up to do our homework, put our nose to the grindstone and be analytical about (mostly) everything. Considering that Hillary campaigns with mind-numbing detail about her policies and plans once she gets into office, and many of the campaign appearances by Obama seem to center on large, somewhat vague, rally-like inspiration speeches short on specifics (as any inspirational speech would have to be), it's not really surprising to me that Asian-Americans tended to vote for the person who seemed most prepared to talk about the dull details of policy, health plans, the sub-prime loan crisis, etc., etc. I (and it seems many of my fellow AAs) just prefer facts to rhetoric. It may not be very inspirational, but it's a lot more comforting than appeals to emotion.
Senator Obama is akin to a teenage trend. I can understand it, as I once supported George McGovern with all my heart (although look what the alternative was!). I am older and wiser and can spot an empty suit when I see it. Latino-Americans and Asian-Americans realize that our success is riding on Senator Clinton because they appreciate the ability to accomplish goals over rhetoric. We have so much at stake. Neither Obama nor McCain will be able to deliver the goods -- McCain is one-note (the military, which he apparently intends to keep in Iraq), he is anti-choice and represents the old guard; Obama is so green it is even more frightening. To think that they would be our only choices is chilling. Senator Clinton is the real deal. We must do everything we can to support her. I have sent in my third small donation; we need to keep sending them in so she can continue to get her message to the people.
It's a little condescending to say all those California and Massachusetts 18-29 year olds and college students who preferred Clinton over Obama took orders from Asian and Latino community leaders.
Ides, talkin to me? Look at the CNN exit polls. You can find all the data there.
As an 66 year old American Negro, trust me when I say this issue is much less complicated than this author makes it. One of the first words any immigrant to America learns is "Nigger". Its been that way since the first African Slaves stepped ashore in the Jamestown. We have been villanized every moment of the 400 years since. England colonized the world using the same principle, divide & conquer. EVERYONE in America is an Immigrant, except the Native Indian Tribes. The Republican Party and Southern Segregationists have joined as one to roll-back "Worker's Rights" & "Civil Rights".
When Strom Thurmond ran for President in 1948, he proudly called himself a Segregationist. Now that word is frowned upon, they call themselves Conservatives - and we "pretend" it's not the same wolf in sheep's clothing. They have succeeded in dividing the American People into small groups and have found a way to pit one group of against another. Bush began with a $4 Trillion Surplus - cut taxes for the richest - started an unnecessary war that costs $1 1/2 Billion a week... we're now at a $9 Trillion deficit with no end in sight. OPEN YOUR EYES! You're being used. You let a burglar in our house and he's stealing everything that's not nailed-down. AND, he will make your children, grand-children & great-grand-children pay the bill.
Asian community respects political savvy and intellectual brilliance displayed by Hillary. In addition the they distrust the trendy image and empty promises peddled by Obama.
Good analysis, Jeff Chang. My daughter-in-law is of an offspring of a Taiwanese American union and she has said the same thing about the areas she knows in Queens, NY. But that is not unusual for an immigrant people to trust whatever leadership there is in the close-knit community. As for my daughter-in-law, she has moved beyond...way beyond, the emergent stage, although she has more trouble convincing her mother to join her.
Interesting analysis. The fact is that Obama isn't the issue here - a big chunk of the Latino votes would have gone to Hillary regardless of who the other competitor was (maybe with the one exception of Richardson).
The real losers in this are the voters to whom immigration reform is important. Any issue that will take real political courage will be made toxic by the Clintons because they don't have the political courage to stick with it and their association with it will be a rallying cry for the opposition to galvanize around. Look what happened to healthcare reform. It's been dead and buried for 14 years since the Hillary Clinton debacle. And Newt Gingrich and the Republicans were able to rally around that and take over congress in 1994. If Clinton makes it to the White House immigration reform will be her next victim and those opposed to health care reform will be revitalized for another 14 years
Rascist, sexist, blah blah blah...
To tell you the truth, if the only candidate the Democrats had to put up against the Republicans was a snail, I'd vote for the snail.
Does that expose my inner phylum bias?
At 60 and an Asian woman, here's how I think:
Maybe Hillary wasn't likable enough that Bill needed Monica love. Maybe Hillary didn't have vision to see what was coming. Maybe Hillary had no strategy to run a family.
Marriage is an experience, and many have it; but without true compassion, insightful wisdom, and sincere courage, one cannot handle it well.
Are we marrying experience, or are we marrying wisdom, compassion, and courage? Bush has the-most-qualifying-2-term-presidential-experience but why isn't he getting any smarter or doing any better?
Voting on Iraq War is like eating jellybeans, "you can tell a lot about a fella''s character..."
"Only the dead have seen the end of war."
"Hell is this thing called war!"
For Hillary:
"How could man rejoice in victory and delight in the slaughter of men, women, and children?"
"How many deaths will it take till he knows
That too many people have died?"
How many times can a man turn his head
And pretend that he just doesn't see?
The answer, my friend, is blowin in the wind...
Oh where, oh where were my Hillary…tears when I needed thou?
For Obama:
"... But we ought not — we will not — travel down that hellish path blindly. Nor should we allow those who would march off and pay the ultimate sacrifice, who would prove the full measure of devotion with their blood, to make such an awful sacrifice in vain."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.phpaz=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4327360&mesg_id=4327360
"Regard your soldiers as your children, and they will follow you into the deepest valleys; look on them as your own beloved sons, and they will stand by you even unto death."
"The enlightened ruler is heedful, and the good general full of caution."
"... They would not listen, they did not know how.
Perhaps they'll listen now..."
"Without truth I know not how man can live.”
"Kindness in thinking creates profoundness."
"From caring comes courage."
My choice.
Thank you Jeff for this article which reminds
us of the Clintons Politics of Inclusion.
This is an excellent post. As a Latino it is very evident to me that Latinos in general vote in block and do respond to leaders in their community. This is going to be a serious issue for Obama going forward regardless how much money he spends on ads and phone calls to court the Latino vote. This is going to be a huge challenge for him in Texas. I really do think Obama dropped the ball on this early on. Hillary was able to have vision 12-18 months ago and is now capitalizing on it.
So Latinos and Asians didn't support Obama the most - so what? Why is that any group who doesn't vote for Obama is somehow labeled racist while those not voting for Hillary are never called sexist?
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