Tough week across the board as Dr. Bob goes 2-3, bringing his record to 24-21. I went 1-4, bringing my record down to 26-15-4.
As always all of Dr. Bob's analysis can be found on his website.
On to this week's picks. Here's Dr. Bob's...
AIR FORCE (-32) 48 New Mexico 10
New Mexico won their first game of the season last week, defeating Wyoming 34-31 at home. Lobos' freshman quarterback Stump Godfrey has a nice game, completing 16 of 20 passes while averaging 7.4 yards per pass play and running for 94 yards on 18 runs. Godfrey gets his second career start this week, but I don't expect anything close to the success he had last week against a bad Wyoming defense. Wyoming would allow 7.6 yppp on the road to an average quarterback, so Godfrey's 7.4 yppp last week is not actually all that good and Godfrey has averaged 5.8 yppp in the 4 games he's played in, against teams that would allow 7.3 yppp to an average quarterback. Those numbers are actually better than New Mexico's season offensive pass rating and Godfrey's good running last week isn't likely to continue give that he's averaged a more modest 4.2 yards per rushing play on 50 runs this season while facing bad defensive teams that would allow 5.4 yprp to an average runner. I decided to throw out Godfrey's stats from his first appearance against New Mexico State when he had -2 pass yards on 5 pass plays, so I do expect an upgrade in New Mexico's pass attack this week. Even so, I still rate the Lobos' attack at 1.3 yards per play worse than average with Godfrey at quarterback (which is actually an upgrade). Air Force is average defensively for the season, but that is actually better than what the Lobos have faced on average this season. My math model projects 257 total yards at just 4.1 yppl for New Mexico in this game.
While the offense had a rare decent performance last week (just the second time they've averaged more than 4.5 yppl) the defense continued their horrendous season in giving up 536 yards at 9.6 yppl to a below average Wyoming offense. The only reason New Mexico barely won last week is because they were +4 in turnover margin thanks to 3 Wyoming fumbles and an interception. The Lobos are now allowing 6.6 yppl and 42 points per game to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense. Air Force has averaged 6.2 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) and that unit should have no trouble running against a Lobos' defensive front that's allowed 5.7 yards per rushing play to teams that would combine to average just 4.6 yprp against an average team). Like most option teams, Air Force is relatively worse offensively against bad defensive teams since the option depends more on how the offense is executing than it does on how good the defense is. So, instead of the 7.1 yprp that would be projected normally, my math predicts 6.2 yprp for Air Force in this game using a regression model that takes into account their tendency to play relatively worse against worse defensive teams. Even after that adjustment and for the upgrade for New Mexico's offense I still get Air Force by 35 points in this game.
The little bit of line value is not why I like this game, however. New Mexico applies to a very negative 19-61-2 ATS situation that plays against road underdogs after a victory in which they played poor defensively. That angle is 1-12-1 ATS when applying to underdogs of 25 points or more, so it works at all spread ranges. Also, teams that start the season 0-6 or worse are horrible as big underdogs following their first victory of the season and the Lobos apply to an 0-20-1 ATS situation that is based on that premise.
Byu (-6 ½) 28 COLORADO STATE 16
BYU started to play better when head coach Bronco Mendenhall fired his defensive coordinator and went back to running the defense following the Cougars' week 5 loss to Utah State. Mendenhall is a great defensive mind and he admits making a mistake in handing over the defensive play calling duties, but his team is playing great defense now that he's back in charge. BYU has given up just 4.3 yards per play in 4 games since the change (against teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and the Cougars have gone 3-1 straight up and 3-1 ATS in those 4 games. BYU still struggles offensively, averaging only 4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team, but the Cougars should be able to move the ball at a decent rate against an equally bad Colorado State defense that's allowed 6.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. BYU's advantage is their good defense going against a mediocre Colorado State attack that has been stuffed by mediocre and good defensive teams. Colorado State has averaged 39 points on 525 yards at 8.0 yppl in 3 games against bad defensive teams Idaho, UNLV, and New Mexico, but the Rams have averaged just 10 points on 274 yards at 4.2 yppl in their 7 games against mediocre and good defensive teams (which would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team). BYU certainly qualifies as a good defensive team, so I expect the Rams to struggle offensively as they usually do against anything other than a bad defense. My math model favors BYU by 9 points in this game and the Cougars apply to a very good 57-17-2 ATS late season road favorite situation that won for me last week with Boston College. Colorado State, meanwhile, applies to a negative 49-116-3 ATS letdown situation that is based on their close loss as a big dog to San Diego State last week.
CHICAGO (+1) 20 Minnesota 16
Minnesota was a very good team last season. Last season. People seem to think that last season matters, which is the only reason to explain how a 3-5 Vikings team could be favored on the road against a 5-3 Bears team. Chicago has their issues, but the Bears are a decent team and the Vikings haven't beaten a decent team this season. Minnesota's 3 victories were against 2-6 Detroit, 1-7 Dallas, and a 3-5 Arizona team that is not nearly as good as their record. Chicago at least has a win over Green Bay while the Vikings are 0-4 on the road. Minnesota does have an advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game, as the Vikes are 0.2 yppl better than average offensively on a yards per play basis (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but they've managed to score just 19.5 points per game because Brett Favre is back to his interception prone self after a year of taking care of the ball (13 interceptions in 8 games this season after just 7 all of last year). Chicago's defense actually has the edge, as the Bears have given up just 4.9 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team, and the Bears are giving up just 16.6 points per game.
Chicago's offense started the season averaging 6.7 yppl in their first two games, but teams have figured out how to defend Mike Martz' offense a bit better than they did early season, as opponents are now blitzing more to take advantage of a bad offensive line. To balance out their two very good offensive games the Bears also had two horrendous offensive games (against the Giants and the next week at Carolina without Cutler playing). For the season Cutler has actually been average (6.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp), but those first two games are skewing that average and the best way to rate the Bears' pass attack is by using a median where I take out Cutler's two great games to open the season and his horrible game at New York (sacked 10 times). The result is a pass attack that is 0.5 yppp worse than average and an offense that is 0.3 yppl worse than average. Minnesota's defense 0.2 yppl better than average for the season but their secondary played well last week with veteran CB Lito Sheppard returning to the field (the Vikings were thin at CB with starter Griffin out and rookie Cook hurt). The Vikings do have the overall edge from the line of scrimmage in this game, but Chicago has an advantage in projected turnovers and special teams and my math model favors the Bears by 1 ½ points. In addition to the line value Minnesota applies to a negative 11-41-3 ATS subset of a 90-159-12 ATS road letdown situation.
PITTSBURGH (-4 ½) 27 New England 17
The Patriots were exposed last week by the Cleveland Browns, but the odds makers are still showing them too much respect. New England's offense is just barely better than average for the season (5.5 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.3 ypp to an average team) and they've been worse than that without Randy Moss. The Pats' defense is 0.3 yppl worse than average, giving up 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team, so New England is a slightly worse than average team overall from the line of scrimmage. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is 0.7 yppl better than average offensively in 4 games with Ben Roethisberger at quarterback and the Steelers are 0.6 yppl better than average defensively and have continued to play at that level in two games without defensive ends Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel. My math model projects Pittsburgh with a dominating 381 yards at 6.5 yppl to 269 yards at 4.6 yppl for the Patriots. That math model calls for Pittsburgh to win by 11 ½ points, but my other model only favors the Steelers by 6 ½ points.
Now on to mine...
Houston -1 vs. Jacksonville
Houston blew a big lead against SD but I still think they are a decent team and with this short line I will take the Texans.
Buffalo -3 vs. Detroit
Detroit comes off a very difficult loss to the Jets and now face the winless Bills. If Buffalo is going to avoid a winless season this is a game they must have.
Cleveland +3 vs. Jets
Cleveland is not getting respect from the oddsmakers and can win this game against a Jets team that is escaping each week.
Carolina +6.5 @ TB
This TB team has been impressive but giving 6.5 points is new territory and even with the inept Carolina offense I think taking the points makes a lot of sense.
Dallas +14 @ Giants
Ugh. Dallas is a mess. But they still have talent and you'd have to think they have some pride. 14 points is simply too many.