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Gas Prices Predict Elections
And Senator Clinton knows it. It doesn't mean the issue will necessarily give her the lifeline she needs today, but if anything will, she's hit the right issue.
For the past forty years, the most predicitive economic indicator has been oil prices and how they affect consumers. This hasn't held true in every presidential election, like in 2004, where prices were sharply up from 2000 and Bush won re-election. Compared to other key indicators, though, like employment, consumer confidence, the stock market, Gross Domestic Product, and Gross National Product, it has been the case more times than any other economic factor that if a president starts a term with lower gas prices and ends with higher prices, he is in trouble.
Whether you believe Senator Clinton is pandering or playing politics by suggesting a gas tax holiday for the summer, she is playing the table with the criteria that historically matters most.
As Clinton said in the last debate between the two contenders for the democratic presidential nomination, "I may be a lot of things, but I'm not dumb."
Clinton's strange bedfellow on this issue is Senator McCain. While Clinton suggests that eliminating gas taxes for the summer would hurt oil companies, the reality is that federal and state governments receive the money from gasoline taxes.
In Obama's strategic corner appears to be the long-term appearance of this issue. Clinton, who is behind in the delegate count, has shifted into a general election strategy mode by necessity. Her now-famous boxing gloves are off, and today is do or die for her.
Obama, ahead in the delegate count, could also be knocked out today. But if he prevails today, by beating expectations, (which now hold that he must win North Carolina by five percentage points and not lose Indiana by more than five,) the gas tax holiday may be just what he needs to tie Senator McCain in knots in the Fall.
The key difference in the general election is this: its one big national OPEN primary. Party affiliation doesn't matter, delegate counts don't matter, and the main comparison won't be over the styles of two candidates with many issue positions in common, but two candidates with the most critical issues and the direction of the country in contrast.
Obama's position that the gas tax holiday is "a dishonest approach to a real problem," will resonate with non-partisans . "Bill Clinton in 2000 said it wouldn't help consumers," Obama said on the stump. "Hillary Clinton's own staff said this is political and would probably not affect consumers" .
In going against economists on this gas tax issue, McCain is increasing his vulnerability with both fiscal conservatives and independent voters. McCain needs them both to win. If Obama gets past today, he has emerged as the true "outsider" among the three candidates left. Ironically, what may work for Clinton today could scuff McCain up in the Fall.
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1. hillary is making a promise on something she can't deliver..its the president who can make that happen and bush isn't going to do that.
2. there is NO guarantee that the oil companies will pass that savings on to customers..in fact there is a history that they WILL NOT..
3. The fact that it will cost jobs and road and bridge maintenance is a serious issue and hillary's solution to use the windfall tax on oil profits to pay for that is a lie since she already promised to use that money for alternative fuel research..so she's spending that money TWICE..
4. Obama opposes it not to be contrary to hillary (which is unusual since they agree on 99% of the issues) but because he DID IT BEFORE AND IT DIDN'T WORK!!! They passed a tax holiday in Illinois back when gas was 2 bucks (remember the good old days when gas was cheap...lol) and six months later when they did the research to see if it worked..it was inconclusive..AND they had to deal with the fallout of all that other stuff (lost jobs no money for roads and bridges etc)..
5. its clear pandering for votes. Stevie Wonder can see that.
Hillary is truly the candidate for "change" as in the pitiful pennies, nickels and dimes this would save everyone. Less than the cost of a cup of coffee a day, according to all estimates.
At least George Bush pandered to y'all in 2000 with the promise of a $600 check. And ya fell for it then, too.
All Hillary's offering is something off the dollar menu at McDonalds.
Hey! You want fries with that President?
JP
Ha! Great comment
I think a canidate that shows the american public that they really want to help them with their problems is a much better canidate for president then one that will do nothing but give the rich more tax breaks. If I wanted that I would have again I would have for Bush
Obama would get my vote if he truly had new solutions and original thoughts to solving problems. Sorry folks but he doesn't. I have heard his speeches and they fail to convince me of anything. What is his charm? I don't see it..
On this particular issue, what do you expect him to do? The most effective way you would change things as a politician is by nationalizing the energy resources and taking control away from the oil companies. This isn't happening soon. Change Detroit? Wishful thinking, until Congress gets a spine and gets tough on the auto industry to move forward with more efficient cars.
We as a country need to find new resources for energy that reduce our dependence on oil. THAT is the change that we have to make and no single politician can do that. You at home have to buy fuel-efficient cars, carpool, use public transportation or walk/bike to work. Make fewer trips out to get single items.
As it stands right now, any tax that you levy on the oil companies is going to be passed on to the consumer. There are no guarantees that you would get any savings, especially since prices spike due to higher demand in the summer. Exxon Mobil is enjoying their record-breaking profits. Part of it is supply, but a large problem is the traders themselves. It's insane that they are allowing the prices to go this high. $122 today, $200 before the year is out. The only way for prices to go is UP if you tax them, and up if you don't, thanks to the increase in demand.
People don't seem to understand Hilliaries policy about the gas break here. She will do it if she gets in office for you and I. OH-Mamma will consult Washington Economists about it. Get real. Well the banks got THEIR breaks already. Why should he care about us?
I believe in economist because Obama does and because they are always right! LMAO!
Hillary is obviously TRYING to help the working person. Obama isn't. His "change" platform is a joke. What is it? It's a total copy of Hilliaries. Not surprising from a man that stole many other of his speeches. What will he change? He will not even give ordinary american's a break in gas prices over the summer! All the "Oh-mamma! Bots" just chime in on all his manafactured talking points. They all sound like old GWB supporters. Obama is nothing but a total opportunist. He runs for president before his seat in congress is warm. I guess the addage "there a sucker born every minute" fits here. That's what each and every "OH-MOMMA Bots" are...
Do you really believe Clinton's gas tax holiday overtures show that she's "trying to help the working person?" You don't think she's just trying to help herself? Really?
She is obviously PANDERING for your vote, with a plan that will put 300,000 people out of jobs. Her shpiel about "smart choice" and "solutions" had better be stuff that works, not a shell game.
"We may be a lot of things, but we are not dumb."
This is the kind of article that gives the Clinton they can cheat their way into the White House! It is not the article at all, it is the writers that need to be responsible in reporting and not spin things for the advantage of others.
Hill-Bill-y in my view assuming we are all dumb.
I'm not convinced that I will vote for Obama, but his stance on this issue definitely separates him from the other two.
I would never vote for McBomb anyway and this is a huge knock against HilRod.
This issue shows Obama's honesty. He told it like it is.
McCain is not Clinton's "strange bedfellow" on this issue - she is his. He proposed it first, and she was so quick to crawl between the sheets thinking it would give her a popular edge she direly needs.
But there's cooties in those sheets.
How can Hillary Clinton promise to give consumers a "gas holiday" as a candidate who, even if she is elected President, won't have any power to do anything close to that until next year.
Economists oppose the idea.
The present White House opposes the idea.
She has presented NO bill proposing a gas tax holiday.
Telling voters that SHE THINKS THEY SHOULD HAVE A 3 MONTH GAS TAX HOLIDAY does not make it happen.
Just how naive does Hillary Clinton think American voters are?????
Not "naive" - but dumb.
You think a gas holiday would get through this Bush owned congress? Please...
The only people who are naive here are all the Oh-Momma supporters who believe in his phony "Change you can believe in" platform. No lamer simplistic platform have I ever heard in my life. Many of you buy this crap..? WOW! Naive, they name is "Oh-Momma BOT"
Very.
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Posted May 6, 2008 | 10:51 AM (EST)