If Ayotte Runs in NH, It's a Sign Democrats Have Electoral Problems Holding Senate/House Seats in 2010

New Hampshire in 2010 is very much in play from Senate to dog-catcher, and that could present a challenge for Democrats in 2010 if other states follow suit -- which they often do. I'm not saying 2010 could be Obama's 2006, where that many seats go to the other party, but I am saying Democrats could lose enough important seats to tip the balance of power if they don't see it coming. In 1982, Republicans lost 26 House seats after Reagan's first two years as president, and in 1994, Democrats lost 54 House seats and 8 Senate seats after President Clinton's first two years.

Yesterday, NBC's Chuck Todd accurately reported on the move to draft New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (Republican appointed by Democratic Governor John Lynch after Republican Gov. Craig Benson). Ayotte would be a dream candidate for the GOP in NH, which has seen every GOP seat since 2006 in play from Republican to Democrat (former Sen. Sununu now Sen. Shaheen, former Rep. Bradley now Rep. Shea-Porter, Former Rep. Bass now Rep. Rep. Paul Hodes.)

Another poignant issue: AG Kelly Ayotte has young children and huge popularity in the state. She won't run if she doesn't think she can win -- and it increasingly looks like she may run.

New Hampshire tends to be about two years ahead of the national electoral party trend, i.e. the wholesale turnover in 2006 to Democrats, not voting for Gore in the 2000 general election, then voting for Kerry in the 2004 general election.

The thinking this cycle is that if Gregg does what he says he will, it's an open seat. Rep. Paul Hodes, who beat Rep. Bass in CD 2 for his seat, announced his Senate candidacy within hours of Sen. Gregg's nomination as Commerce Secretary. Hodes has run an all-out frontal campaign since then. Problem for him is, NH voters tend to recoil at front-runners. (Quoting G.W. Bush after losing by 18 points to McCain in 2000: "NH has long been a bump in the road for front-runners.")

So Hodes is not a slam dunk for Gregg's seat, if there is a good opponent. Absent Kelly Ayotte its hard to see Hodes not having an edge on the seat. With her, its hard to see her not having the edge -- she has crossover appeal and a large base.

As for the Congressional races, Mayor Frank Guinta of Manchester appears to be the one to run against Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. She has been vulnerable since she upset 2006 Primary opponent Jim Craig and won her seat then ousted Rep. Jeb Bradley (now a State Senator after losing his rematch to Porter in 2008). So that one is an unclear outcome.

In CD 2, a crowded Democratic field with Ann McLane Kuster, Katrina Swett, and Mark Fernald should not be any comfort to former Rep. Charlie Bass as he tries to win back his seat.

Comments

[truegreen]

there are many flaws in Donahue's assertion of Ayotte. First. Ayotte herself, has never hinted or speculated about her interest in running for the senate. Second. Donahue fails to acknowledge her story last fall clamming Sarah Palin who deliver female voters thus delivering the New Hampshire to McCain. Third. Obama won defeated McCain in NH by 9 points wining a majority of WHITE WOMAN. Last. It is premature to assume because a popular woman in an appointed, not elected position is some a sign of potential democratic weakness. The democrats could lose seats on their own because they even w// a majority they still cannot accomplish any real change.

[rmax53]

Ayotte may be popular with the dwindling NH Republican base, as she has continued many of the more regressive policies of ex-gov Benson. But as a NH Democrat, I don't see her being a shoe-in to win Jughead, er, Judd Gregg's Senate seat. Paul Hodes has been very popular and won his second House term with a comfortable margin. He also has a fairly compelling personal story. I don't think being a mom with kids is the first thing NH voters take into consideration when voting for our elected officials.
http://notkellyayotte.blogspot.com/

[noaxe397]

Does anyone know if Hodes runs for Greg's seat, is Hodes's congressional seat vulnerable?

[Skepticat]

If the republicans abandoned their base by becoming reasonable - replaced 95% of their candidates, and invented an amnesia machine that worked on voters - they could indeed make a comeback. Unfortunately you would have a better chance of seeing a great Auk or a nickel beer then an old style New England republican in todays GOP.

[jcwtts1]

I want this seat. There are real opportunities for the dems in 2010. FL, NH, OH, MO, KY, NC, IA, KS, LA all could be in play. More likely OH, MO, NC, LA are seats we have a good shot at, IA, KY, and LA are more of a push but it comes down to money. I don't know whether money moves votes in NH but it certainly does in OH, FL, MO, NC, LA, KY, and IA. We need these seats folks. We need the money to win these races. The GOP can't survive one more body blow. If we nail them in 2010 they might crack and go the way of the whigs.

J

[Bluedog12]

Lets see her in a debate. It ain't a courtroom.

[susanthe]

I'm not sure why I should trust in the political analysis of someone who was unable to spell the names of two candidates correctly. it's Mark Fernald, and Anne McLane Kuster. The Political Director needs a proof reader.

[LMPE]

A New England Republican? That's becoming rarer and rarer. It means that the candidate has to be something other than a racist, misogynist, anti-gay nut-job. Maybe Kelly Ayotte has a chance (I understand that New Hampshire is one of the most conservative states in the region), but still...

[BassMent]

The huge flaw in extrapolating from a possible Ayotte candidacy to the rest of the nation is that Ayotte is a popular figure in NH, charismatic and appealing, and one who does not hold extremist or reactionary views. This makes her an anomaly in the GOP of today.

The GOP doesn't seem to really be interested in moderate (or even sane) candidates, and I doubt that we'd see someone like Ayotte running elsewhere. The GOP is turning itself over to its racist, sexist, xenophobic and homophobic lunatic fringe, and I think we will see candidates reflecting the party's desire to solidify this "base" (currently 21% of American voters and falling).

If the GOP continues its headlong rush toward becoming a regional party, it may be that NH, like a handful of western plains states, may be one of the few Republican-leaning outposts outside of the deep south. It's going to become mighty lonely for granite staters, as New England, already a stronghold of progressive politics, moves further and more staunchly into the "D" column.

[Doofus]

That's as accurate an analysis as you're likely to see. NH has been trending Demo
in recent years, but it's still home to many flinty, rock-ribbed Repos, who just didn't
happen to care much for the previous administration. Mid-term elections almost
always go for the 'other' side, and while one hopes next year will be the exception,
it's not such a good idea to base your expectations on what might happen in NH.

[Progress08]

I don't think that anyone (certainly not many Republicans) that politics has changed. Sure he's a R appointed by a D, but that's irrelevant to reality of the Republican party. They are now controlled by the extreme right. You have to pass their litmus test to be a proper member of the party. New Hampshire is smart enough to recognize that just because you like someone doesn't mean that they won't adhere to the dogmatic mania of what their party leaders say. They do, after all, have to raise money and be celbrated by their constituents and that's kind of hard when your own party is attacking you for whatever issue you dared to disagree with them about.

[rugbymom]

That would be "she's a R. . . ." As the original story said, Kelly Ayotte is female and a mom and an excellent lawyer. I watched her for a day doing a gruesome murder case, when she was Assistant AG -- truly superb.

One major question is whether the Manchester Union Leader would be solidly behind her, or only lukewarm, or back some other candidate. The UL doesn't have the clout it did in the 1980s, but it still carries weight in many quarters.