The Vice Presidency: How Close to the Oval Office?

John McCain's surprise choice of Sarah Palin as the Republican nominee for vice president puts into sharp relief two simple questions: just how likely is the vice president to be called upon to occupy the Oval Office? And how likely is it, in particular, that Sarah Palin would become president in the event of a McCain victory?

More than two centuries of presidential history tell us that the ascent of vice president to the White House is a distressingly common event. Of the 43 men who have served as president, 21 percent (9 of 43) died in office of natural (Harrison, Taylor, Harding, Franklin Roosevelt) or unnatural causes (Lincoln, Garfield, McKinley, Kennedy) or were forced to resign (Nixon). Another five vice presidents (Adams, Jefferson, Van Buren, Nixon, George H.W Bush) were elected to the presidency, bringing the overall proportion of vice presidents who ultimately came to occupy the White House to over 30 percent (14 of the 46 men who have served as vice president).

The historical record makes clear that there is a substantial risk that any president might not be able to finish his or her term in office. But John McCain would be no ordinary president; at 72, he would be the oldest first-term president in the nation's history. Though one can only wish Senator McCain a long and healthy life, the national interest requires that we not shy away from an awkward question: how likely is it that a man of his age would die of natural causes during the next four years? According to data from the Social Security Administration, 15 percent of 72-year-old men die before they reach age 76.

Senator McCain, however, is not your average man of 72; he is a cancer survivor, having undergone surgery for skin cancer in August 2000. Physicians who have looked into his medical history have been encouraged by the fact that he has not had a recurrence in the eight years since the surgery; they estimate the chances of a recurrence at this point to be in the single digits. At the same time, they also note that he has at greater than average risk for melanoma and other forms of skin cancer because of his fair skin, extensive exposure to sun at a young age, and his medical history.

Finally, there is the delicate issue, given Senator McCain's age, of the possibility of mental deterioration during the presidency. The risks of both Alzheimer's and stroke increase with age, and declining cognitive function is a not uncommon experience among men and women in their seventies. Minor mental deterioration is often difficult to discern, but should major mental (or physical) decline occur, the 25th amendment provides for the vice-president to assume the duties of the president if the president is "unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office." Had the 25th amendment, passed in 1965 in the wake of President Kennedy's death, been in place earlier in the century, Woodrow Wilson would almost certainly have been replaced by his vice president after suffering a debilitating stroke at age 62 that was hidden from the public.

Taking all the risk factors together, what is the likelihood that a President McCain would have to be replaced by Governor Palin? While no precise estimate is possible, it seems almost certain that the 21 percent figure -- the proportion of presidents over 220 years of American history who have not completed their tern in office -- is on the low side. Given Senator McCain's age, medical history, and the very real possibility of a debilitating episode that would leave him unable to fulfill the duties of the office, the chance that the election of Senator McCain would mean a Palin presidency might be conservatively estimated at more than one in four.

The very thought of a president dying in office or being unable to carry out the duties of the presidency is deeply unsettling and I, like most Americans, fervently hope that that day never comes for the next or any future president. But it has happened before and it will, alas, at some point undoubtedly happen again. As Americans choose their next president, the question of the readiness of the respective vice presidential nominees to meet the awesome responsibilities of the most powerful position in the world may, if the past is any guide to the future, prove all too relevant.

Comments

[Clavis]

Who cares? She's a hockey mom, and she's perky and authentic-seeming! That's all I need!

...Oh, wait, I forgot: I'm not a brainless Republican "no-information" voter!



What's the difference between George W. Bush and Sarah Palin?

Lipstick!

[Karisma]

Too close for comfort!!!

[TheQuestion]

I think Mccain has already faced a debilitating series of events that make him unfit for the presidency.

[Atticusparis]

Have we heard the results of the most recent melanoma check of McCain a few weeks ago?
Hiding Sister Sarah is just another example of the pomposity of Bush/Cheney/McCain who believe that what they do is none of our f***ing business. It is that secrecy alone that has enabled them to continue in office for eight years; had their crimes been uncovered, they would be out and would be in prison. But the compliant, cowardly congress just let them hide.
They can run only BECAUSE they can hide . . . .

[Phaedrusnyc]

Their crimes HAVE been uncovered. They simply don't care. At least Nixon had the decency to try to cover things up.

[djarvis]

That is why McCain's choice of Palin is especially risky. She has absolutely no foreign policy experience. As governor, she made only one overseas trip - to visit some members of the Alaska National Guard in Kuwait. She has stated in one interview that she did not know much about the Iraq war and she has also stated that she doesn't know what a vice president does. Her views on the environment and a woman's right to chose are extremely right-wing conservative. Even the thought of her becoming president is downright scary!

[muffler]

Risky? Risky? Down right irresponsible!

[sueno]

Question?
Palin's husband dislikes this country and wants Alaska to secede from it.
Having served this country like McCain, how can he support someone like this on his ticket?
This is scary! It illustrates how far to the right the GOP has gone,
as well as what McCain is willing to give up to win.
These are terrible times indeed.

[MPCarr]

mother is 96 and going strong. We saw her at the RNC Convention.

[WorldofTomorrow420]

Mother irrelevant. Father and grandfather died younger than him.

[Incredulous]

No religious fanatic who believes in the End Times should ever, and I mean EVER have access to the big red button that could launch Armageddon! The religious extremists already want to facilitate the End Times, and putting one of them in a position to do just that is insane! America, have you gone insane?

[daffey]

You are absolutely right. And it isn’t just ‘given McCain’s health.’ Anything can happen. The VP is always and ever one heartbeat away, no matter what the health of the president. I’ve known too many over the years that were given a clean bill of health, only to be in the ICU unit a week later. And that is food for thought for anyone thinking about supporting McCain. Of course, since Palin’s resume is almost identical to Obama’s (they differ in their experience, but it all evens out in the end), it is a banquet for thought when you consider that, on day one of Obama’s presidency, he will have officially one day of experience in executive leadership. So you are right, experience is the issue.

[O-NO-notMcCain]

Four years takes its toll on just about every President I can think of. Take a look at McCain four years ago and imagine what four more years in a really high pressure job will do to him. The Republicans like to scare Americans over the security of our nation, but for some reason, I am more afraid now than I have been in the past. I can't understand how anyone can hand over their future to this ticket.

[TheSpacedManCenter]

The worst of it is, one suspects that the Republican "powers that be" (including Karl Rove) covertly responsible for selecting both McCain and Palin did so with exactly this possibility in mind. They are not crazy about McCain to start since his conservative bona fides are extremely suspect (despite his 90% support of the Bush administration). Thus their idea always WAS to find a VP candidate that could step into the Presidency in the LIKELY even that McCain is incapacitated or worse. Thus Palin is the one they really WANT to be President and are planning to have become President -- some real screamer (in her case literally if you've seen videos of her church services) who could never be elected on their own but who can ride in on McCain's coattails and then take over. Believe me folks, it IS all a plot....

[Babzter]

Using medical calculators and approved actuarial tables, his life expectancy is actually 72.

[salzy1]

Clearly, passions run deep for McCain as mine do for Obama. I definitely feel that unless you are very rich and in the corporate world, you benefit in no way from voting Republican. Those who vote against their own best interests are either a)extreme social conservatives b)racist. Which category are you in, McCain supporters?

Obama/Biden '08

[Pulemerci]

Bill Clinton was asked recently "Is Barack Obama ready to be President?" He replied "I don't know if anyone is ready to be President."

Whether you are a politician for 35 years, a war hero, a community organizer, or a Governor of a resource rich state, what does that tell us about how you would perform as POTUS. We're not smashing atoms here folks. Not to diminish the import of the office, but it is governing at the executive level. You appoint talented people and delegate authority. You use sound judgement and do your best. I think a dynamic, energetic and successful mother of five can handle it ,if need be.

[muffler]

Dude... there are minimums required. Her credentials wouldn't get her a middle management job in my company.

[albertcr]

42 men have served as president, not 43.