Observations from the Trenches in Maine

While it's difficult and, one might suggest, even slightly irresponsible to weigh in on our marriage equality loss so soon, it's also tough to sit on the sidelines while others make sweeping proclamations or conclusions, usually hundreds or thousands of miles away from Maine.

This was a very painful loss. The simple fact is that their margins were wider in the places they needed to win, and our winning margins were either smaller than we projected, or we lost bigger in places where we needed to keep it much closer. Clearly, there is town-by-town, city-by-city analysis we need to do and much of that is already underway.

Nonetheless, permit me to make a few observations.

First and foremost, marriage equality is a complex issue. Many people are conflicted and we know from national and state specific polling that it is very difficult to move people on this issue, particularly in the confines of short campaigns.

Secondly, our opponents capitalized on that conflict by constant distortion and misrepresentation. It reminds me of the movie, Supersize Me: why order a midsize coke when you can have a giant coke? Their bar is much lower than ours. They only have to plant and feed the doubt. And it is difficult to fully restore any reputation, be it an issue or character, that's plagued by constant doubt.

Remember, this was a campaign where we got up on the air first and where we put genuine Maine values as the context for supporting marriage equality. We used real Maine families: gay and lesbian Mainers and their kids, and parents who wanted all of their children treated equally under the law. In sharp contrast to other campaigns, gay and lesbian families were woven into our advertising and images as they are in society - organically and realistically.

We also acted and responded like a campaign: no negative went unanswered, and any paid media attack got a swift rebuttal, usually within 24 hours. The messages were tested, we were disciplined across media lines -- from earned and paid traditional media, to new media, including social networking sites and outlets.

We were also benefited by a strong coalition of 60 state and national organizations who gave us the help we asked for, but didn't ask to run the campaign. In short, we got the money and the support we needed to run the campaign we wanted to run.

But here's where it gets tricky and here's where we need some answers over the next several weeks or months. It's clear that polling research, both ours and others, did not capture the intensity of Yes on 1 support. Polling cannot predict turnout and the impact of Tuesday's turnout was counterintuitive. We weren't alone: our opponents, political observers and field operatives all believed a high turnout benefited the NO on 1 vote. With voting approaching 60% in Maine, it's clear that wasn't true.

Here's what I do believe after some sleep and a break from the caffeine: we moved the equality ball further up the hill, not just in Maine, but everywhere else. Voters do need these conversations which we had by the tens of thousands; they do need to see real gay and lesbian couples and their children up close and personal; and they do need to be reminded that these are neighbors and soccer coaches we're talking about, not "homosexual activists" which is the well worn handle our opponents trot out.

I'm not skirting anything here when I suggest that we need to remember that it was not long ago when we were losing in double digits, when they threw an anti-marriage equality question on a ballot in a presidential year to drive conservatives to the polls.

It may turn out to be simply this: that by moving this basic premise of equality from the sink hole of catastrophic defeat state after state, year after year, to within striking distance of a win, that we are almost to the finish line. This tide is turning and you can tell by the histrionics from our opponents, from their "gathering storm."

It's not fast enough for most of us, certainly not for the families who deserve the same basic protections my wife, son and I enjoy, but we're getting close. We will learn more from Maine, we will keep making progress and we will win.

Let no one doubt -- least of all our opponents -- that we're in this for the long haul, until all Maine families are treated equally. This has always been much more than another campaign. It's about love and family and that will always be something worth fighting for.

Jesse Connolly was the NO on 1/Protect Maine Equality campaign manager.

 

Comments

[kirka123]

"we moved the equality ball further up the hill, not just in Maine, but everywhere else."

So true. The conversation is changing.

The vote in Maine is what can be called a "good" loss. Heart-breaking, yes, but the debate is changing. 47% is an amazing number and though it's not the tipping point yet, it really is amazing, considering the centuries of fear and prejudice and misinformation that No on 1 was battling. Thank you for your hard work, Mr Connely.

[John Visser]

Thank you Jesse for your compassion, your dedication to justice, and your relentless hard work. I know your father is very proud of you - and so are we.

[pdquick]

Yes! You are exactly right. The campaign gave precisely the message you needed to send, and doing it as you did it "moved the equality ball farther up the hill." We are so much closer to the day because of this campaign. This Californian thanks you.

[rextrek]

You said:
First and foremost, marriage equality is a complex issue. Many people are conflicted and we know from national and state specific polling that it is very difficult to move people on this issue, particularly in the confines of short campaigns.

...Equalit­y SHOULD NOT BE a COMPLEX issue is America...­. do the words "Liberty & Justice for All" mean anything? ...or arethey JUST words/ EMPTY meanlingless words to make America sound better then it actually is?
....LGBT Americans are DENIED EQUALITY under the guise of Religious Tyranny ....and Pick & choose Buy-Bull references to Hold GAy people to a HIGHER standard then any hetero cpl / who are strangers that run off to Vegas and get married...­or a Convicted Hetero Murderer in Jail for life (has the RIGHT to Marry) before law abiding tax paying LGBT Americans.
...the over 1300 Federal Rights GIVEN Freely to hetero cpls and denied to LGBT Americans.
....the lil' kid had it Right in Arkansas ..about NOT stand up to say the Pledge of Allegiance­......Cuse the words are NOT true in America 2009!!!!!!!

[eyecon]

Jesse makes a good point. All that our opponents required was to provide uncertain people with permission slips to oppose marriage equality. A "yes" on One preserved the status quo, As such, it was not really a decision. It was safe. Ultimately, this became a contest framed by whether or not "homosexual marriage" would be taught in schools. It was the Briggs Initiative battle. What turned the tide against Briggs was the support of Ronald Reagan (of all people).

No On One did not get the full-throated support of President Obama. Senators Collins and Snowe were noticeably missing in action as well.

The school children meme is not only dishonest but highly inflammatory. As in California, it served to politely suggest the stereotypical bigotry of "recruitment," "indoctrination" and molestation. The next time around (and there WILL be a next time), we need to find a better way to handle this. Perhaps, we should introduce this as diversity education before the religious right frames this in cynical and false terms.

What Jesse did not mention is that marriage equality opponents had a captive audience every Sunday in the pews. There they were fed a steady diet of homophobia and misinformation.

[Frustrated in PA]

I for one am very proud of the work your organization did in Maine. Equality for all is a basic constitutional right. I am reminded of Harvey Milk when he ran and lost several times but each time he considered it a "win" because he lost by less votes each time. Tenacity and perseverence.

Nevertheless, I am also reminded that Harvey Milk did not consider that "homosexual activism" was a bad thing. Being pissed off can get a lot of things done and activism is where that anger can be properly channeled.

[aftershock]

Taking this to the ballot box over and over and over again will not win LGBT citizens the rights they are promised in this country. By and large, "the people" simply will not do anything unless they are affected by it.