Republicans like to say their current primary fight is "just like" the 2008 primary between Obama and Clinton -- but it's just wishful thinking.
Mitt Romney, Mitch McConnell,
Democratic voters were satisfied with their options, Republican are not: In January 2008, NBC/WSJ found 81% of Democrats satisfied with their options for president. However, this week's CNN/ORC poll found only 55% of Republicans satisfied, with 44% dissatisfied. And this is not a new or unique finding. In this volatile race, dissatisfaction among GOP voters is one of the only constants (CBS/NYT trend data).
Given this dissatisfaction with the field, the eventual nominee may have a tougher time uniting his base than Obama did in 2008.
Democrats were excited and turned out in record numbers, Republicans have not: the enthusiasm that propelled Republicans to majority control of the House in 2010 has not carried over to 2012. Just 38% of Republican primary voters are "more enthusiastic" about voting in 2012 than in previous elections. In 2008, 58% of Democratic primary voters were more excited about voting than usual.
In another key indicator of enthusiasm, voter turnout, this year's Republicans again lag behind Democrats in 2008. Democrats smashed turnout records in
The Republican candidates' images are deteriorating; Obama's and Clinton's did not: NBC/WSJ polling in early 2008 shows Obama and Clinton net-favorable among voters nationwide despite their bitter primary fight. The same is not true for current GOP contenders. Romney and Gingrich's negatives have jumped in recent months, and this week Pew found none of the remaining GOP candidates are net-favorable (something true in CBS/NYT polling last month, and Margie covered here).
Clinton & Obama faced less pressure to prove they were "severely liberal": because similar numbers of Democrats found both Clinton and Obama "liberal," neither faced pressure to outflank the other on the left. (Recall on health care Obama successfully positioned himself to Clinton's right.) But the GOP field has devoted significant time trying to "out-conservative" one another, whether on contraception, immigration, climate change (it's a "phony mess" ), or even the very word "conservative." Their movement to the right could prove problematic this fall as they try to woo general election voters.
Pundits like to put things in perspective by making comparisons to the recent past. In the sports world right now, the comparison is Jeremy Lin to Tim Tebow -- both are former benchwarmers who led their teams on improbable win-streaks, right? Yes, but if you dig deeper the similarities end there.
The same is true of comparisons between the 2008 and 2012 primary battles. Yes, both saw months of bitter inter-party fighting before a nominee emerged. But differences between the two elections abound, many of which could spell trouble for Republicans in the fall.
The GOP primary of 2012 has had low turnouts-numbers easily manipulated by a few haters. In the battle for those haters, the lowest common denominator among them, the candidates are going to negative extremes, sinking so low in their desperation-they should be ashamed. Their voters may feel the need to take a shower after supporting the eventual choice.
let's get the abbreviation correct and call it what it is: trying to out con each other (and the "base")
One big mistake that Reagan made was to accept the support of the Religious Right. Carter was their golden boy; their born again candidate. But Carter let them down on the social issues front and Reagan, without wooing their support, played the Religious Right's game of Red Rover. Reagan never gave them much on the social spectrum either (in fact, he passed pro-choice legislation as CA governor), but they loved his tough talk on communism.
When Bush 1 ran for prez, he boldly courted the Religious Right endorsement and thus began the GOP's downward spiral into religious fanaticism. There is nothing conservative about it and none of these candidates are conservative because of it. If they would only tell the RR to go to H then Conservative Democrats and independants might play their own game of Red Rover.