Paul Ryan was one of the last candidates I thought Mitt Romney would choose as his running mate. I always thought the risk of a Medicare fight would render Ryan an honorable mention on the short list. Despite my surprise, as a Democrat I am concerned the Obama team may underestimate Paul Ryan.
Due in part to economic uncertainty, voters took a chance on Obama in 2008. Â Although President Obama can argue the country would have been worse off without his actions in office, voters are still feeling a challenging economy. Â They may be willing to take a risk with Ryan when they wouldn't at any other time.
Paul Ryan, as a candidate, is prepared and effective. He simply should not be underestimated. No matter how confident the Obama team is in the substance of its arguments against Paul Ryan, they cannot take him lightly.
When it comes to substance, saying Paul Ryan does his homework is an understatement. Agree with Ryan (and his ideas) or not, he knows the details and the big picture. He will anticipate every argument Democrats can make and he will be prepared to respond. The Obama team needs to be just as prepared.
In terms of style, Ryan is not the caricature fire-breathing conservative that is supposed to scare children and small animals. He won't raise his voice like Chris Christie. Ryan will listen and he will calmly and respectfully respond.
In 1980, the Carter campaign painted Reagan as a dangerous extremist. What the American people saw was a happy-go-lucky man who did not seem like the monster they had come to expect.
To be clear, I do not believe Paul Ryan is the political athlete Ronald Reagan was. But let's not give him the opportunity to appear anywhere close to it.
Finally, it is not in Mitt Romney's nature to make erratic decisions. Although I don't quite understand this pick, Romney is too methodical to make a choice like this without gaming out all the options and consequences.
Surely Romney thoroughly considered that Democrats would pounce on Ryan over Medicare. Could it be that Romney would rather have the scrutiny on his running mate so that it takes the target off of him and Bain? Also, consider the Romney-Ryan ticket has already used questions about Medicare to pivot and talk about the Affordable Healthcare Act. This is clearly part of an overall strategy.
The Ryan pick may have taken us by surprise, but we underestimate this ticket at our own peril. The Obama team cannot afford to take Romney's choice of Paul Ryan lightly.
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 |
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| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
After the Ryan choice, Romney became more energized, and they both wasted no time putting Obama on the defensive by saying that he "stole" money from Medicare to fund his ACA...although they both seem to be scant on their own economic policies...telling us that they will reveal them in "the light of day"...after the election.
Romney and Ryan are also doing much better than Obama with raising campaign donations, which means that they can buy more ads to spread their lies...sling enough mud, and some of it is bound to stick...and it forces Obama to constantly defend himself.
I don't think that Romney will win, though, even with the bad economy, and Ryan will have to step up and explain how his budget will work, which I don't think that he can. And I also think that the questions of Romney's taxes and Bain employment record will dog him right up until election day.
If Ryan brings the kind of pizzazz to the campaign that you envision, he will overshadow Romney. That would ultimately be to Romney's detriment so he cannot allow that to happen. The Big Dog at the top of the ticket always has to be perceived as that. At best, Ryan will be Seamus the Second, perched atop the car for everybody to see, but never in the driver's seat.
Moreover, Ryan doesn't provide balance to the ticket like Nixon did for Ike, Mondale did for Carter, or Bush did for Reagan. That's because Romney never was able to tack to the middle and so they are now both hitched to the radical right. Also, on balance he won't change the electoral college count like LBJ did for Kennedy. Rubio would have been a better pick for that. Ryan is more like Agnew as Nixon's hatchet man and maybe a little Cheney ideological purity with a modicum of gravitas. He can generate some enthusiasm with the base, but any discussion of Ryan's ideology, plans, and ideas will not take place in the swing states because his ideas are toxic for most swing voters there.
Romney could certainly win, but my rating of Ryan is net neutral for now with a moderate chance of bringing negatives to the campaign.
Romney has Never been "In Charge".