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Merton and Joan Bernstein

Merton and Joan Bernstein

Posted: September 27, 2010 05:12 PM

The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility, charged by President Obama to recommend ways to reduce the federal deficit, appears fixated on Social Security. The commission co-chairs and several members have advocated reducing benefits and raising the retirement age, another benefit cut. The question is why? Could it be because Social Security:

• Pays its own way, does not and cannot add to the deficit, but produces surpluses, already totaling $2.77 trillion and projected to exceed $ 4 trillion?
• Pays benefits only to those "entitled" by satisfying prescribed eligibility requirements - extensive periods of work and contribution?
• Insures family members - starting at birth - against income loss due to an earner's death, disability or retirement?
• Reduces poverty program more effectively than any other program, especially for older women?
• Generates billions of dollars in beneficiary purchasing power that fuel hundreds of billions in sales and millions of jobs?
• Has non-benefit costs below one percent of benefits paid?

None seems like a reason to diminish the program.

Social Security is a model of fiscal responsibility. Three dedicated sources fund it: a modest payroll tax; income taxes on the benefits of high earners; and market-rate interest the U.S. Treasury pays on funds it borrows from Social Security. They will suffice to pay for benefits in full for decades. The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) purposely ameliorates the impact of the payroll tax on low earners by reducing their incomes taxes. That explains why many people pay more in payroll taxes than in income taxes.

Moreover, the law permits benefit payments only if there are funds on hand to pay them; and Social Security has no authority to borrow. So, Social Security not only does not increase the deficit, it cannot.

Social Security's trust fund derives from its revenue not immediately needed to pay benefits. The U. S. Treasury issues certificates of obligation to the Social Security trust fund for those surpluses. Starting around 2024, Treasury will begin to repay those loans. This can be done most readily by: expanding the economy thereby improving wages and enlarging payroll tax revenues, and gradually raising the cap on taxable wages (now at $106,800 a year), to its historical level. Increasing the payroll tax rate by only 1 % on employer and employee, starting years from now, if needed, would complete the program to achieve long-term actuarial balance.

The commission seems to ignore justifiable and politically palatable ways to trim the deficit, such as tackling the hundreds of billions in tax subsidies enjoyed by those already best off: for example, tax deductions for interest on mortgages for second homes. There's much more where that came from.( If we ignore those sources, Treasury will have to borrow to pay - not for Social Security - that's already been paid for without borrowing - but for the other non-Social Security outlays hitherto paid for by borrowing from the Social Security trust fund.

Some commentators, such as New York Times political columnist Matt Bai, inaccurately assert that the U.S. Treasury bonds in the trust are merely worthless IOUs. Can they really not know that governments and private trust funds buy such obligations by the billions because they are regarded as valuable and reliable?

Some assert that Social Security is unsustainable because retiree ranks are growing faster than the working population. You've heard the litany: in 1950, 16 people paid payroll taxes for each retiree; today that's 3.3 people; in a few decades that will be 2.2 for each retiree. It seems plausible that this apparently worsening "aged dependency ratio," spells calamity for Social Security.

But if that trend were so lethal, with the shrinkage from 16:1 to 3.3:1, Social Security should have run aground. Instead it creates huge surpluses. For one thing, technological advances enable most of today's employees to produce more goods and services than comparable individuals did in 1950.

Agriculture provides a dramatic demonstration. In 1900, almost 40% of the work force farmed; today fewer than 2% do. By the "logic" of the aged dependency ratio, we should be starving. But farms produce quite enough for us to eat, with plentiful leftovers to export.

The slogan "We live longer, so we should work longer" attempts to justify the proposal to raise Social Security retirement age. We don't have to raise it to provide incentives to work longer. Present law provides them: each year of delayed retirement generates higher benefits. And it is perverse to try to goad people to work longer when we see the doleful effects of mass unemployment - which can recur.

In 2009 (the last year reported), Social Security paid out $658 billion in benefits to 52.5 million beneficiaries, including almost 3.5 million children. Those payments quickly translate into business income and wages rapidly and repeatedly; economists call that "the multiplier effect."

Some use an entirely inapplicable meaning of "entitlement" to sneer at Social Security and Medicare. With these social insurance programs, "entitlement" means a legal right earned by satisfying statutory eligibility requirements - years of work and contributions. Alas, Alan Simpson qualified for commission membership even though unable to tell the difference between an earned entitlement and a cow's tits (his unfortunate language).

Advocates of knifing Social Security argue that it would show "the markets" that we are serious about addressing U.S. deficits. That sounds quite as effective as appeasing the gods by sacrificing live virgins.

Simply put, misinformation and misunderstanding, much of it deliberate, fuel the mistaken notion that we can pare the federal deficit by trimming Social Security. That path would lead to undiminished deficits, more poverty, less purchasing power, less business income and more unemployment

 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
bluevistas
10:39 AM on 09/30/2010
doesn't matter...

The forces to privatize SS, reduce benefits, increase eligibility age, etc. are now in power and are lusting.
02:15 AM on 09/29/2010
Another reason that many, if not most, workers pay more to payroll taxes than income taxes is that payroll tax is paid on all wages, while income tax does not get paid on deferred wages, e.g., that got to 401(k) accounts. Having said this, I was shocked the other day to see President Obama on CNBC telling us that 60% of the federal budget goes to entitlements. How could he be so ignorant? He should know that Social Security more than pays for itself from the payroll tax, and that Medicare is not far behind. Medicaid is a 50/50 thing with the states. He either does not get this, or he was being dishonest with an electorate that does not want to be told that it is the military industrial complex and all the U.S. corporations at the public trough in Washington D.C. that give us our federal deficit every year. It is NOT Social Security. It would be awful if the Debt Commission comes out and blames SS for our building deficit. Awful.
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07:15 AM on 09/29/2010
But he is not wrong. SS and Medicare are NOT part of hte budget that I am aware of. He is talking about the budget for the General Fund only.

http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy10/pdf/hist.pdf

This is the historical table section of the FY 10 Budget for the General Fund. go to page 55, and look at the lines by superfunction. Their are two problems with actually coming up with the 60% number, one easily accounted for, one not so easy.

Take the "Human Resource" superfuntion, subtract out Medicare and the off budget portion of Social Security (2007 numbers). You get something in the $700B range. That number, compared to the $550B or so for Defense, probably comes close to 60%.

The second problem that is harder to account for, is that this the THE BUDGET, remember? All that supplemental funding (and other programs like cash for clunkers) may or may not be part of this "budget". "The budget" is not what the government spends every year, it is just the portion which receives the most attention and scrutiny.

Having said that, you are correct, SS and Med do not add to the deficit, therefore cutting them will have no impact on the deficit. But, SS and Med are NOT fully funded for the 75 year projection that the government uses to guage the health of the programs. Some adjustmenets ARE needed to the programs in order to align revenues with outlays, just like in 1983.
03:45 PM on 09/28/2010
The attack on Social Security is just beyond belief in terms of it thieving and stealing depraved audacity. The Social Security Trust fund has an over $2 Trillion surplus. This surplus is expected to reach $4 Trillion before it starts being consumed by the Baby Boomers. There is no CRISIS. There is no URGENT issue. This is a smokescreen for the Billionaires to steal even more of this country's wealth. Until RAVENOUS GREED is stopped by confiscatory taxes on our Billionaires, our Middle Class will continue to wither and die with uncountable broken dreams.
JNarragansett
Check your premises
12:58 PM on 09/28/2010
Anyone who believes that SS is fully funded with the IOUs I offer you this trade. I'll take your life savings, and you can write yourself an IOU. Even though you'll give me your money, according to your logic, you'll still be funded with the IOU.
02:24 AM on 09/29/2010
Does this mean that you have your life savings under your mattress? That would be about the only way to have it not be in some kind of an institution that you trust to return your money when due. That is how it works with Social Security and the money that the Trust Fund is owed. It will be repaid as it is needed. That is the only way our country can be perceived as solvent, even after all the years under George W. Bush when we did not pay for our wars, the tax cuts, or the 2003 Medicare Moderization Act and its payout to the drug companies.
JNarragansett
Check your premises
01:57 PM on 09/30/2010
Does that mean you'd be willing to take me up on my offer?
12:13 PM on 09/28/2010
"But if that trend were so lethal, with the shrinkage from 16:1 [in 1950] to 3.3:1, Social Security should have run aground. Instead it creates huge surpluses."

You conveniently omitted the fact that the Social Security base has increased 230% since 1950 and the Social Security tax rate has increased 313% since 1950. Could that have had anything to do with the fact that Social Security is still solvent?

"raising the cap on taxable wages (now at $106,800 a year), to its historical level"

How do you define the historical level? In 1937, the Social Security base was $3,000. That's $45,481.67 in today's dollars. Thus, one could argue that the Social Security base is already 135% above its historical level.

Since you're so keen on historical levels, how about we return a few other things to historical levels? Let's raise the retirement age so that the ratio of workers to retirees goes back to its historical level of 16:1. And let's put the Social Security tax rate back to its historical level of 2%. That should be enough historical levels to satisfy everyone.
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01:25 PM on 09/28/2010
Actually, since 1950 the Social Security Tax rate has gone up over 400%, from 1.5% in 1950 to 6.2% today.

While your changing things to "historical levels", heres another one. Today, if a person legally immigrates to the US, in order to decrease the burden on their family they can bring their parents here who can immediately claim Social Security benefits without having paid a penny into the system. There is a special program for this.

Of note, historically, the age has been rasied, payment levels have changed, and taaxes have risen, in order to balance the fund.

If you describe Social Security as a "pay as you go", as the authors do, then at some point in time the pillars of the program need to change in order to reflect the realities of available funds.
09:27 AM on 11/20/2010
There is a social security parent's benefit, but in order for the parent who received
one-half support from the worker at his/her death or disability to receive it the social security worker has to be deceased.
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01:38 PM on 09/28/2010
Back of the envelope math works, back of the brain math does not. Your right, 313%.
09:59 AM on 09/28/2010
Ever so mistakenly...
blogisti
Censor Approved Knowledge Only
09:53 AM on 09/28/2010
The largest social programs are tax write offs, write downs, exemptions, bailouts, avoidance, by Corporations and individuals. There would be no financial problems in America if those institutions and individuals at the top paid as much tax as those on the bottom. I am talking actually paying. The working stiff has to pay because he has no way to avoid it. The rich and Corporations have numerous ways to avoid or severely limit taxes actually paid.
You can bet that the Commission will not look at these "loop holes" but rather at social programs that affect the poor and middle class. In other words, the Commission decisions will reflect its constituents of note, the rich. In America the "little people" pay every time.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Skeptical Patriot
03:15 AM on 09/28/2010
The authors incorrectly assert the SS# does not add to the deficit. Over the recent past, the "surpluses" have been used for other purposes and in the next few years, it will be a net negative growing from 5% of GDP to 6% of GDP. The truth is the deficit is driven by years of payouts that do not properly judge improved longevity. However, it is relatively easy to bring the system into parity. Several very low pain choices that would completely protect those 55 years and older and slowing increase retirement age or slightly lower the assumed rate of inflation by a 1% point.

The real long-term fiscal challenge is healthcare costs. Total medicare and medicaid (NOT counting the rest of healthcare inflation) is expected to increase from it's current ~5% of GDP to 12% of GDP over next 30 years, funded by tax payers. This is simply unsustainable. To put that in perspective in 2009 - massive military spending = 23% of budget, SS = 20%, and Medicare/Medicaid = 17%. ALL other federal spending = 40% of budget AND we are running a $1.4T deficit. Medical inflation will cause massive future deficits and crowd out all other govt spenidng. Just won't work. We need fiscal reform of medical spending and capitation on medical spending, a cap of SS, and cutting military spending by half all of this will still require tax increases or we blow up. The facts dont lie.
07:53 AM on 09/28/2010
You say that In 2024, Social Security will start out being 5% of the GDP then grow to 6% of the GDP. I assume that is when the government starts paying back the money owed to Social Security when they cash in the US treasury bonds. Where did the 5% come from? That is probably a worse case scenario. Due to the bad economy and joblessness, many are taking their Social Security early, which means lower benefits for them and a savings for Social Security in the long run.

We moved the full retirement age up in 1983 from 65 to 67 to make up for living longer. Statistics show that most lower paid workers only live two years longer, but the higher paid earners live 6 years longer. Raising the cap without raising the benefits will take in more money from the higher earners. Since they live longer, they are getting more benefits already.

Medicare is a mess, because of no bidding allowed on prescription drugs and no cost control.
09:22 AM on 09/28/2010
Sister Ann - Medicare is not a mess, it is enormously efficiet. It pays out 97 cents on every dollar of benefits. That's fabulous. But, the prescription drug rogram - as you say - is a mess because of the ban on negotaiation on prices imposed by the Republican Congress under Tom DeLay. That shoul;d be fixed. The sooner the better. Merton Bernstein
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Skeptical Patriot
01:24 PM on 09/28/2010
Sister Ann, the 5% is the current year % of budget spend on Social Security. The problem is that % revenues in future years does not rise with expenditures. However, as I pointed out, it is not the real problem. It grows as a deficit matter but the real problem is Medicare. Unfortunately, drugs are a small portion of the problem
12:34 AM on 09/28/2010
The authors' thinking is confused. first, soc sec'ty does impact the deficit. Historically, the soc sec'ty annual surplus (which is reported in the gen'l fund) makes the gen'l fund's deficit lower than it really is. That reverses in 3 or 4 years when the fund starts paying out more than it takes in. The soc sec'ty annual shortfall will now exacerbate future deficits. As the gov't bonds are called in by the fund, the gov't has to further deficit spend to pay them. Their "age dependency argument" that 3 workers can more easily afford to fund 1 retiree because workers produce more is rediculous. Soc sec'ty has nothing to do with what we produce. Might be time for these two to retire. Scares me that they are professors teaching our youth.
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01:29 PM on 09/28/2010
The National Debt is composed of public debt and intergovernmental debt. When you see the big trillions, that is everything lumped in, its no hidden.

Inteerstingly, of the the intra-governmental debt (i.e. trust funds) Social Security is the largest but only accounts for half of the entire debt. Highway trust Fund is another one. Research National Debt and check out the intra-governmental stuff. We owe a lot more money to.....ourselves.....than just Social Security.
01:38 PM on 09/28/2010
Interesting. I didn't know that. Where do you find those intergovernmental debt amounts?

i was actually referring to the annual deficit. Since Soc Sec'ty net in/out flows are thrown in there for acctg sake, the surpluses we've been running every year forever have made the annual deficit look smaller than it actually is. That reverses in three years when soc sec'ty takes in less than pays out. The net difference will inflate the annual deficit. That is one of the issues the commission is wrestling with.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
OSCPJ
Want it? Work 4 it. No 1 has ever drown in sweat.
09:39 PM on 09/27/2010
Can any of you Liberals explain how CBO has said SS is affordable?  Cuts are going to happen. Just like they do every year when CPI is used versus real inflation.
01:45 PM on 09/28/2010
The interesting report to read is the annual report from the soc sec'ty trustees. If you read through it, you'll see that projecting out 75 years the fund is $5 trillion short in today's dollars of what it needs to honor its commitments. this is one of the big issues the Deficit Commission is working on. A lot of people here focus on the fact that the fund has enough in it to last until 2037. They fail to recognize that at that point there is no more money and at that time there will be only 2 or 3 workers paying for each retiree. They think looking out 75 years is too long. Well, everyone who will be alive in 75 years, using actuarial tables, is alive right now, so using basic assumptions on lifespan, inflation, etc actuarials can give a decent prediction of the fund's balances.
KIampfbeobachter
Misanthropic economic and political shaman
06:36 PM on 09/27/2010
Anyone thirty years or older who votes Republican on Nov. 2nd. votes his/her Social Security out of existence.
Rep. Boehner is on record with the statement: we need to cut Social Security and Medicare to pay for our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
This gentleman is the enemy of every senior citizen in this country. Let's not forget that!
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
OSCPJ
Want it? Work 4 it. No 1 has ever drown in sweat.
09:47 PM on 09/27/2010
I'm 38, paid the last 20 years. 

No matter what party I belong to.  Please explain, if given the chance (To end this Ponzi scheme) I was offered the chance to never collect SS in exchange for paying SS taxes, what the majority of people my age would do?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
silverstreet
All you need is love
10:02 PM on 09/27/2010
They would be fools to get out of Social Security. Wait until you're 60 and you'll understand. You need a LOT of money to retire. LOTS of it! You think you can save a million dollars? Not easy.
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mrclark
I search for the America I believed in as a boy.
06:14 PM on 09/27/2010
The fiscal commission targets Social Security because contracts with the middle class are not as important as contract's are with Wall Street. If you want to pare back the debt take the money from Wall Street that was given them through TARP and the FED window and most of your debt is fixed. People on the commission are all generally well off, so they do not want to see the wealthy have to pay for their actions which wrecked the economy when it is easier to take money from the working people. It is class warfare behind the thin veil of fixing Social Security. Remember, "Let them eat cake", for this philosophy is well and alive in America today.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
Welib
Peace on Earth!
05:52 PM on 09/27/2010
'Advocates of knifing Social Security argue that it would show "the markets" that we are serious about addressing U.S. deficits.'   

No, they won't think that at all.  The rest of the world believes in the looking after their populations.  They have cradle to grave health care, SS and all kinds of programs to care for the health of their people. 

The world thinks we're still living in the dark ages and they are appalled by how we DON'T treat our people.

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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
OSCPJ
Want it? Work 4 it. No 1 has ever drown in sweat.
09:51 PM on 09/27/2010
Do you really think all those Third World countries with low salaries and high unemployment actually think paying people for NOT working is good.  I remember several times in Africa, have people lined up to burn feces, not a good job, but a paying job.

How about we make people actually WORK to receive govt cash?  Explain the arguement to someone who PAYS taxes.  Why do I have to pay for people who don't work?  Any day now.......Didn't think so.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
silverstreet
All you need is love
10:03 PM on 09/27/2010
The elderly, the disabled -- should just be thrown onto the garbage heap. Yes, that's capitalism!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
CosmicIrony
12:07 PM on 09/28/2010
I have been paying Social Security taxes for 40 years, and I damn sure expect to collect SS when I retire, at which point I will not be working.
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05:42 PM on 09/27/2010
the only benefit to fiscal responsibility would be that it would allow the US to default on its debt owed to the trust fund. I cannot see any other benefit and that certainly would show the markets that our bonds will always be honored- wouldnt it?
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
OSCPJ
Want it? Work 4 it. No 1 has ever drown in sweat.
09:52 PM on 09/27/2010
I'm confused.  Fiscal responsibility means NOT defaulting.  I understand that is the Liberals goal, to default.  It can't be stopped.  It will happen.

I always thought "Fiscal responsibility" meant paying off debts you signed up for?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
antiplutocrat
04:30 AM on 09/28/2010
You've put your finger on the problem. The money taxpayers have put into the SS fund is represented by Treasury Bonds. The actual money has been spent on other things (for example: defense spending). In order to pay out benefits that tax payers have already paid for, the Treasury Bonds must be redeemed. The US government cannot redeem the Treasure Bonds because they have already spent the money and there isn't enough new revenue. So, the government can either default on the Treasurey Bonds and not pay legitimate beneficiaries or the government can increase the deficit and meet obligations to legitimate beneficiaries.

P.S. If the SS money had not been spent on other things, the SS fund would be liquid until 2037. It wouldn't be until 2037 that benefits would exceed funds; plenty of time to fix the system.
08:32 AM on 09/28/2010
It is some of the republican leader's dream to default. They want to privatize retirements and give the money to Wall Street.

Most Democrats want Social Security to be fully paid.